The hype train is pulling out of the Big Apple and heading full steam to Providence where the No. 2 St. John’s Red Storm face the No. 15 Omaha Mavericks tonight.
The Johnnies’ red-hot run to the Big East title and a No. 2 spot in the West Region has earned a lot of attention, including its own theme song on “The Tonight Show”.
Oddsmakers are buying into Rick Pitino's defense in this Round of 64 matchup, and my Omaha vs. St. John's predictions and March Madness picks are eyeing forward Zuby Ejiofor to anchor that D and put in work on the boards.
Who will win Omaha vs St. John's?
The Red Storm are sizable favorites, with the outright odds giving St. John’s a 97% implied win probability in the Round of 64. Only 11 No. 2 seeds have been knocked off in the first round, so it’s safe to advance the Johnnies in your bracket.
Omaha vs St. John's prediction
My best bet: Zuby Ejiofor Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
The St. John's Red Storm have a smothering defense that ranks near the top of all the defensive metrics you can find. They’ve checked opponents to a mere 46.6% effective field goal rate and the 34th-fewest field goals against in the country.
That defensive intensity will be a slap in the mouth for the Omaha Mavericks, who punched its tournament ticket on offense, scoring almost 78 points per contest and owning the 63rd-best EFG in the land (53.5%).
That said, most of those offensive stats were built against soft Summit League defenses, which topped out at 163rd in defensive efficiency at KenPom (Kansas City). The last time the Mavericks faced a defense on St. John’s level, it was stymied for 51 points on 42% shooting against Iowa State back in December.
The Mavericks have a big team — for the Summit League — and have done well on the glass, but if we look at the matchup with Iowa State, they were absolutely bullied on the boards 36-22, including 10 offensive rebounds from the Cyclones.
I see a similar result in this Round of 64 pairing, which means ample rebounding opportunities for the Johnnies. Ejiofor has been a force on the glass all season, hauling in eight rebounds per game, with half of those coming on the offensive glass.
His rebounding prop for Thursday sits at 7.5 O/U, trimmed a bit from his recent totals after getting on the window for just three rebounds in the Big East tournament final. That dip in boards had more to do with Ejiofor’s uptick in field goal attempts, shooting 15 times against Creighton, which doesn’t put him in position for those offensive rebounds.
Overall, he’s surpassed 7.5 rebounds in 23 of his last 31 games (74% hit rate), and Ejiofor’s rebounding totals have bounced between 7.5 (with the Over juiced to -150) to 8.5 boards over the last six contests.
Player projections for Ejiofor range between 8.4 rebounds to 9.7, with my number coming out just north of nine boards from the junior forward. That’s more than enough to top his rebounding expectations on Thursday.
Omaha vs St. John's same-game parlay (SGP)
Zuby Ejiofor Over 7.5 rebounds
Kadary Richmond 5+ assists
Omaha team total Over 64.5
Ejofor has some forecasts flirting with 10 rebounds. Given this Johnnies defense, there will be plenty of misses to wrangle.
Richmond is projected for five or more dimes and has dished out 5+ assists in 10 of his last 12 games.
The Mavericks can score, and while I don’t see them lighting it up, most game models call for 65+ points.
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Omaha vs St. John's odds
Omaha vs St. John's live odds
Omaha vs St. John's opening odds
- Spread: Omaha +18.5 | St. John's -18.5
- Moneyline: Omaha +1550 | St. John's -4000
- Over/Under: Over 148 | Under 148
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Omaha vs St. John's betting trend to know
St. John's has covered the spread in 13 of its last 19 games for +7.50 units and a 36% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for Omaha vs. St. John's.
How to watch Omaha vs St. John's
| Region | West |
| Location | Amica Mutual Pavilion, Providence, RI |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Omaha vs St. John's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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