Texas Tech vs Baylor Odds, Picks and Predictions: Dennis Decimates Texas Tech Defense From Deep

The No. 23 Texas Tech Red Raiders travel to Waco tonight hungry for a victory after a pair of tough losses that have greatly harmed their chances at a Big 12 regular season title.

The No. 13 Baylor Bears have won two straight, including an emotional, come-from-behind victory over Iowa State which kept the Bears in contention for a Big 12 regular season conference championship. 

Who will win Tuesday’s important Big 12 matchup? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Texas Tech vs. Baylor on Tuesday, February 6. 

Texas Tech vs Baylor best odds

Texas Tech vs Baylor picks and predictions

Baylor Bears senior guard RayJ Dennis is coming off a big shooting night from downtown against Iowa State, and he has an even better matchup tonight against the worst 3-point shooting defense in the Big 12, according to KenPom.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders allow opponents to shoot 39.5% from downtown. TCU torched them for 55% in their last road game, and Texas Tech allowed 35% from beyond the arc in their home loss to Cincinnati. 

The entire Baylor team has a great shooting matchup tonight. The Bears lead the nation in 3-point shooting percentage (41%), which spikes to 44.1% in their shiny new Foster Pavilion barn. Still, Dennis should be the main beneficiary of that leaky and sometimes non-existent Texas Tech 3-point shooting defense.

Dennis is the straw that stirs the Bears' offensive drink. He’s their top playmaker with the ninth-most dimes per game nationally and second on the team with 13.4 ppg. He’s also knocking down a career-best 39.1% from behind the 3-point line, which jumps to 45% at home. 

Texas Tech is looking to end a two-game losing streak tonight, and the Red Raiders will likely come out firing offensively. They play slowly and are tidy with the ball. Because of this, Baylor may not enjoy the same number of points from turnovers (16.7) they usually score per game. That means the Bears will be forced to score more buckets in their half-court set, and that’s where Dennis and his 3.1 triple attempts per game come into play.

RayJ fires away at home and knocks down 45% of his 3.1 triple attempts. Dennis will typically look to be a playmaker in the half-game set, but he also enjoys playing on a team with a 1:4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Usually, one of his teammates returns the favor, and that’s when Dennis lets it fly from downtown.

Finally, this is a game both teams would love to win. Baylor is coming off an emotional home upset over Iowa State and may come out a bit flat. Texas Tech plays horrific 3-point defense, and we should expect Dennis to lift his team offensively by looking to exploit that bad Red Raiders 3-point shooting defense and clear his 1.5 made 3s prop at DraftKings.

My best bet: RayJ Dennis Over 1.5 made 3s (+105 at DraftKings)

Texas Tech vs Baylor same-game parlay

RayJ Dennis Over 1.5 made 3s

RayJ Dennis Over 13.5 points

Pop Isaacs Over 25.5 points + rebounds + assists

+335 at DraftKings

This three-leg same-game parlay, which includes my best bet, pays $335 for a $100 stake and mostly revolves around Dennis having a big night.

I look for Baylor to come out flat offensively tonight. They are coming off a strange home win over the Cyclones, and Dennis transferred from Toledo to Baylor to score in big games like tonight’s. He’s a scorer, averages 14.2 points per game at home, and has cleared his points scored number in three of his last five.

Finally, Red Raiders guard Pop Isaacs is a ballplayer. He’s scoring 18.3 ppg with three caroms and five dimes per game away from Lubbock. He’s covered this number in two of his last five, but he has a good matchup and the kid from Las Vegas lives for big moments like this.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas Tech vs Baylor spread and Over/Under analysis

We have a pair of 16-win programs competing tonight, and both are still in the hunt for a Big 12 regular season championship. 

It’s understandable for Texas Tech to be the underdog; they are 2-3 overall and 2-3-0 ATS as the away team, but being a +6-point underdog might be too steep. The Red Raiders are 2-2-0 ATS over their previous four conference away games and will be fighting hard tonight after being upset at home by Cincinnati.

Baylor hasn’t covered the spread in any of their last three conference home games, but they are 7-4-0 ATS at home. They’ve covered against Texas Tech in each of their last two and four of their last six, but covering -6 might be difficult.

These programs have historically ended their games Over the total. The Over is 7-3-0 in their last 10 meetings, and tilts ending Over the total has been the theme for both groups this season. The Over is 8-2-0 in the last 10 Red Raiders matchups, and the Bears Over/Under record is 11-9 overall but 5-6-0 at home. The best number for the Over is 144.5, while Under bettors can find Under 145.5 at a few U.S. books.

I have a lean, and I like Texas Tech tonight. The Red Raiders are a +200 moneyline underdog on many bookies boards and have a pair of away upsets under their belts. After losing to Cincy at home, they'll be hungry and could catch Baylor flat after the Bears emotional come-from-behind victory over Iowa State. Texas Tech has the experience and is the better team from the charity stripe that could pull off an upset if they can only keep Baylor from turning their lights out from downtown. 

Texas Tech vs Baylor betting trend to know

Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 18 of its last 28 games (+9.15 Units / 5% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Baylor.

Texas Tech vs Baylor game info

Texas Tech vs Baylor key injuries

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