Ohio State vs Iowa Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Buckeyes Clamp Down Inside

Neither the Ohio State Buckeyes nor the Iowa Hawkeyes can rest assured of an NCAA Tournament at-large bid yet. Bracket Matrix considers both to be on the outside looking in as the conference tournament odds unfold.

But that is what makes conference tournaments so delightful. When the two meet in Minneapolis, one will end the night with newfound reason to believe in March Madness odds, while the other will have to cope with its season being effectively over.

It's not an insult to be a middling team in the Big Ten tournament bracket. It is simply the reality for Ohio State and Iowa. What makes this game intriguing is how well the two should match up. But, of course, there is an edge to be found, a chance to fade one of the country’s most prolific offenses, even if that defies your expectations.

Let’s bet on the high-flying Hawkeyes to fly a little lower than usual in our free college basketball picks and predictions as we preview Maryland vs Wisconsin on March 14.

Ohio State vs Iowa best odds

Ohio State vs Iowa picks and predictions

Iowa’s offense is good. Obviously, that is a basketball-specific sentiment, but it is one to emphasize before doubting it. KenPom ranks the Hawkeyes as the 15th-most efficient offense in the country. In conference play, it ranked No. 4 in the Big Ten.

The issue is, that offense lives and dies on the interior. And in the year 2024, that is not a winning strategy. It is like building a football team entirely focused on special teams and defense. You need to score to win games these days and score in bunches.

Consider, Indiana was the only team in the Big Ten to score a greater percentage of its points via 2-pointers than Iowa. Related, the Hoosiers have the No. 11 offense in the Big Ten. Scoring by twos is not good enough in 2024.

The Hawkeyes rate better overall, but their aversion to shooting from beyond the arc — No. 13 in the Big Ten in rate of threess taken, ahead of only Indiana, obviously — dooms them. And insisting on shooting twos will be extra costly tonight.

Ohio State’s greatest defensive strength is against 2-pointers, holding conference opponents to 47.2% inside the arc, third-best in the Big Ten. If you want to take advantage of the Buckeyes’ defense, you need to do it from deep, where they tend to give up open looks.

Iowa simply cannot do that, though. Only one player, Payton Sandfort, averages more than one made three per game. His 2.7 is notable, but with only one true shooting threat, Ohio State will be able to pay enough attention to mitigate his impact.

The Hawkeyes ran up plenty of scores this year and 20 of their 31 games went Over their pregame totals, but it is worth noting that the Buckeyes held them to 79 points in early February. That was a made three short of Iowa’s team total.

The Hawkeyes should fall short of their team total again tonight, even with it lowered to 76.5. Their refusal to shoot from deep will lead to too many fumbled possessions against Ohio State’s excellent interior defense.

My best bet: Iowa team total Under 76.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Ohio State vs Iowa same-game parlay

Iowa team total Under 76.5

Ben Krikke Under 11.5 points

Ohio State moneyline

+278 at DraftKings

If doubting Iowa’s team total is predicated on the Hawkeyes struggling on the interior, then fading the individual player most dependent on scoring from the interior makes just as much sense. Senior forward Ben Krikke takes 9.4 2-point field goals per game, making 55.5% of them.

The former Valparaiso veteran will not have that kind of success tonight. Ohio State’s 2-point defense is too consistent.

It is worth noting, Krikke scored just eight points against the Buckeyes on Feb. 2, going 4-of-9 from the field, 44.4%. He got the shots; they were just tougher shots.

Since firing Chris Holtmann on Valentine’s Day, Ohio State has gone 5-1 outright, the first two of those wins coming as +7.5 and +10 underdogs. Meanwhile, Iowa has stumbled to the finish line of the season, falling from strong at-large positioning in mid-January to now being on the outside looking in, thanks to going 7-7 outright.

Taking the Buckeyes on the moneyline is simply betting on the team playing well of late against the team struggling of late.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ohio State vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis

Ohio State first hit the market as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday afternoon, a number that rose to -2 by dinnertime, though a couple books clung to -1.5.

When these two met to start February, Iowa was a 5.5-point favorite. Considering the 3.5 points that should be assigned to that home-court advantage, tonight’s spread suggests the power rankings have swung four points between these two.

Simply looking at KenPom rankings, the Hawkeyes were the No. 49 team in the country at the time of that meeting, while the Buckeyes were the No. 65. Now, Ohio State is the No. 50, and Iowa is No. 52. In other words, power rankings have certainly swung by a few points.

Tonight’s total opened at 155 before waffling at 154.5. The Buckeyes saw totals north of 150 only four times this season, three of those cashing the Unders, including the early February meeting with the Hawkeyes.

Ohio State vs Iowa betting trend to know

The Buckeyes have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Iowa.

Ohio State vs Iowa game info

Ohio State vs Iowa key injuries

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