NC State vs Louisville Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Wolfpack Prey on Cardinals

The second of three ACC tournament tilts tips off at 4:30 p.m. ET when the North Carolina State Wolfpack tangle with the Louisville Cardinals inside Capital One Arena.

The Wolfpack stumbled down the stretch, entering the postseason on a four-game slide that sunk NC State to No. 10 in the ACC and saw their March Madness odds take a hit. The Wolfpack battled a hectic schedule to close the year and may not have leading scorer D.J. Horne for Tuesday after he was injured in the regular season finale.

The Cardinals are on a slump of their own, having lost seven straight heading into the tournament and lugging a 0-7 ATS mark during that stretch. Louisville has just two wins going back to a January 13 loss to North Carolina State at home.

I break down the conference tournament odds for this ACC contest and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Louisville vs. NC State today.

NC State vs Louisville best odds

NC State vs Louisville picks and predictions

Even lugging a four-game losing streak, North Carolina State is a bit undervalued heading into the ACC tournament. It’s hard to find a tougher closing slate of games than the coals the Wolfpack walked over to finish ACC play.

North Carolina State took on three of the four top seeds in the conference in eight days, having to play at North Carolina, host Duke, and then visit Pitt – losing leading scorer D.J. Horne 12 minutes into that closing contest.

Horne’s status for Tuesday is still up in the air after suffering what head coach Kevin Keatts called a lower-extremity injury, but he did take part in a Monday shootaround: 

NC State’s DJ Horne in action.

He left Saturday’s game at Pitt early with a “lower extremity” injury, but it moving pretty well on the floor today. pic.twitter.com/6ywBBvbQ1V

— Noah Fleischman (@fleischman_noah) March 11, 2024

While he’s very valuable to NC State’s offense, the Wolfpack got production from junior guard Jayden Taylor in Horne’s absence, with Taylor finishing with 28 points in the loss to the Panthers last weekend.

The losing skid takes some of the shine off NC State, which also finished playing five of its final eight contests on the road (4-4 ATS). 

When it comes to the Louisville Cardinals, there’s no denying just how bad the Cardinals are, regardless of schedule.

Louisville has lost seven straight games and has come up short versus the point spread in each of those outings. The Cardinals have lost by an average of more than 16 points per game in that stretch while making bottom-tier programs like Notre Dame and Boston College look like world-beaters. 

Louisville lost to NC State 89-83 as a 7.5-point home underdog back on January 13, before the wheels came off UL’s season. Now, books have the Wolfpack laying as few as 8.5 points for this neutral-site matchup in D.C.

North Carolina State takes a step back in competition versus UL when compared to recent foes. According to KenPom, five of NC State’s last nine outings have been graded an A with two games others graded a B.  The Cardinals, on the other hand, have played only two A grades and two B grades during their seven-game slog.

Books are bouncing between -8.5 and -9.5 for the Wolfpack, as Horne’s status is still undecided. However, some game models are calling for a 10-point victory from NC State. Select books have jumped to -9.5 and sharper markets are showing the higher end of this spread, indicating early action is on the Wolfpack.

My best bet: North Carolina State -8.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

NC State vs Louisville same-game parlay

NC State -8.5

D.J. Horne Over 15.5 points

Brandon Huntley Hatfield Over 12.5 points

+513 at FanDuel

The Wolfpack get a major step down in competition when compared to their recent sked and face a UL team that’s dead in the water.

Horne is back after an injury scare in the season finale. He dropped 27 points on the Cardinals earlier this season.

Brandon Huntley Hatfield keeps putting up points despite Louisville’s losing ways. He’s topped 13 points or more in seven of his last 10 games and is projected for 14 points against NC State.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

NC State vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis

With Horne’s status up in the air, the Wolfpack opened as 8.5-point neutral-site favorites with a -120 price tag on the chalk. That has ticked up as high as -9.5 with many books dealing NC State -9.

Horne left the regular season finale versus Pittsburgh with a lower-extremity injury and should he not be able to play Tuesday, this spread will shorten. 

The Wolfpack’s recent record isn’t great but a tough stretch run has a lot to do with it. North Carolina State played five of its final eight games on the road and the current four-game losing streak forced the Pack to play the ACC’s top three seeds (two of those on the road) in an eight-day span.

Overall, NC State is 13-17-1 ATS on the season, including a 5-8-1 ATS record away from Raliegh (road/neutral). The Wolfpack covered only once in that four-game slide but went 4-4 ATS in the final eight outings.

Louisville was at least covering spreads to start conference play but that well went dry in the final month of the season. The Cardinals haven’t covered in seven straight games and enter the ACC tournament with a 13-18 ATS mark on the year, going 7-6 ATS away from home.

These ACC foes played just once this year, with NC State taking an 89-83 win at UL but couldn’t cover as a 7.5-point favorite. The final score topped the closing total of 148.5 points, thanks to a stellar shooting game from the Wolfpack (54% from the field and 10 for 20 from 3-point range). The Cardinals knocked down 8 of 15 from deep to put up one of their highest scores of conference play.

The Over/Under for Tuesday’s game opened at 151.5 points. 

North Carolina State was 18-12-1 O/U on the year, but not having Horne in the lineup would be a significant hit to this offense. The Wolfpack have played Over in six of their last eight outings heading into the postseason.

As for the Cardinals, they finished 15-16 Over/Under due to a late-season scoring drought that led to a 2-6 O/U count in the final eight outings. Louisville struggled to put up points down the stretch, averaging 61.5 points per game in the last six showings. 

NC State vs Louisville betting trend to know

Louisville has covered the spread in only 11 of its last 31 games (-7.75 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. Louisville.

NC State vs Louisville game info

NC State vs Louisville key injuries

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