The No. 11 Duke Blue Devils face off against the Pittsburgh Panthers in ACC action on Tuesday night. The Blue Devils are on a six-game winning streak and look to repeat as conference champions and make a March Madness odds run. They've also won 10 of 12 meetings between these programs since Pittsburgh joined the ACC.
College basketball odds have Duke installed as a 5.5-point road favorite for this ACC clash with the Over/Under at 146. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Duke vs. Pittsburgh on Tuesday, January 9.
Duke vs Pittsburgh best odds
Duke vs Pittsburgh picks and predictions
The Duke Blue Devils took care of the Pittsburgh Panthers last year, beating them 77-69 during the regular season before clobbering them 96-69 in the ACC Tournament.
Considering that Duke has almost an identical starting lineup from last season with the exception of freshman sharpshooter Jared McCain, it would be easy to see this going the same way. After all, last season was the Panthers' best year in the Jeff Capel era and they haven't been as impressive this season, going 6-5 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games.
That said, there is reason to fade Duke — especially it's offense — in this spot. The Blue Devils are fresh off a 67-59 win on the road against Notre Dame but didn't come close to covering the spread as 14.5-point faves. Although the Blue Devils have looked great at times this season they've struggled on the road, losing outright as favorites in their previous two contests in enemy territory.
While the Blue Devils have a sizzling 60% effective field goal percentage at home, that number has plunged to just 45.8% in their three road games. The Panthers have been solid defensively and rank 29th in the country in opponent eFG% (45.4%). They've been fantastic at defending on the perimeter, holding foes to 26.9% shooting from beyond the arc and they are ninth in the country in defensive rebounding rate (79.9%).
Pitt also sits 236th in the country in opponent's average length of possession, and both schools rarely turn the ball over which leads to fewer buckets in transition. Expect Duke to struggle with making outside shots tonight. That combined with lengthy half-court possessions should result in them going below their team total.
My best bet: Duke team total Under 75.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Duke vs Pittsburgh same-game parlay
Duke team total Under 75.5
Kyle Filipowski Over 15.5 points
Duke moneyline
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While I think Duke will struggle to knock down shots from the perimeter, I expect leading scorer Kyle Filipowski (16.8 ppg on 50.3 FG%) to have success inside. The big man went just 2-for-12 from the floor for seven points against Notre Dame but I expect him to bounce back.
Keep in mind that while Pittsburgh lost three starters and sixth-man Nick Sibande in the offseason, they returned power forward Blake Hinson and the center tandem of Guillermo Diaz Graham and Federiko Federiko. Filipowski had his way against those guys last season, dropping 28 points in the regular season and scoring 22 points in just 16 minutes in the blowout victory during the conference tourney.
Pitt is coming off a 83-70 victory against Louisville, but considering that the Cardinals have been one of the worst Power Six conference teams in the country, that doesn't impress me. The Panthers are just 3-5 SU and ATS against Power Six teams this year with the other wins coming against a mediocre Oregon State team and a West Virginia squad that was missing three starters.
I don't think the Blue Devils will fill up the hoop in this one so I'm reluctant to lay the points, but they are easily talented enough to win. Taking the Under on the Blue Devils team total while taking them on the moneyline and playing the Over on Filipowski's points creates a nice SGP multiplier.
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Duke vs Pittsburgh spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Blue Devils at -5 and ticked up ever-so-slightly to -5.5 before coming back down to -5. The O/U has stayed relatively steady at 146.5, although Duke's team total moved from 76.5 to 75.5.
Duke is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games but has gone 0-3 ATS on the road this season. That said, the Panthers haven't looked great at home and have already lost three games at home to North Carolina, Clemson, and Missouri.
While the Blue Devils have gone 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings between these conference foes, the Panthers are 6-4 ATS during that span.
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Duke vs Pittsburgh betting trend to know
The Blue Devils have only hit the Over on their Team Total in six of their last 15 away games (-4.35 Units / -25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Pittsburgh.
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Duke vs Pittsburgh game info
| Location: | Petersen Events Center, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 9, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Duke vs Pittsburgh key injuries
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