Congratulations, you survived two wildly chalk-filled rounds to reach the Sweet Sixteen in your March Madness survivor competition. Clearly you did not pick St. John’s. Let me guess, you were part of the 40% to thank Maryland forward Derik Queen for his travel and game-winning buzzer-beater.
The rest of us despise you. These pools are sitting too full. They have not narrowed … yet.
They will.
Looking at the Sweet 16 in this March Madness bracket, you must ask yourself if now is the time to be a contrarian. With so many people surviving thus far, you have two options.
1) Go contrarian at some point this weekend, take a risk, and hope you are one of the few to be right. That thinned pool immediately gives you greater expected value and possible hedge opportunities.
2) Bet entirely on chalk, all four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four and Duke winning. This could happen, and surviving is the biggest key to a survivor pool, but your expected value will fall, and the likelihood of a split pool will be high.
Regardless of your approach, you want winners on Thursday and Friday that push you forward and, hopefully, provide you some flexibility in the Elite Eight.
Best March Madness Sweet 16 survivor picks
Thursday: Florida Gators
This might be the right balance between contrarian and chalk. Taking a No. 1 seed is obviously a “chalk” play, but the Florida Gators also have the lowest odds of the four No. 1 seeds of winning this game, hence a contrarian thought.
Maryland could pull off this upset, which is a worrying thing to include in this write-up. But ponder your other options...
Two-thirds of the Covers Bracket Breakdown like BYU to beat Alabama as a +185 moneyline underdog at bet365, but are you bold enough to take a 5.5-point underdog in a survivor pool?
BYU's shooting is more reliable than Alabama's, so I'll take the value of the moneyline and risk it with the Over.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) March 27, 2025
For a pile of more @Covers picks for tonight from me, @CoversJLo and @Covers_Ro, enjoy our scorching hot March: https://t.co/PnRzS01Wfm pic.twitter.com/1SO22D71cg
That would certainly be an outright contrarian approach to setting yourself up with Duke into the Final Four, which is a contrarian thought in that it does not save the Blue Devils for the title game.
Would you want to take Duke in the Sweet 16? Personally, this was considered. I tend not to be cautious in life, and I am frustrated by 305 out of 669 entries surviving thus far in my primary pool. The pool organizer might tell me there is a 30% chance no one works their way through all 10 picks, but I fear two dozen of us making it to the end.
I would rather concoct a version of the pool where I am one of the few standing at the end. But only take the Blue Devils on Thursday if you are adamant about picking against them on Saturday, regardless of whether BYU or Alabama wins that matchup.
That leaves Arkansas vs. Texas Tech. Taking the Red Raiders is best if you want to hold onto the Gators.
Texas Tech should make clean work of John Calipari’s new home. The Raiders can actually shoot the ball, unlike Kansas and St. John’s. Look to Jason Logan for a more thorough explanation of that clear reality.
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Friday: Michigan State Spartans
Pulling away from Creighton late does not assuage worries about Auburn. The Tigers are now 1-5 against the spread in their last six, losing three of those games outright, all three as favorites.
But it was encouraging to see Auburn’s guards take over, a trio combining for 55 points on 6 of 9 from deep and 18 of 34 from the field. Perhaps more impressively, they turned the ball over only four times while adding seven assists.
The Tigers needed that perimeter play while Johni Broome struggled against Ryan Kalkbrenner, the unanimous first-team All-American, managing only eight points on 4-for-13 shooting.
That bettered guard play provides enough encouragement to trust Auburn to at least escape the South Region, a 53.7% likelihood per Ken Pomeroy. And with that in mind, the best possible choice in the Sweet 16 is to find the team the Tigers will beat in the Elite Eight.
The Michigan State Spartans may be only 3.5-point favorites against the Mississippi Rebels, but their dominance on the glass should determine this game. Michigan State was the best rebounding team in the Big Ten. Mississippi was the worst rebounding team in the SEC.
Rarely is life that simple, but who would you rather trust in a close game?
The better rebounding team that also happens to be the better free-throw shooting team? Oh, and it gets to the line more often? Or the other?
If Michigan State is too chalky of a play for you, the Friday contrarian choice is Houston. The Cougars’ defense will make life miserable for Purdue’s guards, and taking Houston would allow you to avoid the coin flip of Kentucky vs. Tennessee. Just know, you are then committed to faith in the winner of that SEC tilt.
And considering Houston is the No. 2 team in the country since Feb. 15, by barttorvik numbers, and the only team within reach of Duke, using the Cougars in the Sweet 16 is, at best, a round early. Hence the “contrarian” description.
