Two teams that lost their first games in Las Vegas will look to bounce back tonight as the Texas A&M Aggies take on the Creighton Bluejays in the Players Era Festival at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
While both teams sit in the Top 25, the Aggies have been the far better team, and I take them to cover in my Texas A&M vs. Creighton predictions.
Keep reading below to see my free college basketball picks for Wednesday, November 27.
Texas A&M vs Creighton prediction
My best bet
Texas A&M -3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Both teams come into this matchup with identical 4-2 records, but a deeper look at the analytics shows a clear gap.
The Texas A&M Aggies have been favored in every game they’ve played this season, and their 10-point loss to the Oregon Ducks was their worst performance of the season to this point. However, they also have a win over the Ohio State Buckeyes and are holding opponents to just 64.7 points per game.
Creighton, on the other hand, got off to a 4-0 start against overmatched opponents before dropping games in the last week to Nebraska and San Diego State. While the Bluejays were favored in both, they would go on to lose each by double digits.
The way Creighton lost to San Diego State on Tuesday was particularly concerning. The Bluejays were never in the game, suffering without senior guard Steven Ashworth, who was averaging 16 points and 6.4 assists per game before going down with an injury against Nebraska. Ashworth didn’t play on Tuesday and doesn’t appear likely to be in the lineup tonight, either.
Having one less star on the court will make things even tougher on Creighton, especially as Texas A&M’s best two scorers — Zhuric Phelps (16.8 ppg) and Wade Taylor IV (14.2 ppg) — both like to operate around the perimeter.
The Aggies are also one of the most aggressive rebounding teams in the country, and that’s likely to give Creighton problems.
Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation in rebounding percentage at 58.3%, and while the Bluejays are solid in that regard too (55.2%), they aren’t at the same level.
I expect the Aggies to continue getting an outsized number of offensive rebounds as they have against opponents in virtually every game over the past two seasons.
Creighton does have a productive center who can somewhat mitigate this in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But he hasn’t been giving the Bluejays much as of late, averaging just 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds over his last four games. The fact his numbers have come down against better competition is concerning, and he can’t keep the Aggies off the boards alone.
If Creighton had a healthy Ashworth tonight, I still might like the Aggies to cover. Without him, I think Texas A&M is the clear pick to get a comfortable win in Las Vegas.
Texas A&M vs Creighton same-game parlay
Texas A&M -3.5
Under 143.5
Zhuric Phelps 15+ points
For my same-game parlay, I’m leaning in on the fact both teams play solid defense and at a relatively slow pace. That has me taking the Under alongside the Aggies to cover the spread. Both teams have generally been playing to the Under this season, and that trend should continue tonight.
I’ll also take Texas A&M senior guard Zhuric Phelps to score at least 15 points in this game. Phelps is coming off a 20-point performance against Oregon and has hit that 15-point total in four of his five games so far this season.
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Texas A&M vs Creighton odds
Texas A&M vs Creighton live odds
Texas A&M vs Creighton opening odds
- Spread: Texas A&M -3.5 (-110) | Creighton +3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas A&M -170 | Creighton +145
- Over/Under: Over 143.5 (-110) | Under 143.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Texas A&M vs Creighton betting trend to know
Creighton is 0-2 straight up and ATS in its last two games, losing both games by at least 11 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas A&M vs. Creighton.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Creighton
| Location: | MGM Grand Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MAX |
Texas A&M vs Creighton key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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