Florida State vs Notre Dame Prediction and Picks: Power of Love

Tough break, NBC. The network of the Peacock undoubtedly thought it had a possible Playoff play-in matchup with the Florida State Seminoles at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish late in the season.

Alas, no one will tune in to see that drama this weekend. Instead, the only intrigue will be to see how the Irish make the Seminoles’ season somehow even worse.

Any free college football picks need to recognize that comedic likelihood. Every step of the way, things have gotten worse for Mike Norvell’s ACC title defense, to an extent that “worse” yet no longer feels possible. But my Florida State vs. Notre Dame predictions expect the Irish to make it clear, things can always get worse. 

Florida State vs Notre Dame prediction and best bet

My best bet
Notre Dame -25.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
The only worry here should be a backdoor cover from the Florida State Seminoles, but the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have shown a late-game relentlessness to diminish that concern.

The Irish have won by at least a possession more than the spread expected in three of their last six games. They have won by at least three possessions in five of the six. They do not mind blowing out an opponent.

And the Seminoles’ offense does not have the punch needed for a garbage-time touchdown. They produce a quality drive on just 27.7% of their possessions, No. 129 in the country. A number that low speaks to Florida State’s inability both to mount methodical drives and to enjoy explosive scores. There is more than one reason the Seminoles have reached the end zone just 14 times in nine games.

Florida State will struggle to string together multiple first downs on possessions. That will give Notre Dame a bounty of chances to put points on the board.

And the Irish rushing game is too potent to stop putting points on the board. Notre Dame ranks No. 2 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Even when the Irish try to ease up, their defense will continue to stifle the Seminoles, setting up the Notre Dame running game with solid enough field position to keep putting points on the board.

And, one last pertinent note, Florida State’s rush defense is too vulnerable to explosive plays to keep the Irish hemmed in.

Florida State vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)

Notre Dame -25.5

Over 42.5

Jeremiyah Love anytime TD

+200 at BetMGM

Notre Dame’s defense may be the quiet key to covering this massive spread, and not in the way you assume. Once the Irish have a decent lead at halftime, Florida State will need to resort to passing to try to catch up quickly. And that is when the Notre Dame chaos will kick in.

The Seminoles quarterbacks — splitting time between sophomore Brock Glenn and freshman Luke Kromenhoek — have completed just 40.8% of their passes in their last three games, throwing four interceptions along the way. The Irish will pick off at least one, and given the field position that should be natural to this game, that interception will set up the Notre Dame offense with a short-field score.

That particular score may or may not come from sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love, but it should be assured he crosses the goal line at some point. Love has reached the end zone at least once in every game this season, and Notre Dame’s coaching staff is aware of this streak. It will make sure Love scores in every game this year.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Florida State vs Notre Dame odds

Florida State vs Notre Dame live odds

Florida State vs Notre Dame opening odds

• Florida State vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -24.5
• Florida State vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Florida State +1,550, Notre Dame -5,000
• Florida State vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 43.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Florida State vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis

• Summertime lines set Notre Dame as a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup, long expected to be a top-tier moment with Playoff ramifications.
• Sunday’s numbers reopened this market with the Irish as 25-point favorites, spending some of Sunday at -24.5 before settling that night at -25.5.
• To be clear, yes, that is a full 20-point swing in this spread from the summer lookaheads to the fall reality.
• This total opened at 41.5 on Sunday and jumped to 43.5 before all books had even opened the market. But then on Monday morning, it slipped to 42.5 and held there.

Florida State vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

Since that embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has held five of six opponents below their team totals, though cashing the Over on the game’s total in three of those five moments. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs Notre Dame.

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