Perhaps few people believe in the Houston Cougars this week. Sportsbooks favoring the Duke Blue Devils by five points may not seem like much, but the underdog moneyline has steadily climbed. It opened at +175 and has now reached +220.
But some Houston vs. Duke predictions need to trust certain parts of the Cougars. My March Madness picks trust their defense, their shot choices, and their insistence on crashing the glass before tip from the Alamodome at 8:49 ET this Saturday, April 5 on CBS.
Houston vs Duke props
- Cooper Flagg Under 18.5 points (-110 at bet365)
- LJ Cryer Over 2.5 made 3s (-105 at bet365)
- J’Wan Roberts Over 6.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Houston vs Duke Final Four props
Cooper Flagg Under 18.5 points (-110 at bet365)
There are a handful of reasons to attack the Under on the points prop for the best player in college basketball, most of which were laid out in the Covers Bracket Breakdown.
This points prop is a bit loftier than it should be compared to Duke’s team total of 70.5. And even against lesser defenses in games with greater totals, Cooper Flagg has cleared this prop in just two of his last 11 games. A points prop this high overlooks Flagg’s tendency to draw attention and then disperse the ball, averaging 4.5 assists in this stretch. His assists prop is indeed set at 4.5, and he has cleared it six times in the last 11 games.
Those trends alone argue Flagg’s points prop is inflated to price against the public’s faith in the presumptive No. 1 NBA draft pick.
But there is further reason to doubt Flagg to pour in the points, and that's the Houston Cougars defense.
First of all, Cougars’ forward Joseph Tugler may be the best defender in the country. At 6-foot-8, he will not give Flagg space to breathe, and Tugler is capable of removing any player from the game plan.
Houston's Joseph Tugler is the most impactful defender in the entire country at https://t.co/cegyfz96ax.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 31, 2025
Other in this Final Four will get more attention, but Tugler is the player for Houston who is most capable of disrupting an opponent's gameplan. His impact is insane. pic.twitter.com/0MjfEDk8m9
With Terrance Arceneaux complimenting Tugler, Flagg will not see much daylight. This is how Houston has ranked No. 5 in the country this season in opposing field-goal percentage inside the arc. Foes make just 44.5% of their 2-point attempts as the Cougars limit both penetration and entry passes.
The Duke Blue Devils' last loss came to Clemson, when Flagg went 3 of 11 from inside and scored 18 points. The Tigers held the Devils to 38.7% inside the arc, the exact template to expect from Houston.
LJ Cryer Over 2.5 made 3s (-105 at bet365)
Duke’s defensive M.O. is to slow opponents to a crawl. Tempo is discussed broadly too often, including by yours truly. Some focus should be given to offensive tempo and defensive tempo separately.
The Blue Devils force opponents to take the fifth-longest possessions in the country, the key to Duke ranking as nearly the 100th-slowest team overall this season. The Devils force opponents to prod and stall, desperate for an opening.
That points to more usage from LJ Cryer for two reasons.
First of all, he will not flinch at the pressure. Cryer was a freshman on the bench as Baylor won a national championship in 2021. In the past four seasons, he has played 125 games, and in each one of those, he dictated his team’s offense.
The fifth-year veteran has been in bigger moments than anyone on Duke’s roster has. He is used to this, and he will not hesitate to shoot. He averaged three made 3-pointers per Big 12 game this season, shooting 42.6% from deep on seven attempts per game.
And he may take more than that because of Duke’s defense. If Houston finds itself up against the shot clock, the ball is most likely going to be in Cryer’s hands, and that may lead to a few extra chucks from deep. Those will not be excellent looks, but if he makes just one, then this prop is all that much more likely to cash.
J’Wan Roberts Over 6.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)
Houston’s offense depends on made 3s and rebounding misses. The Cougars do not attempt many free throws, ranking No. 327 in that rate this season. They do not shoot well inside, No. 282 in 2-point percentage. They need offensive rebounds.
And they get them. Houston corralled 36.8% of its own misses this season and 35.9% of them in Big 12 play.
J’Wan Roberts leads that attack on the glass, hounding it at a 9.7% rate on the season and 8.4% in Big 12 play. Add in finding about 15.5% of available defensive boards, and you get an idea of how often Roberts finds a wayward shot.
In the Cougars’ most important games, he tends to crash the glass all that much harder. In the last five games he played in with spreads within three buckets, Roberts has cleared this prop in four of them, averaging 7.8 boards in those five games.
He snagged only two against Tennessee in the Elite Eight, the sole exception, because foul trouble cost him most of the first half. Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson is one of the most conservative coaches in the country about using players with two fouls in the first half.
The Volunteers are much more aggressive about drawing fouls — showing up both in rate of attempts and in the fouls drawn rates of Zakai Zeigler and Jordan Gainey — than the Blue Devils are. So, in theory, that should be less of a worry for Roberts in San Antonio.
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