We round off 2024 with a nice slate of college basketball games, one of which is this afternoon's Seton Hall vs. Xavier clash.
Xavier's bumpy start to the season has seriously jeopardized its NCAA Tournament chances. Playing Seton Hall is never fun because of the grinder they put you in, but luckily for the Musketeers, the Pirates are riding a losing streak.
I like Xavier to take care of the job on defense today, as I explain in my Seton Hall vs. Xavier predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, December 31.
Seton Hall vs Xavier prediction
My best bet
Seton Hall team total under 61.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
One of the best ways to predict 3-point regression is by observing a team's shooting from 2-point range, and the Seton Hall Pirates' shooting from 2-point range is not a particularly good omen. I'm fading them offensively and making the team total Under 61.5 my best bet.
Seton Hall isn't a good shooting team, but there is reason to suggest that it even worsens soon. The Pirates saw some of that shooting regression in a 1-point loss to Georgetown, where it went 3-for-21 from deep.
The Pirates rank in the 320s in 2-point shooting, but that's not the most troubling part. Based on the shot quality, Seton Hall ranks in the 240s in adjusted offensive quality. This isn't some lousy-luck shooting run; quite frankly, this is a team with poor shooters running poor offense. Now it gets a low-possession game on the road.
The Xavier Musketeers should also do a good job of getting Seton Hall out of the things it likes to run the most.
As you'd expect, the Pirates don't run any set efficiently in the halfcourt, but the offense's backbone is mostly isolation sets, resulting in a jumper or a rim run. Xavier's on-ball pressure and reduction of paint touches have done a terrific job defensively at the rim, holding opponents to nearly half a point per possession on shots that end at the rim.
Beyond that, Seton Hall relies on gang offensive rebounding and kickouts for secondary scoring to get the bulk of its points. The only problem? Xavier is elite on the glass, ranking 17th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage.
There's not much to suggest offensive success for Seton Hall here.
Seton Hall vs Xavier same-game parlay
Seton Hall team total under 61.5
Dailyn Swain Over 4.5 rebounds
You're giving me fewer than six rebounds here for a guy that will see a massive role increase in the absence of Zach Freemantle? Ok. I'll take it.
It was a good bet in the first game with a usage increase as Dailyn Swain pulled down 10 boards. This is reasonably correlated, too.
I don't see an easy path for either team to score, and there will be many chances to collect rebounds. This number has not fully captured Swain's impact with Freemantle hurt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Seton Hall vs Xavier odds
Seton Hall vs Xavier live odds
Seton Hall vs Xavier opening odds
- Spread: Seton Hall +9.5 | Xavier -9.5
- Moneyline: Seton Hall +350 | Xavier -450
- Over/Under: Over 132.5 | Under 132.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Seton Hall vs Xavier betting trend to know
Seton Hall has hit the 1H moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+5.70 Units / 5% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Seton Hall vs. Xavier.
How to watch Seton Hall vs Xavier
| Location: | Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-31-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
Seton Hall vs Xavier key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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