Utah vs Saint Mary's Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mahaney Leads the Charge for Gaels

Randy Bennett’s Saint Mary’s Gaels look to shake off their poor early-season performance with a home game against the Utah Utes. 

Looking at college basketball odds, the Gaels are a 5.5-point home favorite while the total is set at 133.5. 

College basketball player props are becoming more widely available in the market than ever before, and that’s good news for this matchup as Saint Mary’s guard Aidan Mahaney has been given a points-scored prop of 13.5 that I believe contains a fair amount of value. 

Find out why in my college basketball picks for Utah vs. Saint Mary’s on November 27. 

Utah vs Saint Mary's best odds

Utah vs Saint Mary's picks and predictions

Craig Smith’s Utah Utes are 3-2, winning each of their first three games against Eastern Washington, UC Riverside, and Wake Forest before dropping to both Houston and St. John’s.

Branden Carlson is tops on the team with 19.4 points per game, but three others also average double figures — Gabe Madsen (14.2 ppg), Cole Bajema (11 ppg), and Rollie Worster (10.2 ppg). 

Meanwhile, the Saint Mary’s Gaels are off to a 3-3 start with sophomore guard Aidan Mahaney leading the offense with 13.8 ppg. I’m going to take a closer look at Mahaney’s props for Monday’s best bet.

He’s listed with a point total prop of 13.5 for this matchup, which aligns with his season average. That being said, I like his Over as he should continue to improve after a slow start to the season. 

Mahaney looked back to his normal self with a 17-point outing against Davidson last time out. The volume is certainly there (13.3 field goal attempts per game) but his efficiency isn't (38.8% FG rate). Considering he shot 42.8% from the field as a true freshman last year, I’d expect more shots to start falling for the talented young guard. 

He faces off with a Utah defense that just surrendered 91 points to St. John’s, so this should be a favorable enough matchup. We know Mahaney is going to have the ball in his hands a lot as the focal point of the offense, which is comforting news as his usage rate should be high. 

Mahaney was a man possessed in Moraga last year, scoring more than 13.5 points in 10 of his final 11 home games. If we account for this year, he’s scored at least 14 points in 13 of his last 15 home games. This line is artificially deflated after he had a few poor shooting performances on a neutral court against some pretty good teams. I’ll gladly buy the Over. 

My best bet: Aidan Mahaney Over 13.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Utah vs Saint Mary's same-game parlay

Aidan Mahaney Over 13.5 points

Sanint Mary's -45.

+210 at DraftKings

I’ll go ahead and add Saint Mary’s against the spread in what I believe to be a correlated play. If Mahaney is having himself a good game, then it’s more likely his team will cover this short spread. 

The Gaels are usually a different team in Moraga than outside of it, so I’m not overly concerned with the losses on a neutral court to begin the year. They looked more like themselves in an 89-55 shellacking of Davidson on Friday and there may be a bit of rust for Utah after having a week off. 

This is a very experienced and well-coached Saint Mary’s team, so this is likely the time to buy low if the Gaels are to turn it on this season. Bennett has earned enough respect that I trust him to have his team ready here at home. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Utah vs Saint Mary's spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been some love for Saint Mary’s in the market as the spread has moved from -3.5 at open to -5.5 at current. Some locations are even beginning to show -6, so it’s possible this line isn’t done moving. 

There’s some fluctuation in the total as it ranges from 132.5 to 134.5 depending on this location. If you’re going off how each team has played thus far, it’s hard not to like Utah plus the points. The Utes check in at 45th in KenPom, above Saint Mary’s at 59th overall. 

That being said, there are other factors at play. Moraga is a difficult place to play and this is Utah’s only non-conference road game of the entire season. Bennett is also one of the best coaches in America, and even though Utah is playing with a week of rest, will that result in some rust? 

As for the total, it’s hard not to like the Under. Saint Mary’s ranks 346th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metrics and will look to slow this game down and rely on its strong defense at home. Utah starts a pair of seven-footers and has enough size to counteract the Gaels’ strong offensive-rebounding game, so possessions could be at a premium. 

Utah vs Saint Mary's betting trend to know

Mahaney has gone Over 13.5 points scored in 13 of his last 15 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Utah vs. Saint Mary's.

Utah vs Saint Mary's game info

Utah vs Saint Mary's key injuries

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