No. 6 Marquette will leave the safe confines of home for its first road trip in three games when it heads to face Providence in the college basketball odds.
Providence has prevailed in three of its last four games and will enter this matchup coming off a win over Sacred Heart. Meanwhile, Marquette comes into this matchup off a poor showing against St Thomas (MN), where it needed some late heroics from Tyler Kolek to get the five-point win.
What's the best bet in this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Marquette vs. Providence on Tuesday, December 19.
Marquette vs Providence best odds
Marquette vs Providence picks and predictions
The best way Marquette can score against Providence is through isolation, which differs from how the Golden Eagles usually like to run their offense. The uniqueness of this matchup has steered me away from either side, and I'm firmly focused on heading to the prop market for my best bet here.
The best bet will be backing the reigning Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek, to deliver in his return to his home state of Rhode Island.
"If they are going to leave me open like that, I owe it to my team to shoot. I was wide open," Kolek said earlier this season after dropping 28 points in a win against Texas.
He'll have some open looks tonight, and I like my chances of backing him when that happens. Kolek has excelled against the three other teams he's faced this season that employ a drop-coverage defensive approach, which includes the Texas game and a notable performance in a loss against Purdue where he scored 22 points. Tonight, he'll see another one, and I expect similar results.
One of the places the Friars feel the adverse effects of drop coverage is in pick-and-roll defense. On the season, Providence is in the 18th percentile of pick-and-roll handler defense, allowing 0.85 points per possession and 39% shooting.
As you might expect, this is a place where Kolek thrives. He'll enter this game with 45% shooting on those sets, which places him in the Top 5 among qualified Big East players. However, the more pivotal part of this handicap is that the Golden Eagles will want Kolek to have the ball in his hands more in this situation. He's the best dribbler on the Marquette team, and that dribble creation is vital when breaking down this defensive scheme.
Historically, Kolek has thrived against Providence. In two games against the Friars last season, he cleared 20+ points twice.
This game is likely to come down to the final few possessions, so Marquette will be looking for Kolek more and more as we head down the stretch of the game. I'm expecting an outstanding performance by the Golden Eagles point guard tonight.
My best bet: Tyler Kolek Over 16.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
Marquette vs Providence same-game parlay
Tyler Kolek Over 16.5 points
Marquette moneyline
I'm taking my best bet of Kolek to eclipse 16.5 points and pairing it with Marquette to get the win.
This is a straightforward breakdown for me. If Kolek has the game that the matchup suggests he's capable of having, then I'm not sure how Providence finds enough offense.
Marquette's defense isn't otherworldly, but it's good enough to slow down what Providence wants to do on offense. The Friars don't possess nearly enough of a multi-faceted offense to find ways to overcome that.
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Marquette vs Providence spread and Over/Under analysis
As I suggested above, I'd like Marquette to win here, but I'm not keen on laying what is close to multiple possessions. I projected this number at -2, so -4.5 is too rich for me.
Whenever you think of Marquette, you think of dazzling shooting and many points. While both of those things are true in a vacuum, they have yet to be reflected in the totals for Marquette.
In fact, the Under has cashed in four of the last five Golden Eagles' games. I'm leaning towards the Under again tonight because I don't expect Providence to be able to do its part.
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Marquette vs Providence betting trend to know
Kolek has eclipsed 16.5 points in two of his last three games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Marquette vs. Providence.
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Marquette vs Providence game info
| Location: | Amica Mutual Pavillion, Providence, RI |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Marquette vs Providence key injuries
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