Minnesota vs Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Falling Down the Gopher Hole

A Big Ten affair is set when a struggling Michigan hosts Minnesota.

The Wolverines would have expected this season to start differently. Michigan enters this game with questions about its head coach, Juwan Howard, and a 6-7 record. In addition to the season record, it comes into this matchup off back-to-back losses, including an 11-point to McNeese State. It'll look at conference play as a potential spot to stop the freefall. 

Minnesota has had a solid start to the year. It reached double-digit wins before the new year amid a five-game winning streak. There are some legitimate questions about the schedule up to this point – after all, it did lose its first conference game of the season to Ohio State by double digits – however, those questions will be answered as we head into conference play. 

What's the best bet in this one? Find out as we break down the college basketball odds and give it in our college basketball picks and predictions for Thursday, January 4th.

Minnesota vs Michigan best odds

Minnesota vs Michigan picks and predictions

I'm not sure Michigan has reached the bottom. Over the past month, I've seen a dysfunctional team that has not improved and regressed from an offensive standpoint. These are problems its coach is well aware of, too. 

"There were some passes that we tried, but I thought the guys were open by making cross-court passes that led to turnovers," Wolverines coach Juwan Howard said after the loss. "Defensively, they brought the juice, and we didn't."

That juice, or lack thereof, is a direct part of this handicap. It's not something you can quantify with statistics, but it's very noticeable when Michigan takes the floor how often they fail to match the opponent's energy. I saw a significant edge in this game and projected it as a coin flip. Considering that, I can't pass up the opportunity to grab the Minnesota moneyline as my best bet. 

Leading scorer Dawson Garcia is back for the Gophers, and he looked great in his most recent return. 

That return came against Maine, where he logged 12 points and six rebounds over 28 minutes. He'll likely get more time tonight, and his presence is a pivotal part of this handicap. Michigan has struggled mightily overall defensively, but one place it has worked in particular is in the post. Blue has allowed .86 points per possession, which places them in the bottom 35% of college basketball. Unfortunately for Michigan, this is where Garcia has thrived. He's scored 55% of the post-up sets he's been part of, ranking among the best Big Ten players.

Minnesota exploiting this should open everything else for its offense. Michigan has been easy to score on, ranking 194th in effective field goal percentage on the season. This defensive issue should make them much easier to score on. It's a difference that will prove decisive. 

If this isn't the difference, there are problems on the other side of the ball, too. Michigan's offense has been prolific this season, and they'll find some success here on pick-and-rolls; however, Minnesota should be able to slow down one of its primary methods of offense.

That primary method is what Michigan wants to do on spot-up sets. It has marked the majority of its offensive, and for good reason, the Wolverines have been highly influential in scoring on such sets. Entering this game, it is in the top 10% of college basketball in spot-up scoring, averaging 1.05 points per possession. Minnesota's defense ranks similarly defending this and should be able to limit it significantly. When Michigan has faced similar teams, its offense has struggled, and there's little reason to suggest that it stops tonight.

This game has a high range of outcomes because of how erratic these teams have been. However, there's too much value to pass up here on a team that has looked better than the other over the last month and has minimal or any talent differential from the other. 

My best bet: Minnesota moneyline (+230 at FanDuel)

Minnesota vs Michigan same-game parlay

Minnesota moneyline

Dawson Garcia Over 17.5 points

+373 at FanDuel

This shouldn't be much of a surprise. We're placing a significantly correlated parlay for an excellent return. 

Simply put, Minnesota only wins this game with a big game from Garcia. I think we're getting what amounts closely to a "free space" playing this prop in a same-game parlay. The crux of this handicap is Garcia exploiting the soft interior defense of Michigan that has defended poorly en route to a victory. This parlay puts that thought process into action.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Minnesota vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

This evening, we're on the Minnesota moneyline; it's the best bet.

Although the competition has been questionable, what is unquestionable is how much better the Gophers have played than Michigan over the last month. One team enters this matchup off a loss to a non-Power Five team, while the other has regularly blown such opponents out. The value in this matchup should be paid attention to. It means nothing to the handicap, but interestingly, a pattern has emerged of each team winning two in a row against each other in this series over the last ten years. The Wolverines will enter this matchup with a two-game winning streak against the Gophers.

I have virtually no opinion on the total.

It is nearly exactly what I projected, leaving me no edge. Both teams have high-octane offenses, but the total has reflected that. With one team seemingly having the ability to take away what the other does best, it may be worth looking for an in-game play on the Over rather than touching the matchup pregame. These two teams combined are on a streak of six straight overs.

Minnesota vs Michigan betting trend to know

Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 30 games (+4.10 Units / 4% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Minnesota vs. Michigan.

Minnesota vs Michigan game info

Minnesota vs Michigan key injuries

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