One of the season's biggest surprises, the Colorado Buffaloes has won five of its last six games as it heads to Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Between Shedeur Sanders playing like one of the top QBs in the country and Travis Hunter being the Heisman co-favorite, I expect the Buffaloes' star power to be the difference in my Colorado vs. Texas Tech predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 9.
Colorado vs Texas Tech prediction and best bet
My best bet
Colorado -4 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s funny that last year the Colorado Buffaloes got non-stop attention despite the team not being very good. And this year, now that the Buffaloes might really compete for the Big 12 title, there seems to be fatigue over Deion Sanders’ team and that’s taking away from its success this season.
Regardless, after a slow start to the year in which Colorado failed to cover ATS in its first two games, the Buffs have gone 6-0 ATS since Week 3. Clearly Sanders’ approach is working, and it should continue to against Texas Tech.
While the Texas Tech Red Raiders are coming off an upset road win over Iowa State, they’ve been one of the most inconsistent teams in the Big 12 this season. In their two previous games before knocking off the Cyclones, they lost 59-35 to Baylor and 35-34 to TCU.
The Bears (48th) and Horned Frogs (39th) both rank below the Buffs in SP+ (37th), and Texas Tech is just 60th by that metric. Its defense, in particular, has been a problem at times this season and sits just 85th in SP+.
That’s the biggest reason I expect Colorado to cover the spread. Joey McGuire’s team is 119th out of 134 teams in points allowed per game (34.4) and is giving up the fifth-most yards per game in the country (462.1).
It’s almost shocking that the Red Raiders are 6-3 with how bad this defense has been. And to make matters worse, it’s struggled more stopping the pass than the run, which is perfect for Colorado.
With Sanders behind center, the Buffs are 28th in EPA per dropback, while Texas Tech is allowing the country's second-most passing yards per game (307.2). Sanders should be capable of exploiting that, he’s the only QB in the nation with 20-plus big-time throws and fewer than nine turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Between his willingness to push the ball deep and his plethora of NFL talent at wide receiver, Sanders can lead enough scoring drives for Colorado to cover in what could be somewhat of a shootout.
Colorado vs Texas Tech same-game parlay (SGP)
Colorado -4
Travis Hunter Over 85.5 receiving yards
Tahj Brooks anytime touchdown
When Colorado is at its best, Hunter is playing like the Heisman favorite. After missing parts of the Buffaloes’ games against Kansas State and Arizona, he looked unstoppable in Colorado’s last outing against Cincinnati.
Hunter’s now finished with 89-plus receiving yards in all six games he’s been healthy enough to finish. He’s also top 30 in the country among receivers in both contested catches (7) and missed tackles forced (13), so he can win in 50/50 situations or after the catch.
However, he’s not the only future NFL playmaker set to take the field Saturday. Texas Tech’s offense relies heavily on Tahj Brooks, who’s one of the best running backs in college football.
Brooks is top 20 in the country in rushing yards after contact (615) and missed tackles forced (46), and he’s scored a touchdown in seven of eight games this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Colorado vs Texas Tech odds
Colorado vs Texas Tech live odds
Colorado vs Texas Tech opening odds
- Colorado vs. Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech +2 (-110)
- Colorado vs. Texas Tech moneyline: Colorado -150, Texas Tech +125
- Colorado vs. Texas Tech Over/Under: 62.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Colorado vs Texas Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
- Colorado opened as a 2.5-point road favorite, and the line has only shifted further in the Buffaloes direction, with most books offering them at -4.
- Colorado is one of the best teams ATS this season at 6-2, but Texas Tech isn’t far behind at 5-3-1.
- The Over/Under opened between 62 and 63.5, and there’s been minimal movement, with most books hovering around 62.5.
- The Buffaloes are 4-3-1 betting the Over this season, while the Red Raiders are 5-4.
Colorado vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
Colorado has covered the spread in eight of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Colorado vs. Texas Tech. Find more college football betting trends for Colorado vs Texas Tech.
Colorado vs Texas Tech game info
| Location: | Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-9, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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