Texas vs Arizona State Predictions, Picks, Odds for the Peach Bowl

The Arizona State Sun Devils are the biggest underdogs in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, getting 12.5 points in today's Peach Bowl vs. the Texas Longhorns.

But that shouldn’t bother a Sun Devils team that has been overlooked all season long. My Texas vs. Arizona State predictions look at how the Sun Devils can keep this one close, and even if they can pull off the unthinkable upset.

Here are my college football picks for the Peach Bowl, which kicks off at Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium at 1:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Texas vs Arizona State predictions and best bet

• Spread pick: Arizona State +12.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Moneyline pick: Texas (-500 at BetMGM)
• Over/Under pick: Under 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
• Best bet: Under 26.5 1H (-110 at BetMGM)

Texas vs Arizona State spread prediction

The Sun Devils are the biggest underdogs of this quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff, hitting the board as 13.5-point pups against the Longhorns in the Peach Bowl and that line crept up to an even 14 early on.

But since then bettors have shown some faith in the Sun Devils, with the spread dropping down as low as 12 at some sportsbooks.

And what’s not to like about getting all those points with this scrappy Arizona State team? The Sun Devils have been one of the best bets in the country all season long at 11-2 ATS. They lean heavily on Cam Skattebo and the running game, they don’t turnover the ball and the defense is improving.

Texas is talented and this large spread is valid, but inconsistencies have plagued the offense and is part of the reason they have just covered four of their last 10 spreads.

Texas vs Arizona State moneyline prediction

I love the fact that Arizona State has been overlooked all season long, and I believe they have the ability to keep this one close. But this spread is the way it is for a reason.

Texas is the much more talented group and if the Longhorns can get the run game going as it did against Clemson in the first round, the offense is going to be hard to stop and they should punch their ticket to the CFP semifinals.

Texas vs Arizona State Over/Under prediction

The total hit the board at an even 52 and has come down slightly to sit at 51.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. I love the first half-Under in this matchup, and would lean toward the Under on the full game total as well.

Expect both teams to run the football in this matchup, against run defenses that both all less than four yards per carry. Texas has also been a sneaky good Under bet, going 8-1-1 O/U in its last 10 games.

My best bet
Under 26.5 1H (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

Many predicted that the Arizona State Sun Devils would finish dead-last in the Big 12 this season. While Kenny Dillingham’s team looked much better than those early predictions right away, a shot at the conference title seemed a little far-fetched as recently as the middle of October with the Sun Devils already having two Big 12 losses.

But then Arizona State went on a run, winning five straight games to close the regular season, including victories over Kansas State and BYU. The Sun Devils then crushed Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, winning 45-19.

So, how did the Sun Devils get here? The answer is a balanced offense led by running back Cam Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt.

Skattebo has been a load to take down, rushing for 1,568 yards at a clip of 6.0 yards per carry and scoring 19 touchdowns. But it’s the development of Leavitt that makes this offense hard to stop.

Leavitt doesn’t throw it as much as some others, but ended the season with 2,663 yards with 24 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He does enough to make you respect his arm and doesn’t allow you to just sell out to stop Skattebo.

The low interception numbers are also key. The Sun Devils take very good care of the football. In fact, they rank third in the country in giveaways per game. And they’ll have to take care of the football against the Texas Longhorns.

While some were complaining about the resumes of some of the teams in the College Football Playoff, many overlooked the fact that Texas was missing a signature win of their own, and it didn’t help that Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns' offense was stumbling a bit in their biggest games.

So, Steve Sarkisian got back to running the football in their 38-24 win over Clemson in their first round CFP matchup. 

Texas ran the ball a stunning 48 times against the Tigers for a total of 292 yards. It was a big turnaround considering the Longhorns rushed a combined 60 yards on 55 carries in two losses to Georgia this season.

So, Texas is most successful when it is running the football, but Arizona State isn’t too bad at stopping the run, ranking 16th in the nation in EPA per rush and 40th in success rate vs. the rush. 

And let’s get back to the Sun Devils offense. Dillingham knows his offense will have to be patient and take their shots when they present themselves and not turn over the ball. That said, you can run on the Longhorns a bit, who rank 58th in success rate vs  the rush. 

I expect the Arizona State to lean on Skattebo as it has all season, in hopes it will open something up for Leavitt. 

Deliberate game plans early, and running the football against solid defenses. That sounds like a first-half Under to me.

Texas vs Arizona State same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 26.5 1H

Sam Leavitt 2+ passing TDs

Tre Wisner 90+ rushing yards

+900 at BetMGM

The Texas pass defense is very good. But I believe that Cam Skattebo will be enough of a problem that it will set up the play-action for Sam Leavitt in this matchup, allowing him to toss a couple of touchdown passes in this matchup.

Leavitt has been on fire since the start of November, completing 67.1% of his passes while throwing 16 touchdowns compared to just one pick over six games. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes five times over that stretch.

We just saw Cade Klubnik throw for 336 yards and three scores against the Longhorns in the first round. While I don’t expect the same yardage numbers, Leavitt will have the opportunity to hit some scoring strikes for the Sun Devils.

I also expect Texas to stick to its strategy of running the football and that means more work for Tre Wisner. The sophomore has taken over the Longhorns backfield, carrying the ball 93 times for 505 yards (5.4 yards per carry) over the last four games.

The Big 12’s better backs have put up some numbers against Arizona State. Tajh Brooks, Corey Kiner, RJ Harvey and DJ Giddens all topped 100 yards vs the Sun Devils. Give me Wisner to hit 90+ which he’s done in three of his last four games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Texas vs Arizona State odds

Texas vs Arizona State live odds

Texas vs Arizona State opening odds

• Texas vs. Arizona State spread: Arizona State +13.5
• Texas vs. Arizona State moneyline: Texas -550, Arizona State +400
• Texas vs. Arizona State Over/Under: 52

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Texas vs Arizona State spread and Over/Under analysis

• Arizona State opened the Peach Bowl as 13.5-point pups against the Texas Longhorns in the Peach Bowl and that line crept up to an even 14 early on. But since then action has come back on the Sun Devils moving the spread to 12.5.
• Arizona State has been one of the best bets in college football this season at 11-2 ATS while Texas is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
• The total hit the board at an even 52 and has yet to see much action to this point, ticking down to 51.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
• My best bet is the first-half Under and I would lean toward the full-game Under as well. Both teams will try to establish the run and have solid defenses. Texas has also been a sneaky Under bet, going 8-1-1 O/U in its last 10 games.
• Covers Consensus says 54% of spread picks are on ASU, while 69% like the Over.

Texas vs Arizona State betting trend to know

Arizona State has covered in 11 of its last 13 games for +8.80 Units and a 62% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Arizona State.

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