The Long Beach State Beach faces the in-state rival USC Trojans on Sunday afternoon in a non-conference matchup that could be the NCAA debut of highly-touted freshman Bronny James.
Bronny James has been cleared and is expected to come off the bench and USC's game against Long Beach State at 1 p.m. on Sunday is now sold out. Incredible. https://t.co/KGRA1e4aoG
— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi) December 9, 2023
The Beach is off to a 6-4 start to their season and enters this matchup riding a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, USC is 5-3 on the season and coming off a 13-point home loss to Gonzaga.
Please join me as I take a closer look at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks as I preview Long Beach State vs. USC on Sunday, December 10.
Long Beach State vs USC best odds
Long Beach State vs USC picks and predictions
The game between Long Beach State and USC will likely take a back seat to the possible debut of USC freshman Bronny James.
James is one of the Trojans' prized recruits but suffered a cardiac arrest on August 25, 2023, and has been on the sidelines ever since. He returned to full-contact practice with USC this past week, and his highly-anticipated debut could happen as soon as Sunday when the Trojans face the Beach.
The Trojans will be very careful with James, and if he does take the floor, he will be on a minute's restriction and coming off the bench. Even if he plays, I'm not sure how much of an impact he’ll have. But at some point, he will help USC on both ends of the floor.
USC won’t need to rely on James to win this game, and they’ll likely win this matchup whether he dresses or not. The Trojans have won six of their last seven meetings with Long Beach State but have failed to cover the spread during their last four tilts.
The young Trojans have lost some games, but three of those losses were to Top-100 KenPom teams. Gonzaga beat USC up a bit, but the Trojans fell at home to UC Irvine by 10 points, and only lost by two points to Oklahoma on a neutral court. They are still 3-1 ATS as the home side.
Long Beach State is 6-4, and they have a huge upset victory over Michigan in Ann Arbor. They play a lightning-fast tempo and are decent shooters from inside the arc, but are shaky from downtown and one of the worst free-throw shooting teams nationally.
I don’t usually like to lay this many points in a non-conference matchup, but I like USC to cover the spread.
According to ShotQuality, USC is 37th nationally in defending shots at the rim. The Beach are 44th in post-ups, where Long Beach State scores most of their points. They’ll run into trouble against the taller Trojans, and the Beach are below-average shooters from downtown.
The Trojans have been exceptional in shooting the triple, draining 37% of their tries, and face a Long Beach State group that allows an above-average amount of 3-point attempts and, according to ShotQuality, are 317th in the country in defending quality 3-point attempts.
Finally, if he dresses, Bronny James' possible return would boost the Trojans, but USC won’t need James to win or cover the spread. The Trojans are 3-1 ATS at home, have a tremendous size advantage, and should dominate the glass and keep a Beach group that loves to attack the cup from enjoying any real success at the rim.
Look for USC guards Boogie Ellis and frosh Isaiah Collier to have big shooting nights from downtown and help cover the spread.
My best bet: USC -13.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Long Beach State vs USC same-game parlay
USC -13.5
Over 156.5
USC covering the spread could be tight, but they are the better team playing at home, and James could give them a lift. Long Beach State is 4-1-0 ATS as the away team, but they haven’t faced a team half as good as the Trojans on the road.
I believe 156.5 is a good number to go Over on. USC is a solid shooting team from everywhere on the court. Both teams play at a high tempo, and USC could score 100 against the Beach. If the Trojans get to 80 points, which is very possible, this game easily exceeds the number.
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Long Beach State vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis
FanDuel is the only major sportsbook to open USC -13.5 (-110), and that number hasn’t moved there yet, but there is -14 (-110) nearly everywhere else. BetMGM has -14.5 (-105). I don’t believe Long Beach will cover +14.5 because USC is vastly superior.
DraftKings opened the total at 160 (-110), before dipping to 158.5. FanDuel has 156.5, and that’s the best number available at the present time for Over bettors. I like the number FanDuel offered, so I chose the Over there for the same-game parlay.
Normally I would lean toward the underdog, but not Long Beach State. USC is a horrible matchup for them, and I don’t believe they can win.
Long Beach State vs USC betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Trojans' last four games as a favorite of 13 or more points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Long Beach State vs. USC.
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Long Beach State vs USC game info
| Location: | Galen Center, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 10, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | PAC12 |
Long Beach State vs USC key injuries
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