The world will be watching as Duke Blue Devils forward and freshman sensation Cooper Flagg makes his March Madness debut on Friday night, as Duke looks to deliver as a promising No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
Here are my top March Madness picks for Cooper Flagg with Duke taking on the No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers in Raleigh, North Carolina, at the Lenovo Center on Friday, March 21.
Cooper Flagg player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 18.5
(-114 at FanDuel) - SGP pick
Under 18.5 points
Under 7.5 rebounds
Over 4.5 assists
(+586 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Cooper Flagg best bet
Under 18.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
The Duke Blue Devils are poised to do some serious damage in the NCAA Tournament. The biggest question mark surrounding this juggernaut? The health of their star player, the precocious freshman Cooper Flagg.
Perhaps you’ve heard of him?
It’s no secret Flagg has been dealing with a sprained left ankle. The likely top selection in the 2025 NBA Draft collapsed in Duke’s opening-round game against Georgia Tech in the ACC Tournament and missed the next two games, one of which was a too-close-for-comfort nail-biter over rival North Carolina in the semifinals thanks in part to a fortunate lane violation in crunch time.
Duke seemingly has all the pieces required to make a prolonged run this March. Will Scheyer and company jeopardize that promising future by rushing the sport’s best player back to full-go before he’s ready? I’m betting not.
It’s an encouraging sign for Duke backers that Scheyer described him as “full steam ahead”. Still, he was being ramped up throughout the week and didn’t have a full week of normal preparation.
Reading the tea leaves, he’s been slowly progressing to be able to practice later in the week, so this “tune-up” game against the No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers is all about getting him back in game shape before the Round of 32.
It’s not expected the Blue Devils will need Flagg’s scoring output to walk over a No. 16 seed. Duke is a massive 32-point favorite, marking the second-largest spread of any Round of 64 matchup (Auburn is a half-point higher at -32.5).
Could Flagg still score at will? Of course, he’s a star for a reason — but there’s no reason Duke should ask or need him to get a plentitude of buckets.
Whenever Duke has faced an overmatched mid-major opponent, Flagg has gone for fewer than 18.5 points. Here’s a list:
- 18 points vs. Maine (34-point Duke win)
- 13 vs. Army (42-point win)
- 8 vs. Wofford (51-point win)
- 9 vs. Seattle (22-point win)
- 6 vs. Incarnate Word (26-point win)
The only time Flagg went Over 18.5 points against a mid-major team was when he put up 24 points against George Mason. However, the Patriots are a tough team with a 26-8 record.
They went 15-3 in the Atlantic 10 and came up just short in the conference tournament to a good VCU squad. The A-10 is a mid-major in name, but that’s a much different level than the MAAC, where Mount St. Mary’s hails from (20th out of 32 conference in RPI compared to sixth for the A-10).
However, it’s not limited to mid-majors, as Flagg has gone Under this point total in blowout wins over Florida State, Miami (twice), Illinois, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. This would be a bet even without the ankle injury, but the combination of the two factors is music to my ears.
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Cooper Flagg same-game parlay
Under 18.5 points
Under 7.5 rebounds
Over 4.5 assists
Flagg’s rebound prop is set at 7.5. He’s gone Under that number in seven of the 11 blowouts mentioned above which correlates with the Under bet on his points prop and jives with the narrative of him being held back in his Big Dance debut.
Flagg has tended to be more of a facilitator than a scorer in these blowouts, notching at least five assists in six of the 11 aforementioned blowout victories.
He affects the game in many ways, and it’d make sense for him to dish out some dimes while helping his team cruise to a relatively easy victory.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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