The Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Fighting Illini wrap up their regular season with a clash at State Farm Center tonight.
Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer is coming off a 23-point performance, and my Purdue vs. Illinois predictions are betting on his hot shooting to continue.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on Friday, March 7.
Purdue vs Illinois prediction
My best bet
Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 threes (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Purdue Boilermakers are eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and are coming off a 100-point explosion against Rutgers.
While they've been significantly less efficient as a team on the road, guard Fletcher Loyer is getting the job done regardless of where he plays. The junior shooting guard shoots a sizzling 52.2% from deep at home, and his 40.4 3PT% in road games is impressive as well.
Although the Illinois Fighting Illini are coming off back-to-back strong defensive outings, they have been leaking buckets over the last couple of months. Before holding Iowa to 61 points in their last contest at State Farm Center, the Illini had surrendered 74+ points in each of their previous six home games, allowing 80.5 ppg over that span.
The Illini have been excellent at defending inside, ranking first in the Big Ten in opponent 2-point percentage (46.8%) during conference play. However, they rank 11th out of 18 teams in opponent 3-point percentage (34.6%) during league play.
Illinois also sits outside the Top 200 in defensive Open 3 Rate per ShotQualityBets, and its fast pace (18th in adjusted tempo) leads to more offensive possessions for opponents.
Loyer has knocked down more than 1.5 threes in eight consecutive games, and his confidence should be soaring after going 7-for-12 from long range against Rutgers. With the Illini preventing good looks inside the arc, look for Loyer to attack from the perimeter.
Purdue vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 threes
Braden Smith Over 6.5 assists
Illinois moneyline
Purdue's offense has seen its numbers significantly decline on the road. That said, oddsmakers know that by this time in the season, and that's baked into the player props. Considering that Illinois plays at a speedy tempo and has struggled on defense at times, books might be weighing that too much.
Braden Smith ranks second in Div I with 8.7 assists per game. He's dropped at least seven assists in 15 of his last 18 games and is averaging 8.9 apg over that span.
The Illini had an ugly three-game stretch in February where they got clobbered by Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Duke. However, they've gotten back on track by demolishing Iowa and Michigan by 20 points in consecutive games.
Illinois's lineup was ravaged by illness in February, which affected its play. Now that the roster is healthy, they should be able to win at home against a Purdue side that's dropped its last three games on the road. The Boilermakers have really struggled to defend inside, ranking last in the conference in 2-point defense (58.5%).
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Purdue vs Illinois odds
Purdue vs Illinois live odds
Purdue vs Illinois opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +3.5 | Illinois -3.5
- Moneyline: Purdue +150 | Illinois -180
- Over/Under: Over 160 | Under 160
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Purdue vs Illinois betting trend to know
The Over is 14-6 in Illinois's last 20 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Illinois.
How to watch Purdue vs Illinois
| Location | State Farm Center, Champaign, IL |
| Date | Friday, 3-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Purdue vs Illinois key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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