Oral Roberts vs Duke Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Jurgens' Shooting Struggles Continue

The No. 12 seed Oral Roberts Golden Eagles face off against the No. 5 Duke Blue Devils in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night.

Oral Roberts might be a small school compared to the powerhouse that is Duke, but college basketball fans surely remember the Golden Eagles' March Madness run from two years ago.

March Madness odds have the Blue Devils as 6-point favorites with the Over/Under at 145.5. Here are my best free Oral Roberts vs. Duke college basketball picks for March 15. 

Be sure to also check out our March Madness picks page so you don't miss out on any of the action.

Oral Roberts vs Duke best odds

Oral Roberts vs Duke picks and predictions

While Max Abmas gets most of the attention from teams, Oral Roberts has a solid supporting cast including guard Carlos Jurgens. However, Jurgens has gone ice-cold from deep lately and is shooting just 2-for-12 from beyond the arc (16.7%) over his last two games. 

Jurgens isn't an efficient 3-point shooter, and his modest 33.7 three-point percentage this season is actually a career-high and significantly better than his 22.5% mark last year.

He'll find it tough to get open looks against a Blue Devils team that ranks 23rd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (30.6%) with that number dropping to 27.9% over their last three games. 

The O/U on Jurgen's 3-pointers made is at 1.5, with the Under juiced to -155 for an implied probability of 60.8%. Considering that he has gone below that number in 15 of his last 18 games (83.3%), the Under looks like a strong play.

My best bet: Carlos Jurgens Under 1.5 threes (-155 at bet365)

Oral Roberts vs Duke spread analysis

Duke is one of the hottest teams in the country with its young talent seeming to gel at the right time. The Blue Devils have won nine in a row and have covered the spread in their last four contests.

They looked terrific during the ACC Conference Tournament, hammering a good Pitt team by 27 points in the quarterfinals, beating Miami 85-78 in the semis, and defeating Virginia 59-49 in the finals.

ACC Freshman of the Year Kyle Filipowski leads Duke with 15.4 points and 9.0 rebounds per game, while point guard Jeremy Roach provides a much-needed veteran presence with 13.3 points and 3.1 assists per game. 

Oral Roberts went undefeated in Summit League play and is fresh off a 92-58 rout of North Dakota State in the conference tournament finals.

If you haven't been paying attention to the Summit League, you probably still remember the Golden Eagles from their Cinderella run in 2021.

Despite entering as a lowly No. 15 seed, they upset Ohio State in the opening round and knocked off Florida in the following round before coming up just short against Arkansas in the Sweet 16. 

Several starters from that squad remain, including two-time Summit League Player of the Year Max Abmas (22.1 ppg on 44/38/92 shooting splits) and guards Kareem Thompson and Jurgens. Kevin Obanor is gone but has been replaced by sharp-shooting big man Connor Vanover who averages 12.9 ppg and 7.2 rpg.

While the Golden Eagles have an impressive 30-4 record this season, they've gone 0-4 against Quadrant 1 foes and looked overmatched in each contest. They lost by eight points to Saint Mary's, seven points to New Mexico, and 10 points against Utah State, while getting smoked by 38 against Houston. 

Oral Roberts vs Duke Over/Under analysis

The Golden Eagles are fourth in the country with 82.5 ppg against Div 1 foes and rank 22nd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. They also like to push the pace and are 27th in average length of possession (16.0 seconds).

However, there's reason to think that Duke has the ability to slow them down. The Blue Devils rank 289th in the country in adjusted tempo and 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency, with the ability to control the flow of the game with their half-court sets and dominant rebounding. 

The Golden Eagles are heavily reliant on shots from beyond the arc with 45.8% of their field goal attempts coming from long range, which could be problematic against a Blue Devils team that defends very well on the perimeter.

Oral Roberts won't find it any easier to attack inside with Dereck Lively II (2.9 blocks per game since becoming a full-time starter on Jan. 28) protecting the rim.

That said, it has a dominant shot-blocker of its own in the 7-foot-5 Vanover who is second in the country with 3.3 bpg. That'll make it tough for a Duke offense that does its best work close to the basket. 

Oral Roberts vs Duke betting trend to know

The Under is 7-1 in the Golden Eagles' last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oral Roberts vs. Duke.

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