The Big East-Big 12 Battle brings a Tuesday night matchup between the Seton Hall Pirates and undefeated Baylor Bears.
This marks the Pirates’ first true road game of the year and it’ll be a tough one against a Top 10 opponent looking for its 400th all-time win at the Ferrell Center.
Taking a peek at college basketball odds, the Bears are -11 while the total is set at 150.5.
Will this spot prove to be too much for the road underdog? Find out in my free college basketball picks for Seton Hall vs. Baylor on Tuesday, December 5.
Seton Hall vs Baylor best odds
Seton Hall vs Baylor picks and predictions
Seton Hall sits at 5-2 this season, picking up five victories over mid-major opponents and two losses in as many tries against major-conference opponents (USC, Iowa). Shaheen Holloway is in his second year with the program and hopes to improve upon last year’s 17-16 finish.
The Pirates come into this matchup 63rd overall in KenPom, ranking 68th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency. This will be their first true road game of the season and their first trip to Texas since the 2002-03 season.
Meanwhile, Baylor is off to a perfect 8-0 start with the caveat the schedule has been manageable thus far. The competition is about to heat up, however, as Michigan State and Duke await following this meeting with the Hall. This isn’t a look-ahead spot as 11 days separate Tuesday’s game from the meeting with Michigan State, so this should be an inspired effort from the Bears.
KenPom is a fan of their work as they check in at seventh overall, ranking first in adjusted offensive efficiency and 46th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
It’s clear to see where this team’s bread is buttered and that’s on the offensive end, where five players average double figures and none more than freshman Ja’Kobe Walter at 14.9 points per game. They’ve been scorching hot from the field, hitting 52.1% of their field goal attempts (eighth nationally) while canning 3-pointers at a national best rate (42.9%).
There’s a chance for Baylor to make history as a win on Tuesday would mark the school’s 400th win at the Ferrell Center.
Scott Drew’s emphasis for this campaign is to provide a tougher test defensively after that proved to be the Achilles heel for last year’s Bears. They haven’t been tested much this season, but their analytical profile suits them well in this matchup.
The Hall looks to get downhill and attack the basket — a whopping 53.3% of its shot attempts come at the rim, which is the third-highest rate nationally. Drew’s defensive game plan involves walling off the rim, however, as Baylor allows the ninth-lowest percentage of shots at the basket (26.5%).
On the other end, the Bears are an elite offensive unit and that doesn’t change for this matchup. The Pirates faced one team with tremendous guard play already and it didn’t go well — USC’s Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier combined for 37 points in a Trojans win. Holloway’s squad also surrendered 36 combined points to Iowa’s Payton Sandfort and Tony Perkins.
The Hall hasn’t fared well when stepping up in competition so far this season and now has to head to a raucous environment in Waco for its first true road game of the season. Baylor should pick up its 400th victory at the Farrell Center in style and I’ll bet on the Bears covering the spread.
My best bet: Baylor -11 (-110 at bet365)
Seton Hall vs Baylor same-game parlay
Baylor -11.5
Seton Hall team total Under 69.5
The Pirates have yet to play a true road game this season and asking them to scorch the nets in a difficult environment in Waco is too much.
Holloway hasn’t been shy about voicing his displeasure with the scheduling decision that season him matched up with one of the Big 12’s finest teams instead of an opponent of similar caliber. “Whoever put the schedule together should be fired . . . You know what I mean? Man, you’d think we were Duke or Kansas, right? The schedule is murder.”
Holloway stated he’s looking for his team to control the tempo to avoid getting into a track meet with Baylor. Combine that style of play with a Baylor defense that limits what the Pirates do best (attacking the rim) and I’m forecasting a limited offensive performance on Tuesday night.
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Seton Hall vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis
Baylor has been pretty good against the spread this season (5-1-1 ATS) while Seton Hall is 3-4 ATS. The Bears have been profitable at home (4-1 ATS) while the Pirates have yet to play a road game, so there isn’t any recent data to evaluate.
The Bears project as the better team on both ends of the court and have proven to be a very difficult out at home, so I simply think this spot is too much for a talented Seton Hall team.
I lean toward the Under if playing the total of 150.5. Holloway stated he wants Seton Hall to slow the tempo down and that makes sense for this difficult matchup on the road. Baylor’s offense is elite but has yet to be tested.
Seton Hall vs Baylor betting trend to know
Baylor is 13-3 against the Big East under Scott Drew. Find more college basketball betting trends for Seton Hall vs. Baylor.
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Seton Hall vs Baylor game info
| Location: | Ferrell Center, Waco, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 5, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Seton Hall vs Baylor key injuries
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