A spot in the March Madness bracket's Sweet 16 is on the line when the No. 6 Clemson Tigers take on the No. 3 Baylor Bears in Memphis on Sunday.
Baylor is a 4.5-point favorite for this Round of 32 matchup after blasting past No. 14 Colgate on Friday. The Bears covered easily as 14.5-point chalk, one of the best March Madness picks in the Round of 64.
Clemson wasn’t too shabby either, handling New Mexico in a 77-56 victory that saw the Tigers getting two points as underdogs. They locked down the Lobos to just 31% shooting, which will be a tougher task against high-powered BU.
I measure the March Madness odds for this No. 3 vs. No. 6 clash and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Baylor on March 23.
Clemson vs Baylor best odds
Clemson vs Baylor picks and predictions
Books opened this total at 144.5 points, which is a stark contrast to the closing 153-point total Clemson drew against New Mexico.
The Tigers faced a fast-place opponent in the Lobos, which steamed that Over/Under from an opener of 147.5 up 5.5 points over the course of the week. What promised to be a high-scoring game quickly fell flat, with New Mexico letting Big Dance jitters get the best of it.
A quick glance at the box score may indicate a stellar defensive effort from the Tigers, who gave up just 56 total points to a team that averages 81.6. But the Lobos were tight and missed plenty of shots at the rim, leading to their worst shooting performance of the season (just 29.7% from the floor and 3-for-23 from beyond the arc).
Not to take everything away from the Tigers, but their defense wasn’t “that good”. However, that result is anchoring this Round of 32 O/U at 144.5 points.
Clemson held up its end of the bargain on offense, scoring 77 points versus New Mexico despite a down night from beyond the arc. The team fired at just 33% from distance with sharp-shooter Joe Girard finishing an icy 2-for-8 from 3-point range.
Sunday’s showdown with Baylor has the potential for plenty of 3-point buckets, given the Bears buried poor Colgate under 13 makes from downtown and are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation. And with the way BU defends, Clemson could easily find its stroke from beyond the arc.
The Tigers ranks 15th and 23rd in points per play from “off-the-dribble” and “catch-and-shoot” 3-point sets, according to ShotQualityBets, while Baylor sits 336th and 288th in points allowed per play to those perimeter schemes.
The Bears are also a little soft in the paint and only have one proven interior defender in freshman center Yves Missi, who will match up with one of the best big men in college hoops: P.J. Hall. He scored only 14 points versus the Lobos but did so in 19 minutes due to foul trouble. Hall is the big reason why the Tigers also rank 39th and 75th in points finishing at the rim and out of the post-up.
Game models call for between 144 and 148 collective points between these teams on Sunday. The bulk of the forecast is 146 or higher. Some books have already adjusted the total upwards to 145, as of Friday night.
My best bet: Over 144.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Clemson vs Baylor same-game parlay
Over 144.5
Baylor moneyline
Chase Hunter Over 1.5 made threes
Game models call for as many as 148 points with two offenses that can fill it up.
The Bears could find themselves in a close contest, but projections all give Baylor the nod to advance to the Sweet 16.
Hunter will be called upon to hit some triples. He’ll get more than his average in attempts against BU, offering value on the Over 1.5 three-pointers.
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Clemson vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis
Following Clemson closing out New Mexico on Friday, oddsmakers opened Baylor as 4.5-point favorite for Sunday’s Round of 32 meeting in Memphis.
The Bears lived up to their lofty spread versus Colgate, jumping out to a 20-point lead at half and cruising in the final 20 minutes. Baylor buried 16 3-pointers and grabbed 11 offensive rebounds, which is exactly what their game plan dictates.
Clemson also broke away early, holding a 42-28 lead over New Mexico at halftime. That allowed the Tigers to rest some starters ahead of this quick turnaround. Clemson picked up 38 of their 77 total points in the paint which offset a poor shooting night from beyond the arc (7 of 21).
Sunday’s Over/Under opened at 144.5 points, which is a much shorter total than Clemson’s closing number of 153 O/U versus New Mexico. While Baylor doesn’t play at a frantic pace like the Lobos, it is a much better offense in terms of efficiency (ranked No. 5 in the country).
Clemson boasts an Over/Under record of 17-16 O/U on the season, and has played Under in six of its last eight games overall.
Baylor enters the Round of 32 with a 18-15 O/U mark, and has gone Over the closing number in four of its previous six games heading into Sunday.
Clemson vs Baylor betting trend to know
Baylor is 6-2 Over/Under in non-conference games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Clemson vs. Baylor.
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Clemson vs Baylor game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, March 24, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Clemson vs Baylor key injuries
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