Kentucky vs Florida Odds, Picks and Predictions: High-Flying Offenses Duel in Gainesville

Florida kicks off its SEC schedule with a bang when the Gators host the No. 6-ranked Kentucky Wildcats in Gainesville on Saturday. Our college basketball odds have the Gators favored by 3.5 points.

The Wildcats have played just one true road game this season, but it felt like home at times as they traveled up the road to Louisville and trounced them in front of a very split crowd. John Calipari will hope his young players can handle the Rowdy Reptiles and continue to take care of the basketball.

The Gators come into the contest having played one more game than the Wildcats, and having one more defeat. They’ve picked up wins in their last six games, although only one came against a quality opponent as they took down Michigan in double OT. They’re a high-scoring team that will be happy to go up and down the court with the Wildcats. 

Our free college basketball picks for Kentucky vs. Florida are anticipating just that, and we’ll explain why the total might not be high enough for you to avoid betting on it. 

Kentucky vs Florida best odds

Kentucky vs Florida picks and predictions

Only 10 teams in college basketball are outscoring the Florida Gators this season, and only four teams are hauling in more rebounds per game at the offensive end. However, this Florida defense has also given up its fair share of points.

Michigan dropped 81 in regulation on a neutral floor. Richmond put up 76 on a neutral floor, as well. Florida gave up 82 to Wake Forest in an 11-point road defeat and allowed 95 to Baylor in their 4-point loss at the NIT Season Tip-Off. That was after giving up 71 to Pitt the game before.

Even at home, the pace of play has allowed lesser teams to post some high totals. Loyola Maryland came in for the season opener and scored 73 points. Last weekend, Quinnipiac scored 72 at Exactech Arena. 

Those two teams rank outside the Top 150 in adjusted offensive efficiency, but the teams that put up 80+, such as Wake, Baylor, and Michigan? Well, they all rank in the Top 25.

Baylor ranks third in AOE entering the weekend. You know who ranks ninth? The Kentucky Wildcats.

With 91.1 points per game, the Wildcats rank third in points per contest and their 19.4 assists are also in the Top 10. They’re doubling their assists compared to turnovers, with the fourth-lowest turnover rate in college basketball. 

The books keep raising the totals for Kentucky and the Wildcats keep blowing right past them. So after the line for this game opened at 169.5 and dropped a bit to 168, it was great news for us — because we’re taking the Over with our best bet. 

This Kentucky team can get production from every position. This is John Calipari’s best shooting team since he’s taken the job, with four different players who can consistently knock down outside shots. 

Florida ranks 216th in 3-point defense, having allowed five different teams already to make 9+ shots from beyond the arc. That includes a 14-for-25 day from Baylor and a 10-for-22 showing from Michigan.

On the other end, Kentucky’s been terrific defensively, but one area the Wildcats are struggling is keeping teams off the foul line. They rank 296th in free throw rate against this season. That will be a problem on Saturday. The Gators rank 40th in free throw rate and are taking the 12th-most attempts per game. 

The Wildcats are also going up against a team that can punish them on the glass. Florida’s pulling down offensive boards on more than two of every five missed shots, and it’s an area where Kentucky has struggled at times this season — even since Aaron Bradshaw joined the team after his preseason injury.

So, you’ve got a Kentucky team that can bomb away from downtown and doesn’t turn the ball over against a Florida defense that doesn’t force many turnovers and doesn’t defend the arc very well. 

And then you’ve got a Florida offense that racks up second chances and gets to the foul line frequently, matched up with a Kentucky defense that struggles with fouling and allows one of the highest numbers of 3-point shots in the country.

Sprinkle in the fact both teams rank in the Top 25 in offensive possessions per game, and you’d have to push the total north of 175 for me to not take the Over. So head to DraftKings — where you can avoid the hook at 168 — and settle in for one hell of an SEC showdown. 

My best bet: Over 168 (-110 at DraftKings)

Kentucky vs Florida same-game parlay

Over 168.5

Antonio Reeves Over 2.5 made threes

Tyrese Samuel Over 8.5 rebounds

+600 at bet365

bet365 has the best price for our same-game parlay, as we’re backing a pair of players to do what they do best on Saturday. 

When the Wolverines took on the Gators, they had three different players make 3+ threes. Those three players needed a combined 16 attempts to bury their nine treys. Antonio Reeves won’t need that many attempts, but he’s going to have a great chance to make a trio. 

Tyrese Samuel has hauled in double-digit rebounds in four of his last five games and at least nine boards in each of those contests. He’s grabbing 20% of potential defensive rebounds and one of every eight misses at the offensive end. Nine rebounds should be his floor tonight. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kentucky vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis

Florida is favored by 3.5 points at home and the public jumped on the Gators early. The line moved from -1.5 to -3.5 within a couple of hours, although you could still get -2.5 at Caesars as of Friday night. 

The Wildcats have only been underdogs twice this season, and they’ve covered on both occasions. That includes a 5-point loss to Kansas and an outright win over UNC, both on neutral courts. This will be their toughest test of the season, but I like them to cover. The Gators are 3-2 ATS this season when favored by single digits.  

The total for this game — as we mentioned earlier — dropped a bit but not before actually shooting up at one point to 170.5 at FanDuel. Everyone but DraftKings has it at 168.5 so if you want to take the Under just hunt for the best price.

The Over is 9-1 in Kentucky’s last 10 games and that includes the 164.5-point total in an 87-83 win over North Carolina a few weeks back. The Over hasn’t been as prolific with the Gators, but they blew past the 163-point total last time out against Quinnipiac.  

Kentucky vs Florida betting trend to know

The Over is 15-5 in Florida’s last 20 games (+9.50 units / 43% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. Florida.

Kentucky vs Florida game info

Kentucky vs Florida key injuries

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