Arizona State vs TCU Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Offenses Have it Tough in Round 1

No. 11 seed Arizona State (23-12) advanced in the bracket with a dominant 98-73 victory over Nevada in the First Four. Is this the start of a run in our March Madness picks?

It wouldn’t be the first time March Madness odds have seen a Pac-12 team make a tournament run as a play-in team, although Bobby Hurley’s squad has a difficult test waiting for them in the West Region.

The Sun Devils look to keep that momentum building in a matchup with the No. 6 seed TCU Horned Frogs (21-12), a representative of the gauntlet that's been the Big 12 this season.

These two teams will meet late Friday night at 10:05 pm ET at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, in what will be the last game of the day. Read more in our college basketball picks for Arizona State vs. TCU below. 

Arizona State vs TCU best odds

Arizona State vs TCU picks and predictions

The TCU Horned Frogs had an up-and-down season but at times they looked like a Top-15 team in the nation. One could make the case that they're underseeded as a No. 6 seed. That’s the theme with the West Region, a loaded section of the bracket that features five teams ranked within KenPom's Top 12.  

Coached by Jaimie Dixon, the Horned Frogs dealt with the absence of key players like Mike Miles, Damion Baugh, and Eddie Lampkin at points this season. This makes their resume difficult to accurately assess, as Miles is one of the best scoring guards in the Big 12 yet missed nine games and was less than 100% at points when he was on the court. 

Baugh missed six games and Lampkin, a starter, is out for the NCAA Tournament and has entered the transfer portal, a significant absence considering he’s second on the team at 5.9 rebounds per game and was the only rotational player who stood above 6-foot-7. Miles and Baugh are full-go for the big dance. 

The Arizona State Sun Devils soundly defeated Nevada 98-73 in the First Four on Wednesday night. The Sun Devils were red hot from distance, converting 11 of 21 shots from 3-point range, and were led by guard DJ Horne’s 20 points. 

The Sun Devils are a difficult team to predict on a game-to-game basis because they don’t exactly have a cohesive offensive system. The guards play a style that resembles an AAU game, which leads to a lot of contested, ill-advised looks outside of the flow of any semblance of offensive structure. Sometimes these shots go in, but oftentimes they don't. 

Just when you think the Sun Devils are hot, they tend to go ice cold again. This is supported by the trends as Hurley’s side is 13-3 to the Under in its last 16 games following a win of more than 20 points. 

Arizona State ranks just 283rd in 2-point field goal shooting (48.5%), 304th in 3-point shooting (31.9%), and 285th in free-throw shooting (68.9%). The Sun Devils got hot in a 77-72 victory over USC in the Pac-12 tourney, canning 43.8% of their looks from downtown, and again in the play-in game by shooting 52.4% from behind the arc against Nevada. They take a ton of difficult shots, but when they’re falling, it’s hard to defend. 

I’m going to bank on those shots not falling against a tough TCU defense. The Horned Frogs rank 21st in defensive efficiency while holding teams to just 30.4% from downtown — the 22nd-best mark nationally. ASU should be forced into difficult looks, which is hardly a trusted offensive approach against a stout defense. 

When TCU has the ball, it looks to get to the paint and attack, ranking fifth in the percentage of shots taken at the rim (47.1%). The Horned Frogs will find resistance in the paint against an ASU team checking in at third nationally in FG% allowed at the rim (48.8%). Warren Washington averages 1.7 blocks per game and will be by far the tallest player on the court at 7-feet.

TCU will look to get out and run, attacking fast so that Arizona State’s rim protectors aren’t back yet to wall off the run. The Sun Devils are typically adept at slowing down opposing offenses, ranking just 286th in percentage of shots allowed in transition.

TCU is 4-0 to the Under in its last four games 4-1 to the Under in its last five neutral-site games. Although the pace could be high in this one, I think it'll be a struggle to find easy buckets. I could see this total ticking up a few points but I'm perfectly fine grabbing this number as well. 

My best bet: Under 141.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Arizona State vs TCU spread analysis

TCU opened at -4.5 but quickly moved to -5.5 at most spots. At the time of this writing, -4.5 is still available, but it likely won’t be for long. 

The Horned Frogs have finished the season letting out a lot of blood, losing eight of their last 13 games. Injuries are partly to blame, of course, but their current form is not tremendous heading into the big dance. They check in at 27th overall in KenPom, 25 spots ahead of Arizona State (52nd). 

I’m of the belief that TCU could be undervalued heading into the NCAA Tournament after battling through injuries and a very difficult schedule.

Did the Frogs drop some games they shouldn’t have? Yes. Did they look great over the last month? No. Still, I’m willing to cut them some slack considering they faced the 11th-most difficult strength of schedule in the country per KenPom. 

The Horned Frogs have the better offense and the better defense. Arizona State started the season hot and was 6-1 to start Pac-12 play before collapsing and going 5-8 to end the regular season.

Nothing about the Sun Devils’ style of play is particularly repeatedable on a game-to-game basis other than protecting the rim and sometimes crashing the offensive glass. While they look to be in good form, I can’t trust them given how I saw them play over the majority of the Pac-12 schedule. 

Arizona State vs TCU Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 140.5 and has moved to 141 or 141.5 at current, depending on the book. 

The pace in this matchup could be pretty high as TCU likes to get out and run, ranking 49th in adjusted tempo. Why I’m still playing the Under despite the projected pace is that the efficiency projects to be very low. 

Although TCU likes to play fast, it isn’t particularly good at doing so, ranking 170th in effective field goal percentage in transition. If Arizona State tries to match its tempo offensively, things likely won’t go great considering it ranks just 347th in effective field goal percentage in transition. 

This game could get pretty ugly when it’s played in the half-court. TCU struggled to generate offense, ranking 257th in non-transition effective field goal percentage. Arizona State is even worse at 294th.

I’ve already touched on ASU being a poor shooting team overall, but TCU is as well. The Horned Frogs aren’t proficient in any way from behind the arc, ranking 341st in made 3-pointers per game (5.5) and 342nd in 3-point shooting (30.6%). They also struggle from the charity stripe, ranking 245th in free throw percentage (70.1%).

This team wants to get downhill and get easy layups, but they’re at a height disadvantage in this spot and are facing an Arizona State defense that ranks second in near-proximity defense, per Haslametrics. 

Arizona State vs TCU betting trend to know

Arizona State is 13-3 to the Under in its last 16 games following a win of more than 20 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona State vs. TCU.

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