The South Region had its fair share of Cinderella stories, notably No. 15 Oral Roberts reaching the Sweet 16, but it's a somewhat-expected regional final as No. 1 Baylor takes on No. 3 Arkansas.
The Bears have been tested, but ultimately have had stress-free finishes en route to the Elite Eight, while the Razorbacks have survived back-to-back buzzer-beaters to reach this point. Oddsmakers are liking what they've seen from Baylor more, as it has opened as a 6.5-point college basketball betting favorite.
Can Baylor continue its march to the Final Four? See what we think in our March Madness picks and predictions for Arkansas vs. Baylor on Monday, March 29.
Arkansas vs Baylor odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBetMGM Nevada pegged Baylor as 7-point chalk late Saturday night and late Sunday afternoon moved to -7.5, where the line remains at 7:30 p.m. Monday night for a 9:57 p.m. ET tipoff. "Right now, we need Arkansas, not a big decision, but that could change by game time," BetMGM Nevada's Jeff Stoneback said, noting tonight's Elite Eight opener between Oregon State and Houston saw much more action. The total is down to 147.5 from 149.5. "Tickets are almost dead even, and money is also dead even. Incredible two-way," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameArkansas Razorbacks vs Baylor Bears betting preview
Injuries
Arkansas: Khalen Robinson G (Out).
Baylor: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Razorbacks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Arkansas vs. Baylor.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Baylor entered the Sweet 16 as the top 3-point shooting team in the nation, but you never would have been able to tell based on how it shot against No. 5 Villanova. The team with the second-best March Madness odds was absolutely frigid from beyond the arc, shooting 3 of 19 on Saturday—including just 2 for 12 in the first half as it went into halftime trailing 30-23.
So how did the Bears turn it around in the second half? The same way that all championship-caliber teams do: make adjustments and lean on your defense.
Baylor shifted its focus on attacking the rim, as it scored 28 of its 39 second-half points in the paint, while the Bears held the Wildcats to just 21 second-half points in a 62-51 victory. Facing one of the country's best teams at protecting the ball, Baylor forced Villanova into 16 turnovers, which led to 22 points for the Bears.
While we don't expect them to shoot 15.8 percent from behind the arc again, they will need to continue applying that smothering defensive pressure against No. 3 Arkansas, which survived against No. 15 Oral Roberts 72-70 to reach its first Elite Eight since 1995.
The Hogs trailed by as many as 12 points in the second half – the third straight game they overcame a double-digit deficit to win – and this was the second straight buzzer-beater in their favor, as Max Abmas' 3-point shot at the end of the game bounced off the front rim and avoided further March Madness ensuing.
It was another gritty win for Arkansas, which shot just 37.7 percent from the field and made only one 3-pointer all night (1 for 9). Arkansas had some stretches with questionable shot selection, but it was able to exploit the Golden Eagles defensively by driving to the hoop. That will be more difficult against Baylor, however, as the Bears' quickness on the perimeter will cut off a lot of those penetration attempts.
What Arkansas will have to do, as it did against ORU, is capitalize on second-chance points. The Razorbacks are 45th in the nation in effective height and had 18 offensive rebounds in the Sweet 16, while Baylor is outside the Top-250 by allowing opponents to grab more than 30 percent of all available offensive boards.
But will that be enough? Baylor will shoot better from three and boasts a backcourt full of upperclassmen, compared to Arkansas featuring two freshmen and a senior, so it's hard to not like them to win...but 6.5 points is a lot to spot an Arkansas team that has a number of capable scorers and plays great defense—I don't think they're going to win, but I'm expecting the Hogs to have a third straight game come down to the final few possessions.
PREDICTION: Arkansas +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Both Baylor and Arkansas had key players have awful nights in the Sweet 16.
Jared Butler went 1 for 9 from deep (and 0 for 3 on free throws) for nine points while MaCio Teague finished with just five for the Bears. For Arkansas, Moses Moody finished with 14 points but was a brutal 4 for 20 from the field.
One of the reasons Baylor struggled shooting against Villanova, however, is because the Wildcats had taller, longer perimeter defenders to alter the Bears' triples—which is exactly what Arkansas boasts as Davonte Davis (6-foot-3), Jalen Tate (6-foot-6) and Moody (6-foot-6) all have length and are adept at contesting shots.
As mentioned above, Baylor is a high-pressure defense that doesn't let offenses get to where they want to go, settling instead for mid-range jumpers and plenty of threes. That approach was what got Arkansas into a hole against Oral Roberts, so if that's the case then we don't see them putting up a big number on Monday.
These clubs both finished Under the total in the Sweet 16, which was the second time in three games for Baylor and the fifth straight Under (eighth in the last 10) for Arkansas. With the games getting bigger and two defenses ranked in the Top 30 of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency squaring off, we're going to continue fading high-scoring games and back the Under here.
PREDICTION: Under 150 (-110)
First to 15 pick
Baylor jumped out to a 15-11 lead against Villanova, making it five straight games the Bears have won the race to 15 and eight of their last 11 games overall.
After falling behind 15-7 against Oral Roberts, Arkansas has been making it a habit of falling behind early in the Big Dance, losing the First to 15 prop in all three games.
Arkansas does not have a true playmaking point guard that runs the offense, and with Davion Mitchell spearheading a Bears defense that puts so much pressure on opposing backcourts, we’re going to take the top seed in the South to run out to an early lead and hit the 15-point threshold first.
PREDICTION: First to 15 - Baylor (-165)
Arkansas vs Baylor betting card
- Arkansas +6.5 (-110)
- Under 150 (-110)
- First to 15 - Baylor (-165)
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