Caitlin Clark and Iowa are one victory away from winning the National Championship that escaped them in last season’s Women’s March Madness final loss to LSU.
The Lady Hawkeyes are in for a tough matchup this afternoon against the Women’s March Madness odds favorite — the undefeated (and No. 1-overall seed) South Carolina Gamecocks.
All the hype (and attention) will be on the Caitlin Clark odds... but my March Madness picks expect defense to prevail — see exactly what I'm betting in my Iowa vs. South Carolina predictions below.
Iowa vs South Carolina odds
Iowa
South CarolinaPinnacle odds only available in Canada.
Iowa vs South Carolina picks and predictions
This afternoon features two programs that preseason pundits doubted, as the South Carolina Gamecocks and Iowa Hawkeyes proved them all wrong.
These programs met in last year's Final Four: While the rest of the world watched LSU beat Iowa in the final, Gamecocks head coach Dawn Staley watched her starting five depart for the professional ranks.
Over the past four years, Iowa head coach Lisa Bluder enjoyed watching Caitlin Clark shatter every significant scoring record in the college game. However, she also lost a couple of standouts from last year’s team yet they won the Big Ten tourney and 40 minutes away from a national championship.
The faces on the floor may differ from their 2023 clash, but one thing hasn’t changed: stopping Caitlin Clark.
South Carolina didn’t stop Clark from going off last year; she lit the Gamecocks up for 41 points, and they did everything they could to stop her but couldn’t.
They’ll go after Clark the same way again this time, and they might catch a break; the all-time leading scorer has shot miserably from downtown during this tourney and has failed to clear her 31.7 scoring mark in three of her last five.
Iowa deployed a zone defense in the 2023 meeting and it worked like a charm as South Carolina shot a miserable 4-for-20 from beyond the arc. While the Gamecocks improved dramatically this season from downtown, they don’t attempt many (16.7). Iowa will kick it down on the block to center Kamilla Cardoso and let the All-American work on the younger Hawkeyes frontcourt.
Iowa plays a fast-paced brand of basketball, and Staley will slow this game down to a crawl, forcing the Hawkeyes into a half-court game and force Iowa to deal with Cardoso in the painted area.
Cardoso will get hers, but the Gamecocks also succeed when she kicks the ball outside off the double team. Iowa is too experienced to allow much of that, and the Lady Hawkeyes are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, which should limit the second-chance point opportunities Cardoso usually enjoys.
Finally, Clark has struggled with her shot during this tourney, and that is partially to blame for the Hawkeyes' failure to score 92 points only once in their last five. They’ve turned to their defense and have held opponents under 72 points in each of their past five, and they will need that same defensive effort again on Sunday.
I expect all those things previously mentioned to happen and for this game to end Under the DraftKings number.
My best bet: Under 161 (-110 at bet365)
Iowa vs South Carolina same-game parlay
Under 161
Iowa +6.5
South Carolina moneyline
Iowa may not win this game, but it won’t lose by more than seven points. The Lady Hawkeyes' on-court chemistry and experience can’t be denied, and they match up well with South Carolina.
SC is a deep team on a fantastic run. The Gamecocks have rolled through this event and will likely come out on top behind WNBA-bound Cardoso. Clark and the Lady Hawkeyes will push the Gamecocks, but it won’t be enough to defeat a deeper South Carolina rotation.
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Iowa vs South Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
• South Carolina bettors can find -6 (-110) as the best number, while the rest of the markets have -6.5 (-110) across the U.S. betting shops. Iowa bettors have +6.5 (-110) across the U.S. markets.
• The totals markets are all over the place. Over bettors can find Over 160.5 (-110) as the best number, while Under bettors can find Under 161 (-110) as the best number.
Iowa vs South Carolina betting trend to know
South Carolina is 37-0 on the moneyline this season.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Iowa vs South Carolina game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, April 5, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Iowa vs South Carolina key injuries
Iowa: Molly Davis (Questionable).
South Carolina: No injuries to report.
