Houston vs BYU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Big 12 Newcomers Clash in Provo

If you like matchups between two quality college basketball teams, then you can’t miss Tuesday night’s ranked-on-ranked game in Provo between the No. 4 Houston Cougars and the No. 21 BYU Cougars. 

Looking at college basketball odds, Houston is a 2.5-point favorite in this Cougar fight while the total resides at 136.5. I’ve taken a particular interest in the total and will target it with my best bet.

Check out my college basketball picks and predictions for Houston vs. BYU on Tuesday, January 23. 

Houston vs BYU best odds

Houston vs BYU picks and predictions

Kelvin Sampson sure has built something special with the Houston Cougars. They’re a dominant force yet again this season and are an analytical darling, earning KenPom’s top overall ranking.

It should be no surprise that the calling card is a fierce defense. This year’s group is surrendering just 51 points per game while leading the nation in adjusted efficiency.

Good luck finding openings anywhere on the court — Houston holds the nation’s best field goal defense (34.3%) and 2-point defense (38.9%) while ranking 11th in 3-point defense (27.9%). It combines this stinginess with a propensity for forcing mistakes, averaging 16.8 turnovers forced per game (seventh nationally). 

Thanks to this suffocating defense, Houston has cashed 13 Unders in 18 games. That includes a 1-3 O/U run in its last four games and an 0-3 O/U record in true road games. 

Sampson’s squad faces off with a dangerous BYU Cougars team that also grades out as a Top-10 team on KenPom. By now, it’s no secret you need both an elite offense and an elite defense to be a National Championship contender come March. BYU fits that bill with Top-20 rankings on both ends of the court. 

BYU lives from behind the arc offensively as 51.3% of their field goal attempts come from 3-point range. It ranks second nationally in both 3-point attempts (33.8) and makes (12.4) per game while hitting at 36.8%. This is an interesting matchup in that Houston generally allows opponents to fly away from downtown (42% of opponent field goal attempts come from behind the arc) but has forced tough looks thus far. 

One reason Mark Pope’s squad has surpassed expectations in its first year in the Big 12 is it plays sound defense on a nightly basis. BYU surrenders just 64.8 ppg while holding opponents to 40.5% from the field and 28.5% from behind the arc. 

Pope’s squad has also played to the Under this year at 7-11 O/U. Typically a program known for its offensive prowess, this year’s group understands it must be rock solid defensively to compete in the gauntlet that is Big 12 play. This may be a surprising number to some considering BYU’s reputation as a program known more for its offense. 

Houston is a jump-shooting team that lives in the midrange — a whopping 37.9% of their shot attempts are 2-point jumpers (Hoop-Math). BYU’s defense may set up well here as it excels at forcing tough midrange looks, limiting opponents to 33.8% shooting on 2-point jumpers.

BYU plays with a decent pace, ranking 122nd in adjusted tempo. The thing is, Houston likes to slow games down to a halt (351st in adjusted tempo) and I expect that to be the gameplan on the road against a tough opponent. 

There are some injury concerns on the personnel side with BYU as double-digit scorers Trevin Knell and Noah Waterman are considered game-time decisions. Knell is BYU’s best shooter (50.7% from the floor, 47.1% from three) and he missed the Iowa State game and was hobbled most recently against Texas Tech, playing just 17 minutes.

Waterman suffered a concussion against the Cyclones and missed the matchup with the Red Raiders. Big man Fousseyni Traore is also battling through injury — he was absent against the Cyclones and played 12 minutes against the Red Raiders. 

I see two terrific defensive teams facing off in what will be a very tough game. Both teams have trended toward the Under this season and I’ll be on another one coming through on Tuesday night.

My best bet: Under 136.5 (-110 at bet365)

Houston vs BYU same-game parlay

Under 136

BYU moneyline

+320 at DraftKings

One thing to keep in mind for both of these teams is that this is their first season in the Big 12. This is the toughest conference in America and conference play is filled with landmines, so there will be some adjustments made on the fly in which both teams stumble at times as they deal with the harsh reality of their new world. 

I mention that because this is a difficult road game for Houston. We’re used to seeing Sampson’s squad fly through the regular season with a pristine record and bulletproof analytical profile. That’s seemingly what we have here, as Houston is 16-2 and the top-ranked team in the land, per KenPom. 

What’s different now is there will be more “stumbles” along the way. There weren’t any Top-10 teams awaiting in AAC in prior years, but here awaits a Top-10 BYU team at home in Provo where it is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS. 

BYU has the defense to keep this interesting and does best offensively what Houston tends to allow (3-point shooting). Hence the poke at BYU on the moneyline. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Houston vs BYU spread and Over/Under analysis

Be sure to track any fluctuations using our college basketball line movement tool before placing your wager. So far, there hasn’t been a ton of movement. Houston moved to -3 at some spots but has since moved back down to -2.5 at most of them, while the total has jumped a point from 135.5 to 136.5.

Houston is 9-8-1 ATS but has hit a rough stretch since conference play began, covering just once in its last four games. It hasn’t covered any of its three true road games. 

Sampson’s squad picked up a dominant 89-55 win over West Virginia to begin conference play before dropping back-to-back road games against Iowa State and TCU. They’ve rebounded with a 23-point win over Texas Tech and a 15-point win against UCF, both of which came at home.

BYU has been very profitable at 12-6 ATS but has also found Big 12 play rough going, covering just once in five games. Pope’s squad will be glad to be back at the Marriott Center where they are 9-2 ATS. 

It stumbled out of the gates with a 71-60 loss against Cincinnati to open conference play and followed that up with an 81-72 loss at Baylor. Two straight wins over UCF and Iowa State got things back on track but a 7-point loss at Texas Tech put them in an unenviable position of needing a few tough victories to stay in the conference title mix. 

These teams profile similarly to me from a general perspective. As far as stylistics, I like BYU considering it limits turnovers — which is crucial in this matchup — and is a better shooting team than Houston, which relies on a bevy of 2-point jumpers.

Houston vs BYU betting trend to know

These teams have combined to go 12-24 O/U this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Houston vs. BYU.

Houston vs BYU game info

Houston vs BYU key injuries

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