Ohio State vs Minnesota Odds, Picks and Predictions: Golden Gophers Keep Covering

At some point, the Minnesota Golden Gophers will stop being an against the spread behemoth.

It looked like that point came in mid-January, when they lost two straight games ATS, to start a four-game straight-up losing streak, but since then, the Gophers have returned to covering the spread every time out on the court, a mind-boggling 22-3 ATS this season.

That point is unlikely to come tonight, not only because the Ohio State Buckeyes are relatively bad, but also because no one is more ripe for a letdown moment this than the Buckeyes are, fresh off an upset of No. 2 Purdue.

Don’t overthink this one. Back the seemingly unstoppable force against the object already tilting toward being moved in our free college basketball picks as we preview Ohio State vs. Minnesota on February 22, with tip set for 8:00 ET.

Ohio State vs Minnesota best odds

Ohio State vs Minnesota picks and predictions

The Minnesota Golden Gophers' ATS success this year defies comprehension. First of all, the Gophers were atrocious a season ago. By no means did they create a standard of exceeding expectations, going 8-21 outright and a pedestrian 12-15-2 ATS.

Secondly, their 22-3 ATS record this year has not even felt like a fluke. The current streak of eight straight covers has come by an average of 5.9 points. Minnesota won three straight games outright in which it was an underdog during this stretch.

Sure, the Gophers got by thanks to the hook against Wisconsin on Jan. 23, as well as against Missouri on Nov. 16, but those are two of just eight ATS wins in which Minnesota covered by a bucket or less.

Flip every single one of those and the Gophers would still be 14-11 ATS. And obviously, flipping every single one of them would be just as unlikely. For that matter, two of those narrow covers came with Minnesota favored by double digits and cruising to the final buzzer.

Simply put, the Gophers are exceeding expectations this year, and somehow, oddsmakers cannot catch up to them.

The same cannot be said of the Ohio State Buckeyes. They've have rattled off three straight ATS wins and are still only 12-14 ATS this season. If Ohio State had won every game it was favored in, Chris Holtmann would probably still be the head coach. Instead, he was fired last week, only for the Buckeyes to then stun Purdue on Sunday.

Bruce Thornton scored 22 points while Jamison Battle added 19 thanks to 3-for-5 shooting from beyond the arc to spark that upset, but the most surprising part was how poorly the Boilermakers shot. Purdue made only 44.5% of its 2-point field goals, a far cry from its usual 53.6%. Those four points would have flipped the game.

That is how close Ohio State came to merely a moral victory, instead of the defining point of this lost season. The Buckeyes should not be trusted because they upset the Boilermakers. Instead, they should be doubted, assuming this peak brings with it a quick valley.

Now going up against the single best ATS team in college basketball, our choice tonight is clear.

My best bet: Minnesota -3.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

Ohio State vs Minnesota same-game parlay

Minnesota -3.5

Over 138.5

Bruce Thornton Over 14.5 points

+486 at FanDuel

Two thoughts drive including an Over play in this same-game parlay. First of all, both these teams skew toward the Over ever so slightly, Minnesota cashing 14 Overs in 25 games this season and Ohio State doing so in 14 of 26.

Secondly, part of the Gophers -3.5 thought is a doubt in the Buckeyes' ability to refocus after a week that saw their head coach get fired and then the biggest upset of their year. If doubting that attention span, then logically, that misstep will show up most defensively.

Adding Bruce Thornton’s points prop Over is partly an attempt at escalating this parlay’s payout, that one addition jumping the odds by 106%. The sportsbook algorithms feel Thornton’s success is counter-intuitive to Minnesota covering the spread, understandably so.

But if any Buckeye is going to succeed tonight, it should be Thornton. He has the ball in his hands the most, he ends the most possession with shots and he gets to the line more often than anyone else on the roster. 

As this season has slipped further and further away from Ohio State, Thornton has taken on more of the load, averaging 21.3 points in his last three games while taking 18.67 shots per game. Up until this surge, Thornton was attempting just 12 shots per game. He's is shouldering more of a workload, something that makes scoring 15 points a rather manageable feat.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ohio State vs Minnesota spread and Over/Under analysis

The market opened with Minnesota favored by 3.5 points on Wednesday afternoon, a number that has not moved aside from a brief overnight foray to -4.

If worrying about betting on the Gophers because at some point sportsbooks should catch up to their ATS success, then understand that advanced numbers set this game at -3. The adjustment has been a hook thus far. It seems most folks want to chalk this 22-3 ATS season up to variance more than a team ahead of the curve.

The total opened at 139.5 before ticking down to 138 or 138.5 on Thursday morning, just as the above same-game parlay was being crafted.

Ohio State vs Minnesota betting trend to know

Minnesota is 11-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Minnesota.

Ohio State vs Minnesota game info

Ohio State vs Minnesota key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic