Arizona vs Oklahoma Prediction: Alamo Bowl Odds and Picks

There’s no shortage of intrigue in tonight's matchup between the No. 14 Arizona Wildcats and the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners in the 2023 Alamo Bowl. 

Jedd Fisch’s Wildcats were the biggest surprise in the Pac-12 this season as they vastly outproduced expectations following a 5-7 finish a year ago. This marks their last game before departing for the Big 12. Ironically, this marks the Sooners’ last game as a member of the Big 12 before departing for the SEC. Brent Venables’ squad also finished with a losing record last year (6-7) but turned things around to be one of the Big 12’s best teams. 

Looking at college football odds, the Wildcats are 2.5-point favorites while the total has been set at 62.

Read on for my best bet and full college football picks for Arizona vs. Oklahoma on December 28. Be sure to also keep up with all the games using our bowl game odds tracker.

Arizona vs Oklahoma best odds

Arizona vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

The opt-out, transfer portal, and injury concern level is much higher with the Oklahoma Sooners than with the Arizona Wildcats. The only notable absence expected for the Arizona Wildcats at the time of this writing is star left tackle Jordan Morgan.

The Oklahoma Sooners, meanwhile, will be without starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel, rotational running back Marcus Major, three starting offensive linemen (left guard Cayden Green, center Andrew Raym, right tackle Tyler Guyton), and rotational defensive back Key Lawrence.

Despite the absences for the Sooners, I still think Venables’ squad is well-poised for a strong showing. The defense got two huge announcements when linebacker Danny Stutsman and safety Billy Bowman stated their intention to return for the 2024 season. 

The offense is also in good hands with Jackson Arnold next up at QB. The true freshman was a five-star recruit and has shown promise in limited playing time, completing 18 of 24 passes for 202 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions while rushing for 78 yards and a score. Gavin Sawchuk was the team’s best RB by the end of the season so the loss of Major won’t have an outsized impact.

Second-leading rusher Tawee Walker is in the portal but is staying with the team through the bowl game. The losses along the offensive line loom the largest and in my opinion, make up the biggest question mark for this game. 

Now, let’s take a look at both teams’ profiles by the metrics. Arizona checks in with an elite offense (eighth in EPA per play, sixth in success rate) and a mediocre defense (46th in EPA per play, 68th in success rate). Oklahoma has been the better overall team — the Sooners also feature an elite offense (ninth in EPA per play, seventh in success rate) and have been more effective on defense (25th in EPA per play, 34th in success rate). 

What might stand out about those numbers is Oklahoma profiles as the slightly better team but is still a 2.5-point underdog. That’s due to the absences of several impact Sooners, however, It’s the total that I have my eyes on for my best bet.

Arizona’s offense is humming, averaging at least 6.3 yards per play in four straight games to end the year, including a dismantling of a solid Utah defense. QB Noah Fifita has been nothing short of terrific, completing 73.6% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt with 23 TDs to only five INTs.

Oklahoma’s strong offense shouldn’t take much of a step back with Arnold under center. Littrell has a long and successful track record as an offensive coach and I don’t expect him to dial anything back from this dangerous, up-tempo attack.

The staff said they’ll keep the approach and the playbook the same for the bowl, and I’d expect them to do everything they can to coax a productive outing out of Arnold to build confidence before heading to the SEC. 

Give me the Over. 

My best bet: Over 62 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Arizona vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Over 62

Oklahoma +3

Jackson Arnold Over 246.5 passing yards

+385 at DraftKings 

In addition to my best bet on the Over, I’ll first add Oklahoma +3. This projects as a close game between two good teams, and it’s one where I’d rather take points than lay them. The Sooners are the better team on paper and while that’s mitigated by the transfer portal and opt-out concerns, I’m inclined to think the line correction is overreactionary. 

Part of my reason for that belief is that Arnold enters his era as Oklahoma’s starting quarterback with a lot of expectations. He’s a dual threat with a cannon of an arm, and he should be able to find success against an Arizona defense that ranks 52nd in EPA per pass and 56th in passing success rate.

The Sooners have thrown for over 250 yards in nine of 12 games this year and I don’t see a huge reason to expect a dropoff with the receiving room at full strength. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arizona vs Oklahoma spread and Over/Under analysis

There’s been Arizona love in the market, moving the Wildcats from -1.5 at open to either -2.5 or -3 at current depending on where you look. There’s also some variance in the total as anywhere from 62 to 63 is on the table depending on the book. 

Arizona has been a money-making machine at 10-2 against the spread, which includes a strong 7-1 ATS run over the final eight games of the season. 

Oklahoma, meanwhile, has been a profitable 8-4 ATS and 7-5 O/U. The Sooners have moved the ball in almost every matchup, averaging at least 5.8 yards per play in nine of their final 10 games. 

One of the reasons the Wildcats were so underrated in the market was the defense improved far more than anyone expected. After allowing 36.5 ppg a year ago — Arizona improved by over two full touchdowns per game, surrendering just 20.8 ppg this year. 

While those numbers are impressive and are a reason to celebrate for Arizona fans, I’ll point out this Oklahoma offense will be one of the best units it's seen all year.

Arizona vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

Oklahoma has hit the Over in 8 of its last 13 games. Find more college football betting trends for Arizona vs Oklahoma.

Arizona vs Oklahoma game info

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