The Stanford Cardinal face off against the Washington Huskies in Pac-12 basketball action tonight. These teams have almost identical overall records and while the Cardinal have the better mark in conference play, the Huskies are 31 spots higher in the NET rankings.
The Huskies are 4-point home favorites while the Over/Under of 159 is the highest on the college basketball odds board tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Stanford vs. Washington on February 15.
Stanford vs Washington best odds
Stanford vs Washington picks and predictions
The Stanford Cardinal are coming off a 99-point explosion against slumping USC and they also beat the Washington Huskies 90-80 when these teams previously clashed at Maples Pavilion last month. However, there's reason to think they won't have the same success on the road at Alaska Airlines Arena today.
Defense travels is an old adage that often holds in college basketball and Stanford is just 112th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. To be fair, some offensive abilities translate well away from home, like limiting turnovers, being active on the offensive glass, and attacking the rim. Unfortunately for Cardinal fans, this Stanford offense is terrible in all of those areas.
Stanford is 277th in the country in turnover rate and 330th in offensive rebounding rate while ranking 304th in attacking the rim frequency per ShotQuality Bets. What this Stanford offense does well is space the floor and shoot the lights out, ranking 18th in the country in effective field goal percentage (55.8%) and seventh in 3-point percentage (39.4%).
However, shooting (especially from long range) tends to fall off in hostile territory and those numbers plummet to 50.4 EFG% and 34.1 3PT% for Stanford on the road. A big reason why the Cardinal got the win in the previous meeting was that they went 13-for-24 from deep (54%) and while the Huskies are a poor defensive team, some regression seems inevitable.
If their outside shots aren't dropping, this high-variance Cardinal offense won't be able to keep up with an efficient Washington attack. The Huskies are 42nd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and they do an excellent job of running the floor (18th in transition frequency).
They also shoot 47.3% from the field with that number bumping up to 51.5% at home. They shouldn't have much problem putting up points on a Cardinal team that ranks just 181st in opponent field goal percentage (44.2%). Back the Huskies to even the season series with a win and cover.
My best bet: Washington -4 (-110 at bet365)
Stanford vs Washington same-game parlay
Washington -4.5
Maxime Raynaud Over 15.5 points
Sahvir Wheeler Over 5.5 assists
Stanford center Maxime Raynaud leads the Cardinal with 15.3 ppg on 57.3% shooting. Raynaud has been red-hot, dropping at least 20 points in three consecutive games, which is crucial since freshman Kanaan Carlyle has been in a slump. The versatile big man can score from every level and he's a tough matchup for any team.
When these teams previously clashed, Washington point guard Sahvir Wheeler had just three assists. However, he took a whopping 17 field-goal attempts, which is unusual for the pass-first guard.
Wheeler leads the conference with 6.0 assists per game and he's 49th all-time in career assists (793) in NCAA history. The senior has dropped seven-plus dimes in three of his last four games and he should go Over his assists total in what is expected to be a high-scoring contest.
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Stanford vs Washington spread and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Huskies at -4 or -4.5 and the O/U at 160.5. While the spread hasn't seen any movement, money has come in on the Under, slimming the total to as low as 158.5.
In their last contest, the Huskies beat Oregon State 67-55 to cover as 4.5-point road favorites. Despite that victory, they are 3-5 straight up and 4-4 against the spread in their last eight games and they need to finish the season strong if they want to make the NCAA Tournament since they are 69th in the NET rankings.
The Cardinal are fresh off a 99-68 beatdown of a USC Trojans team that seems to have given up on its season. The Cardinal have had trouble stringing together wins this season and they are 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
While they had an impressive 100-82 win at home against No. 5 Arizona on New Year's Eve, Washington faced a tougher non-conference schedule. That's a big reason why the Huskies have a better KenPom rating (58th compared to 84th) despite similar stats.
Stanford vs Washington betting trend to know
The home team is 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings between these conference foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Stanford vs. Washington.
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Stanford vs Washington game info
| Location: | Alaska Airlines Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Thursday, February 15, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Stanford vs Washington key injuries
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