The Buffalo Bills hit the highway in Week 10, set to visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
As Buffalo crosses the midway mark of the schedule, the grind of the NFL season shows on the team’s injury report — specifically at receiver. There’s a laundry list of ailments to Josh Allen’s top targets, which see my Bills vs. Colts predictions open the door for a big game from slot man Khalil Shakir.
My latest NFL picks break down the spread, total, and player props for this November 10 all-AFC affair. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with the game airing on CBS.
Bills vs Colts prediction
Who will win?
This is a tricky spot for the Buffalo Bills. Not only are they on the road, but a massive showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs looms in Week 11.
We’re seeing this spread dip from the opener of -4.5, with some shops as low as Bills -3.5 due to the injury concerns at receiver. The current outright odds give Buffalo an implied win probability of around 67%.
If we look at road favorites between -3.5 and -4.5, they carry a 64% outright win rate since 1985, so this one could be tighter than expected.
I’m projecting a 24-21 win for the Bills in Week 10.
My best bet
Khalil Shakir Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Even before you account for the possible missing bodies in the Bills’ receiving corps, Khalil Shakir gets a great matchup against the Indianapolis Colts defense.
The Colts currently rank 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback, with opposing passers enjoying a success rate per pass of 47.2%, along with an average passer rating of 100.2 (25th). Those numbers are also tempered a bit, as Indianapolis hasn’t played many quality QBs and none as strong as Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Indianapolis runs zone coverage almost exclusively and Shakir is by far Buffalo’s best WR against zone schemes, ranking Top-18 among qualified receivers in the NFL against zone, according to PFF. On top of that, Shakir is among the top players in the NFL in yards after the catch, sitting third in YAC heading into Week 10 (358 YAC). The Colts defense has given up the 10th most YAC and enters the weekend fourth-worst in missed tackles.
Shakir is also becoming a popular option for Allen, seeing his targets jump in the past three games. He’s drawn 24 total passes and has hauled in all but two of those throws for a collective 222 yards since Week 7.
His growing production could see a significant spike in Week 10 if the Bills’ injury report holds true. As of this writing, fellow WRs Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Curtis Samuel are all listed as questionable for the Colts game.
Player projections for Week 10 range from 48 yards to a ceiling of 66 yards from Shakir, with the bulk of models coming in Over his receiving yards total of 53.5 O/U. My number settles in at just north of 60 yards on Sunday.
Shakir’s ceiling is much higher considering the Colts' dreadful pass defense, the Bills’ WR concerns, as well as this game being played indoors on the fast turf of Lucas Oil Stadium.
Allen also sees his output surge indoors, with a QB rating of 106.7 versus 92.3 outdoors, a completion rate of 70.73% up from 62.79%, and 8.43 yards per attempt against 7.19 in open-air venues.
Bills vs Colts same-game parlay
Khalil Shakir 50+ receiving yards
James Cook anytime touchdown
Bills moneyline
Shakir is one of the few healthy WRs for the Bills, and the bulk of projections call for 50+ receiving yards. He'll break off extra gains after the catch against a poor Indy pass defense.
Meanwhile, James Cook will be involved on the ground and through the air and has four touchdowns in his last four games.
The Bills could get caught looking ahead to KC in Week 11, so I’m going to pass on the spread and take Buffalo to battle for the outright win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bills vs Colts odds
Bills vs Colts live odds
Bills vs Colts opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo -4.5 | Indianapolis +4.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo -210 | Indianapolis +170
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bills vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
• This spread opened at Bills -4.5 and has moved down to as low as -3.5, with most of the markets dealing Buffalo -4. Injuries to the Bills receiving corps are dragging this spread down. Covers Consensus shows 72% of picks laying points with the visitor.
• The total hit the board at 47.5 and is now up to 48 points. According to Covers Consensus, 60% of picks on the total are taking the Over.
Bills vs Colts betting trend to know
Since 2021, Indianapolis is just 5-15 SU as underdogs of more than a field goal (+3.5 or higher) but is 12-8 ATS (60%) in those games, including 4-2 ATS as home pups of +3.5 or more. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Colts.
Bills vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bills vs Colts latest injuries
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