The Purdue Boilermakers hope to return to winning ways tonight when they host the Toledo Rockets in West Lafayette.
Find out why the Rockets might be in for another long day in my Toledo vs Houston predictions and college basketball picks for December 29!
Toledo vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Purdue -21.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Among players who average at least 20 minutes per game, the Toledo Rockets don’t have a player on their roster standing taller than 6-foot-7.
It’s a key reason the Rockets rank 311th in offensive rebound rate and 251st in defensive rebound rate and struggle to defend inside the arc.
It’s also a key reason why I expect the Purdue Boilermakers to dominate this matchup and roll to an easy win. The Boilermakers have suffered four defeats this season, and all came to teams that got physical with them and pressured them into mistakes. As a result, they had a turnover rate north of 22% in three of those losses.
The Rockets rank north of 250th in turnover rate on defense, and Purdue’s size and strength advantage will make it easier for them to move the ball. Once they get it inside, the Boilermakers should feast behind the likes of 6-foot-9 Trey Kaufman-Renn and his 29% usage rate.
Purdue ranks 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 34th in EFG%. It's also making 3-point shots at the 16th-best clip in the nation, which will hurt the Rockets if they collapse inside. And if they don’t, then the likes of Kaufman-Renn will do damage against a defense ranked 333rd in FG% inside the arc.
And while recent results might make you leery of laying so many points, keep in mind the defenses that Purdue has faced. The Boilermakers have faced three straight Top 20 KenPom teams, with all three opponents ranking in the Top 11 in his defensive metrics.
The Rockets held Houston to just 4 of 24 from beyond the arc in their last game, and they lost by 29 points.
Purdue’s superior outside shooting and physical advantage will allow this team to bounce back and inject some positivity into the squad. The Boilermakers roll easily against one of the worst defending and rebounding teams in the nation.
Toledo vs Purdue same-game parlay
Purdue -21.5
Trey Kaufman-Renn 20+ points
Braden Smith Over 13.5 points
Braden Smith leads college basketball in assist rate but had just 12 in total against Auburn and Texas A&M as they bullied him relentlessly. And while Toledo’s not a great defensive team, it does rank 45th nationally in assists per FG made.
That means Smith is likely going to finish a few more of his drives where he’d normally dish it off. And in Purdue’s wins this year, he’s averaging four more points than in losses. He’s also averaging better than 14 points per game at home. I like him to reach that floor here.
He’s not the only one who is going to punish this Toledo defense. Kaufman-Renn has had two subpar games in a row compared to his usual standards, and he’s primed for a bounce-back game against a team that will struggle to defend him.
The forward is shooting 72.5% from attempts near the rim, and a solid offensive rebound rate means he’s likely to get a few extra opportunities against the smaller Toledo line. Toss in the fact that backup big Will Berg is going to miss the game, and there will be more minutes to go around. He’ll eclipse 20 here for the fifth time this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Toledo vs Purdue odds
Toledo vs Purdue live odds
Toledo vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: Toledo +21 (-110) | Purdue -21 (-110)
- Moneyline: Toledo +1600 | Purdue -5000
- Over/Under: Over 155 (-110) | Under 155 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Toledo vs Purdue betting trend to know
Purdue has covered the 1H spread in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Toledo vs. Purdue.
How to watch Toledo vs Purdue
| Location: | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
Toledo vs Purdue key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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