One of the marque matchups of a stacked Week 7 in college football sees the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions head to SoCal to take on the USC Trojans.
Penn State features an elite defense while USC’s offense isn’t operating at maximum effectiveness as you’d expect from a Lincoln Riley team, so my Penn State vs. USC predictions are eyeing the total.
Read on for my best bet and college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Penn State vs USC prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 50.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Andy Kotelnicki was one of the most impactful coordinator hires of the offseason, providing a significant boost for the Penn State Nittany Lions offensively.
The USC Trojans’ defense had a huge year-to-year upgrade, with D’Anton Lynn taking over that side of the ball. They bottle up big plays (19th in explosiveness), but teams can move the ball on them, especially on the ground (93rd in EPA per rush, 81st in line yards, 89th in stuff rate).
I expect more of the same on Saturday where Penn State picks up first downs and moves the ball with star running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. This will keep the clock ticking throughout the contest.
The Nittany Lions have a severe lack of playmakers other than their two tailbacks, especially for a playoff-caliber team, and USC keeps a lid on things anyway, so it’d be a surprise if we saw many big plays. The Trojans lead the Big Ten in third down conversion rate and lead the nation in EPA per play and success rate on passing downs.
On the other side, USC’s offense also moves the ball pretty well (15th in success rate but 41st in EPA per play) while lacking explosiveness (125th).
This matchup doesn’t set up very well as Penn State is elite up front (second in line yards, first in stuff rate, 10th in front-seven havoc) and is great on a down-to-down basis (sixth in success rate). The Nittany Lions are allowing just 11.4 ppg on 233.2 total yards and 4.0 yards per play, which are elite numbers any way you slice it.
Give me the Under in a game between two teams that don’t push the tempo and don’t create many explosives. Most scoring drives will need to be of the long and sustained variety.
Penn State vs USC same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 50.5
Kaytron Allen Over 49.5 rushing yards
Ja'Kobi Lane anytime touchdown
Nicholas Singleton is back at practice and could’ve suited up last week if he was needed, so I was eyeing his props in this contest. None are currently offered at BetMGM as of the time of this writing, so be on the lookout if any are added near the end of the week as he’ll likely play and be full-go.
Backfield teammate Kaytron Allen has props up and I’m buying the Over 49.5 on his rushing yardage prop as he runs behind an effective offensive line (16th in line yards) that holds a massive statistical advantage over its opponent. USC is banged up defensively, and notable to this handicap, star linebacker Eric Gentry is out indefinitely, while edge rusher Anthony Lucas is considered questionable.
Ja’Kobi Lane has been quarterback Miller Moss’ go-to receiver in the red zone, racking up four touchdown receptions and leading the team with 234 yards. He has 10 contested catches and will be needed in this matchup as Penn State is elite against the rush (sixth in EPA per play, seventh in success rate) but just OK against the pass (44th in EPA per play, 77th in explosiveness).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Penn State vs USC odds
Penn State vs USC live odds
Penn State vs USC opening odds
- Penn State vs. USC spread: USC +5
- Penn State vs. USC moneyline: Penn State -200, USC +165
- Penn State vs. USC Over/Under: 48
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Penn State vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis
- Penn State is coming off four straight home games and is now traveling west for a 12:30 pm kickoff. While this isn’t ideal from a traveling perspective, the time difference shouldn’t affect East Coast teams as much as West Coast teams.
- Both teams have played to the Under — Penn State is 1-4 O/U while USC is 2-3 O/U. Penn State has cashed the Under in eight of its last 13 games.
Penn State vs USC betting trend to know
Penn State is 2-4 O/U in its last six away games. Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs USC.
Penn State vs USC game info
| Location: | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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