Creighton vs UConn Odds, Picks and Predictions: High Scores in Storrs, CT

Defending National Champion and presumed current best in the land No. 1 Connecticut will welcome Creighton to town in what is sure to be an entertaining Big East affair.

The Huskies are looking to do it again. They've dropped one in the non-conference and one in the Big East, but since that loss to Seton Hall, have rattled off five straight. Uconn's last victim was Georgetown. A game in which they barely got out of second gear and won by 13 points. The Jays have been impressive over the last few weeks in their own right. They lost a challenging road game to Marquette but have won four straight since then, including the most recent win over a St John's team with tons of momentum. This contest should be compelling, with both teams playing some of their best basketball of the season.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out as I break down the college basketball odds and offer my free best college basketball picks and predictions for Wednesday, January 17.

Creighton vs UConn best odds

Creighton vs UConn picks and predictions

"We've often been accused of not being able to win a mud fight," Creighton Head Coach Greg McDermott said. "(On Saturday), we did."

It's true. We've seen this story with the Jays for a few years now. 

The high-flying, entertaining offense looks like it's impossible to stop until suddenly it faces an above-average defense and/or until it's in a muddied game. This team is trying to break that mold of teams of yesteryear, and in games against St. John's and Oklahoma State, among others, it's been able to do that. Tonight will be a heightened challenge of that degree as the Jays will face one of the best defenses they've faced all season and a team that can win in various ways – including a "mud fight". And that's what this handicap comes down to. Can Creighton answer the bell against a defense that, from time to time, possesses the skill set to lock them down? I say less. At least enough to get this Over the total, and that's what I'm rolling with for my best bet. 

Creighton has a few paths to getting consistent offense here. The most obvious is what its shooters can do, especially from deep. It's no surprise that McDermott would once again have an array of sharpshooters that spread you out and make you defend. This team is no different. It'll enter this game with one of the country's best spot-up shooting efficiency numbers, ranking in the top 2% of basketball in points per possession on these sets. The trio of Mason Miller, Trey Alexander, and Baylor Scheierman present some defense nightmares, but it should mainly be able to do it tonight. This Uconn defense has been pretty bad at defending shooters.

They'll arrive at this game allowing over 41% shooting on spot-up sets. That's not good. It's one of the worst in the entire conference. Being reliant on jump shots going in is a dicey proposition because of the variance that will come. However, in this spot, I'm comfortable because Creighton has so many of them, and according to ShotQuality, the Jays are still due for some positive regression. It's a good spot for the Jays to rain down from deep potentially.

On the other side of the ball, Creighton's ball screen defense should struggle to slow down Tristen Newton, and when he gets going, the offense runs downhill. 

The Jays drop defensive scheme has left them susceptible to being scored on pick-and-roll situations, and to no surprise, that's what has happened to them. Creighton is allowing just over .80 points per possession on pick-and-roll sets, and that's a number that's going up in conference play. That rating is alright, but being simply average isn't good enough against one of the best pick-and-roll offenses in the country.

The offense has been challenging to come by in this series, which is surprising given that both teams play similar defense coverages and thus should be privy on how to score against it. While that's not been the case in the past, there are plenty of reasons to suggest that changes today. While both teams have half-court advantages, both should be incentivized to speed things up. These are two elite transition offenses against average defenses in these spots. I projected this number to be around 150.5, so I'm comfortable taking it.

My best bet: Over 144.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Creighton vs UConn same-game parlay

Over 144.5

Tristen Newton Over 16.5 points

+198 at FanDuel

We're taking our best bet of Over and pairing it with the safest assumption on the game: Newton to score.

As we highlighted above, Creighton's ball screen defense has struggled mightily at times this year, and today, they'll be facing one of the best scoring point guards in basketball currently. There's no reason to think that Newton doesn't have much success getting to the rim early. Newton should make it three of the last four games to exceed this number.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Creighton vs UConn spread and Over/Under analysis

I lean to the Jays on the spread and will take the +6 for a unit. 

Crieghton can win this one outright, too. There's a reason that the Jays have dominated this series since, as of late, winning six of the last seven. Part of it is what we discussed above: Uconn's lack of ability to defend the many shooters it will see—the storyline of Donovon Clingan's status. Without him, the Huskies are without their best rim protector, which sets them up to be scored upon from inside and out. He's a game-time decision, but the tea leaves point to him not playing. 

The Over is our best bet. I have to follow what my projection sees as a significant edge. 

While Creighton has been on a recent run of Unders, Uconn has not. The Huskies' last four games have all gone over, and three have done so by a pretty healthy margin. While that hasn't been the case for the Jays, I have less concern because that's largely been because of the tempo of the other team. No matter the tempo tonight, it should be one conducive with points. 

Creighton vs UConn betting trend to know

Connecticut has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.65 Units / 41% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. UConn.

Creighton vs UConn game info

Creighton vs UConn key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic