What a ride. The Alabama Crimson Tide’s win over the Georgia Bulldogs had it all.
However, is the new No. 1 team in the country set up for a big letdown when they visit a much-improved Vanderbilt Commodores squad today?
My Alabama vs. Vanderbilt predictions break down why the Commies could make things interesting in my favorite college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt prediction
My best bet
Vanderbilt +12.5 first half (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Following an incredible SEC showdown between Alabama and Georgia, the Crimson Tide roll into Nashville to take on an undervalued Vanderbilt squad. Is Alabama walking into a massive letdown spot — at least in terms of covering a three-touchdown spread?
At the very least, I think Bama could be in for a slow start. While the Tide are deserving of the No. 1 ranking in the country, they’re not infallible.
Jalen Milroe has been unleashed under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, but the Alabama run game needs more consistency on a down-to-down basis. The Tide enter Week 6 ranking just 66th in offensive success rate on rushing plays.
Alabama’s defense also showed a few weaknesses in their near loss to Georgia. They allowed Bulldogs’ QB Carson Beck to throw for 439 yards and only sit 52nd in success rate against the rush.
Although the Commodores enter this matchup at 2-2, their record doesn't give them enough credit. This is a program that lost on a last-minute drive to Georgia State in Week 3 and took Missouri to overtime last week.
A big reason for the improvement at Vanderbilt is credited to transfer quarterback Diego Pavia. The former New Mexico State QB has thrown for 721 yards with six touchdowns and no picks, while also adding 279 yards and two scores on the ground. As a result, Vandy enters this game ranked 35th in EPA/play and 46th in offensive success rate.
Meanwhile, the Commodores' defense has been doing its part as well, positioned 28th in defensive success rate and 52nd in yards per play. I’m betting on Vandy controlling the clock to start, keeping this game close for at least the first half.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt same-game parlay (SGP)
Vanderbilt +12.5 first half
Jam Miller 50+ rushing yards
Ryan Williams anytime touchdown
What do you do when you are in a letdown spot? Why, you lean on the run game of course.
Expect DeBoer to lean on his backs a bit more in this one. Jam Miller has the second-most attempts behind Milroe with 34 and is rushing for 8.0 yards per carry. Last week was the first time he didn’t hit 50 yards, so I expect him to get back on track against Vandy.
The Commodores have been burned by explosive plays this season and there is no one more explosive in this Alabama offense than the 17-year-old phenom Ryan Williams. The youngster has broken out with 16 receptions for an eye-popping 462 yards and five touchdowns this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Alabama vs Vanderbilt odds
Alabama vs Vanderbilt live odds
Alabama vs Vanderbilt opening odds
- Alabama vs. Vanderbilt spread: Vanderbilt +24
- Alabama vs. Vanderbilt moneyline: Alabama -3,000, Vanderbilt +1,400
- Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under: 54.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Alabama vs Vanderbilt spread and Over/Under analysis
- Vanderbilt opened this SEC matchup against juggernaut Alabama as 24-point underdogs, but early bettors have liked the home dog here, moving the line to 22.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- The total hit the board at 54.5 and currently sits at the opening number.
- Alabama will likely hit some explosive plays in this one, but Vandy being underrated should mean they score a few more points than expected. I have a slight lean to the Over here.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide have hit the game total Over in 9 of their last 12 games, while the Commodores have eclipsed the game total Over in six of their last nine. Find more college football betting trends for Alabama vs Vanderbilt.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt game info
| Location: | FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
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