One of the first-round matchups in the East Region of our March Madness picks will see the 15th-seed Vermont Catamounts face off with the second-seed Marquette Golden Eagles on Friday.
Vermont finished the season at 23-10 overall and 14-2 in the America East Conference. The Catamounts come into this game with a 15-game win streak, including prevailing in every game of the conference tournament by double-digits.
Marquette finished the season at 28-6 overall and 17-3 in the Big East Conference. The Golden Eagles won 19 of their final 21 games, including winning the conference tournament at Madison Square Garden.
With March Madness odds favoring the Golden Eagles by double-digits, could we see another massive 15-seed upset in the Round of 64? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Vermont vs. Marquette to find out.
Vermont vs Marquette best odds
Vermont vs Marquette picks and predictions
We have seen massive upsets in recent years, but it usually takes either a terrible mismatch or a badly played game by the favorite for a shocker to occur. I'm not sure this game provides either.
Marquette’s biggest weakness is its inability to rebound and play tough down low. The Golden Eagles have been outrebounded in 10 straight games to end the season. They also rank 264th in offensive rebounding at 7.4 boards per game and 304th in total rebounding at 31.9 per game.
However, Vermont is a team full of guards that play around the perimeter, which the Golden Eagles should have no trouble neutralizing.
Vermont ranks just 354th in offensive rebounding at 5.3 boards per contest, and the Golden Eagles rank just eighth in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency.
Vermont is a solid defense in terms of points allowed per game at 66.7 points per game (67th). However, the Catamounts rank 153rd in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and allow their opponents to shoot 34.6% from 3-point land. Marquette shoots 34.8% from downtown and attempts 25.4 threes per game.
There is always the possibility that Vermont outshoots Marquette and pulls off a big upset. However, Marquette is not going to be outmatched anywhere else on Thursday.
The Golden Eagles would need to have a terrible shooting performance to not cover and win here.
My best bet: Marquette -10.5 (-108 at WynnBet)
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Vermont vs Marquette spread analysis
Another area where Marquette can avoid upset is by dominating time of possession. The Golden Eagles only average 10.7 turnovers per game, which ranks 36th in the country.
Point guard Tyler Kolek averages 7.7 assists to only 2.4 turnovers per contest, and he will run the offense efficiently and get good shots for his teammates. The Golden Eagles also rank third in the nation with 16 fast break points per contest.
The Catamounts are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine neutral site games, while the Golden Eagles are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games. Vermont lost by double-digits to six different teams this season, and only one of those programs qualified for the Round of 64 (Saint Mary's).
Marquette is not going to turn the ball over and will refuse to surrender any second-chance point opportunities. That makes it almost impossible for a team to pull off an upset when the talent discrepancy is so large.
The Golden Eagles should easily handle business here.
Vermont vs Marquette Over/Under analysis
While both teams will be focusing their offense around shooting threes, that does not necessarily mean there will be a ton of points scored. Vermont ranks 314th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo and Marquette comes in at 135th.
The Under is 5-2 in the Catamounts' last seven games against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and is 5-0 in the Golden Eagles' last five neutral site games. It is also 4-1 in the Golden Eagles' last five games overall.
There will be little to no second-chance points in this matchup and very few turnovers leading to quick buckets. It is possible that both teams shoot lights out from deep and hit this Over, but that is unlikely.
I have a decently heavy lean towards the Under.
Vermont vs Marquette betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in the Golden Eagles' last five games following a win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Vermont vs. Marquette.
Vermont vs Marquette game info
| Region: | East |
| Location: | Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Friday, March 17, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Vermont vs Marquette key injuries
