March Madness is here which means plenty of betting options for the Round of 64 tipping off on Thursday.
With so much to bet on, it's easy to be overwhelmed but our handicappers at Covers are breaking things down with our three favorite March Madness picks for each round.
Here are two of my most confident bets for the opening round as well as a longshot with great plus-money value.
March Madness predictions
Wofford Terriers team total Under 57.5 (-125 at bet365)
The Tennessee Volunteers always seem to defend at an elite level under Rick Barnes and this year is no different with the Volunteers coming into the tourney with the No. 3 rated defense in the country per KenPom.
The Vols had been shutting down highly-rated offenses in the SEC all season until the Conference Tournament Final when they got lit up by the red-hot Florida Gators. They'll be pissed off and will take it out on the Wofford Terriers who are taking part in March Madness for the first time since 2019.
It's a bit of a surprise that the Terriers are even here since they finished sixth in the Southern Conference standings during the regular season but secured their spot in the Round of 64 by winning their conference tourney. The Terriers have decent shooting numbers but play at an extremely slow pace.
There's also a big difference between getting good looks against SoCon foes and an elite high-major school like Tennessee. Wofford has only played one high-major opponent all season and that was the Blue Devils who held them to just 35 points back in November.
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Yale +7.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Texas A&M Aggies are a No. 4 seed from the top conference in the country but the Yale Bulldogs match up very well against them.
Yale's biggest weakness is its ability to defend the arc, allowing 9.5 threes per game at a 33.7% clip. However, the Aggies don't have the shooters to take advantage, ranking 243rd in threes per game (7.0) while sitting outside the Top 300 in 3-point percentage (31.1%).
The Aggies' biggest strengths are ball pressure (58th in opponent TO rate) and their dominance on the glass (fourth in rebounding rate). However, Yale is 18th in the country in turnover rate and 13th in rebounding rate so those advantages won't be as prominent.
The Bulldogs have gone dancing in four of the previous seven tournaments and have often outperformed expectations. Last year they shocked Auburn in the opening round as a No. 13 seed and in 2016 they upset Baylor as a No. 12 seed. They also had a 5-point loss to LSU as a No. 14 seed in 2019, and should once again be competitive against a higher-seeded opponent.
March Madness longshot bet
Tobe Awaka 13+ rebounds (+1100 at bet365)
We should have a fun matchup in the opening round between the No. 13 seed Akron Zips and No. 4 Arizona Wildcats who both play at a blazing-fast pace. An up-tempo game means plenty of possessions which will lead to higher rebounding numbers for both sides.
Forward Tobe Awaka has been a force on the boards for the Wildcats, leading the team with 7.8 rebounds per game. That number is even more impressive when you realize that he does it in just 19.7 minutes per game.
Akron has the smallest lineup in the country in terms of height efficiency per KenPom, and I expect Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd to give the 6-foot-8, 250-pound Awaka plenty of minutes to take advantage of that weakness. Awaka has grabbed at least 13 boards in four games this season and that milestone pays out at a lucrative +1100 at bet365.
