The Houston Cougars and Florida Gators face off for the college basketball National Championship tonight.
Houston showed it could dominate the glass and knock down outside shots against a massive and defensively elite Duke squad in the Final Four.
I expect the same in the title game, which is why my March Madness picks are backing L.J. Cryer and Joseph Tugler on their player props.
Here are my free Florida vs. Houston predictions and prop picks for April 7, with tipoff at 8:50 p.m. ET from the Alamodome in San Antonio.
Florida vs Houston props
- Tugler 7+ rebounds (+140 at bet365)
- Condon Under 8.5 pts (-120 at bet365)
- Cryer Over 2.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Florida vs Houston National Championship props
Joseph Tugler 7+ rebounds (+140 at bet365)
Houston Cougars big man Joseph Tugler has grabbed 8+ rebounds in three of his last four games. The one contest during that span where he went below this number came against Purdue when he was limited to 15 minutes due to foul trouble.
The Florida Gators do a poor job of drawing fouls inside, and since they rotate four bigs in their lineup, Houston will need Tugler on the floor as much as possible.
Tugler generates plenty of second chances, grabbing 15 total offensive rebounds in the tourney against Duke, Tennessee, and Gonzaga. The Gators are vulnerable on the defensive glass and that combined with their fast pace (59th in adjusted tempo) has led to them ranking 317th in offensive rebounds per game allowed (9.8).
Tugler is short for his position at 6-foot-8 but makes up for that with physicality and a 7-foot-6 wingspan. He should be able to grab at least four offensive boards, and from there, the Big-12 Defensive Player of the Year will only need a few rebounds on the other end of the floor to hit this milestone.
Alex Condon Under 8.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Alex Condon has gone below this number in four straight games and had just a single point on 0-for-5 shooting against Auburn in the Final Four.
That doesn't bode well for his chances of scoring against a Cougars squad that allows the fewest points per game (58.5) in the country thanks to a dominant defense and sluggish tempo.
The center is playing through a bum ankle that sidelined him in February and flared up again last weekend. He's been practicing light with mainly stationary working progressions and pivot drills, so he's clearly not at full strength.
Condon hasn't played with confidence, hesitating to attack defenders and immediately passing when he got the ball against Auburn. It's extremely tough to get the ball inside against Houston, and when he does get the ball, he'll be swarmed by long and physical defenders like Tugler and Ja'Vier Francis.
L.J. Cryer Over 2.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
Seeing the Over 2.5 threes for L.J. Cryer open at +110 is a bit surprising. The Cougars' leading scorer had the Over 2.5 threes priced at -110 for Houston's Final Four matchup against Duke, who play significantly slower and are far better at defending the arc than Florida.
Cryer torched the Blue Devils' elite defense by going 6-for-9 from long range. He's eclipsed 2.5 threes in 13 of his last 19 games, draining 3.4 threes per game at 44.5% clip over that span.
Houston is just 292nd in 2-point percentage (48%) and will have a tough scoring inside against Florida who is 22nd in opponent 2PT% (46.4%).
However, the Cougars and Cryer will get good looks from the perimeter against a Gators squad that is 294th in defensive Open 3 Rate per ShotQualityBets.
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