The Texas Tech Red Raiders lock horns with the Florida Gators on Saturday with the winner moving on to the Final Four.
The Gators are led by All-American guard Walter Clayton Jr. and my March Madness picks are betting on him to have a big game. I'm also backing Red Raiders freshman Christian Anderson and fading point guard Elijah Hawkins.
Here are my best free player props for Texas Tech vs. Florida in the Elite Eight on Saturday.
Texas Tech vs Florida March Madness props
- Clayton Jr. 20+ points (+110 at bet365)
- Anderson Over 1.5 threes (-125 at bet365)
- Hawkins Under 4.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Texas Tech vs Florida March Madness props
Walter Clayton Jr. 20+ points (+110 at bet365)
Walter Clayton Jr. is coming off a quiet performance against Maryland where he scored 13 points on just nine field goal attempts. However, the All-American guard had dropped at least 22 points in six of his previous seven games.
Clayton is in the top 10th percentile in midrange efficiency and shoots a sizzling 38.6% from deep. He'll be able to find his spots against a Texas Tech squad that sits outside the Top 200 at defending isolation plays and off-the-dribble threes.
Clayton is a high-volume scorer that averages 13.4 field goal attempts per game with that number increasing to 15.3 FGA in games decided by fewer than 20 points. In what should be a competitive game, expect Florida to put the ball into the hands of its best scorer and let him do his thing.
Christian Anderson Over 1.5 threes (-125 at bet365)
Christian Anderson is Texas Tech's fourth-leading scorer and after the injury to Chance McMillian he moved up the pecking order. He scored 19 points in the Big 12 semifinals and led the Raiders with 22 points in 44 minutes in the Sweet 16.
Anderson has knocked down at least a pair of threes in 10 of his last 14 games. He's averaging 2.6 threes per game during that span while converting at 37.5% clip.
The freshman struggled with his shot in the first two rounds of the tourney, going a combined 2-14 from deep, but the volume was still there. He started to get into a groove in the last round going 3-9 from long distance versus Arkansas.
He should get good looks from the arc against a Florida defense that ranks 290th in Open 3 rate per ShotQualityBets. In addition, the Gators have been getting off to fast starts and if the Raiders fall behind early, game script will dictate an increase in 3-point attempts.
Elijah Hawkins Under 4.5 rebounds (-110 at bet365)
This number seems a bit inflated based on recent play. Hawkins has grabbed more than 4.5 boards in four of his last five games, including a season-high nine boards against UNC Wilmington in the first round.
However, before that five-game stretch, Hawkins had below this number in 24 of his first 29 contests. The 5-foot-11, 160-pound guard doesn't have the size to consistently excel on the glass and is averaging 3.5 rebounds per game this season.
He'll have a tough time fighting for loose balls against a physical Gators squad that ranks seventh in the country in rebounding rate (55.7%).
Not intended for use in MA.
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