Congratulations, you pulled off the easy part of a March Madness survivor competition; you survived the first round. It was easier than ever this year, the first time since 2017 that all of the No. 1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds advanced to the second round.
The game that eliminated the most survivor entries was McNeese State’s upset of Clemson on Thursday, and even that knocked out less than 8% of entries, going off the two pools yours truly is in.
This chalk-heavy bracket makes this round miserably difficult. No title favorite can yet claim a largely clear path to the Final Four. You would have loved to see one you could set aside for a while. Alas, no such luck.
Before deciding who you'll use as your second-round survivor picks, determine who you will not use. Looking at the futures odds at bet365, only four teams are considered genuine national championship contenders: Duke at +200, Florida at +340, Auburn at +500, and Houston at +600.
It sounds obvious to rule out the four No. 1 seeds, but the real surprise is that no one else has odds lower than Alabama’s at +1,800. Texas Tech (+2,500), Iowa State (+3,300), and Gonzaga (+2,500) join the other two seeds in the mix of vaguely possible champions, albeit each rather unlikely.
So do not take any of the No. 1 seeds. Don’t do it, not even as a contrarian play. It is too early to make a survivor pick simply to be a contrarian.
Lastly, remember the ideal is to find a team you are nearly certain will win but then also lose in the Sweet Sixteen or in the Elite Eight. The Wisconsin vs. BYU tossup may be entertaining, but choosing a victor there does not quite qualify as “nearly certain.”
Now, not to give away my picks for Saturday and Sunday — if you happen to be in the same survivor pool as I am, please stop reading now — but here are my best thoughts, which admittedly and obviously heavily correlate with my March Madness bracket, so far largely intact with 14 Sweet Sixteen predictions afoot and seven Elite Eight teams alive.
Best second-round March Madness survivor picks
Saturday: Tennessee
While the Tennessee Volunteers currently have the best odds of the No. 2 seeds to advance to the Final Four, along with Michigan State at +375, the third team in the region looms closer to the Vols than the other two seeds have to worry about.
Gonzaga is priced as steeply as +475 only because it has to go through Houston first. Whoever wins that 1 vs. 8 matchup today will have drastically better odds of reaching the Final Four than the Volunteers.
So, Tennessee fits the want of likely losing in the Elite Eight, if not the Sweet Sixteen.
How certain are you that the Vols will win? First of all, UCLA head coach Mick Cronin has outperformed his seed just once in his last 10 March Madness appearances, the pandemic-impacted 2021 tournament. That trend has already started showing itself in the last three months, the Bruins going 0-5 outright as underdogs since the year flipped.
While Tennesee may be only a 5-point favorite, its superiority both in rebounding and interior defense should stymie UCLA enough to assure a survivor bid lasting another day without costing a Final Four likelihood.
Sunday: Alabama
Including the Alabama Crimson Tide is not the endorsement of Duke that it seems. Rather, it's avoiding a Sweet Sixteen shootout that will induce worries of variance. And beyond that, well, Alabama should lose to Duke.
Duke has a defense that should slow Alabama’s 3-point shooting regardless of whether the Tide is hot or cold that day. Wisconsin and BYU do not, but the Tide could still be cold.
Both the Badgers and the Cougars shoot enough — No. 20 in rate and No. 18, respectively — that if Alabama is at all cold, Wisconsin or BYU could take great advantage.
Saint Mary’s has none of those assets, a middling offense that relies far too much on offensive rebounds for success. Alabama ranked No. 5 in the SEC in defensive rebounding rate, battling frontcourts mostly bigger than the Gaels’.
That single defensive emphasis should end the Saint Mary’s season. The Gaels cannot trust any other options. They went 0-for-16 in the WCC title game. That low-end shooting variance underscores the margin of error Alabama relishes now that it will not enjoy in the next round.
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Saturday: St. John's
Not to step on Jason Logan’s toes, but his risky underdog bet of Arkansas runs counter to what may be the second-best survivor pick on Saturday.
That is partly because the West Region is the tightest to ponder. The team with the fourth-best odds of advancing, No. 4 seed Maryland, sits at +700, the shortest among the fourth-best odds in the respective regions.
If you ever take the St. John's Red Storm, it may have to be now. It would be an underdog to Texas Tech in the Sweet Sixteen.
St. John’s falls short of the “nearly certain will win” metric in this pondering, but it strongly fits the hope of “then also lose in the Sweet Sixteen or in the Elite Eight.” Realize no No. 2 seed that began the season unranked has ever reached the Final Four. The Red Storm’s ceiling is near.
Also considered for Saturday: Texas A&M:
How much do you trust the Aggies to beat Michigan? The Wolverines are playing their fifth game in nine days, which may prove costly. However, this spread is within a bucket, and as the SEC struggles, it becomes harder to put faith in teams below the top two seed lines.
Sunday: Michigan State
This thought has toggled between the Michigan State Spartans and Iowa State. Making the decision comes down to handicapping their hypothetical matchup, which admittedly presumes both will win their second-round games, and New Mexico poses a genuine test for the Spartans.
However, if doubting New Mexico’s ability to spring an upset, then go ahead and doubt Michigan State beating Iowa State.
Their offensive and defensive 3-point percentages run directly counter to each other, but the Cyclones are more reliable offensively. Iowa State has taken 3-pointers on 41% of its field-goal attempts in the last month, making 39.6% of those shots. The Spartans toil at only 32.6% of attempts, then making 36.5% of them.
Both defenses force a bounty of bad threes, but Iowa State is more likely to make them, mitigating Michigan State’s rebounding edge.
Looking too far ahead can doom a survivor entry, but the loser of a hypothetical Michigan State vs. Iowa State matchup is a team you should take in this second round.
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Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
