November is in full swing and college football rattles on with another full slate on tap for Week 11.
We’re taking a closer look at two superstar quarterbacks — Cam Ward of the Miami Hurricanes and Shedeur Sanders of the Colorado Buffaloes — plus an ultra-productive wide receiver with this week’s best bets in the player props market.
Read on to see my three favorite player props and college football picks for Saturday, November 9.
Best college football player for Week 11
Cam Ward o313.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel) 
DT Sheffield anytime touchdown (-110 at DraftKings) 
Shedeur Sanders o324.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 11-08 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
College football player props for Week 11
Prop bet #1: Cam Ward Over 313.5 passing yards
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward has the second-shortest Heisman Trophy odds (+200), and it’s no mystery why he’s near the top as he fits the mold of the typical Heisman winner, accumulating gaudy stats for one of the nation’s top teams.
The Hurricanes checked in at No. 4 in the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings and have a 9-0 record heading into a Week 11 date with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The MO offensively has been to let Ward sling it and he’s done just that, accumulating 3,146 passing yards and 29 touchdowns to six interceptions.
His passing yardage prop is set at 313.5 — an eye-catching number considering Ward has eclipsed it in seven of his nine games. The Miami staff has been happy to let him post gaudy stat lines and garner Heisman attention, and I see no reason why that would change now.
Miami has been prone to shootouts as the defense has given up far too many big plays (131st in explosiveness) en route to a disappointing ranking of 54th in EPA per play. The Hurricanes have far too much talent to post those numbers, but at this point in the season it is evident that there are gaping holes left for opponents to exploit every week.
Georgia Tech has stumbled at points offensively but would see a massive boost if quarterback Haynes King returns from injury. He practiced this week and coach Brent Key said he’s “hopeful” about his status.
The Yellow Jackets have been a bit of a pass funnel defensively, ranking just 84th in EPA per pass and 88th in passing success rate but shutting down opposing rushing teams (21st in EPA per rush, fifth in line yards, second in stuff rate).
The book on Ward is that he can be thrown off his game if you create enough pressure, forcing him into mistakes. Georgia Tech does not appear well-poised to strike his Achilles heel, ranking 127th in PFF’s pass rush grade.
Prop bet #2: DT Sheffield anytime touchdown
One of the more intriguing Group of 5 games this week features the Army Black Knights and the North Texas Mean Green. Army is 8-0 and has been one of the best stories of the season while North Texas has been a must-monitor team due to its penchant for getting into shootouts.
The Mean Green are averaging 40.8 points per game but have a 5-3 record thanks to a faulty defense surrendering 36.9 ppg. The books are expecting another shootout in Week 11 as the total currently sits at 63.5.
North Texas’ offense will need to be on its “A” game to keep pace with Army’s offense (second in EPA per play, second in success rate), which should run wild when it was the ball. Black Knights star quarterback Bryson Daily missed last week’s game against Air Force but was described by coach Jeff Monken as being somewhere “between questionable and probable”.
Wide receiver DT Sheffield has been among the most productive pass catchers in the country, racking up 772 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. The diminutive speedster has hit paydirt in every game since the opener, and I’ll bet him doing so again at -110 in an anticipated shootout.
Sheffield has nearly double the targets (73) of any other receiver on his team and is the clear alpha. It’ll be difficult for Army’s defense to match the speed and athleticism of Sheffield and a Mean Green offense that ranks 12th in EPA per play and first in explosiveness.
Prop bet #3: Shedeur Sanders Over 324.5 passing yards
FanDuel has set Shedeur Sanders’ passing yardage prop at 324.5. He gets a juicy matchup against a terrible Texas Tech Red Raiders defense, so I’m buying the Over.
There should be plenty of snaps in this game between a Texas Tech team that ranks 15th in my tempo metric and a Colorado Buffaloes team that checks in at 38th. Colorado’s skill players stand to benefit from the added snaps, and this is a plus matchup.
The Red Raiders have been a sieve defensively, ranking 106th in EPA per play, 98th in success rate, and 111th in explosiveness. The secondary has been particularly vulnerable, allowing at least 270 passing yards in six straight games.
Recall that this is the same secondary that was torched for 506 yards and three scores by an FCS school (Abilene Christian) in the opener. Overall, Tech ranks 102nd in EPA per pass, 103rd in passing success rate, and 127th in PFF’s coverage grade.
Those numbers aren’t going to cut it against a Buffaloes offense that throws the ball a ton (seventh in pass rate) and does so efficiently (19th in passing success rate). The Red Raiders don’t create any pressure (119th in front-seven havoc, 84th in PFF’s pass rush grade), so Shedeur should have all day to pick apart this poor defense.
Sanders is averaging 323.8 passing yards per game, so we can see where the books got this number. That being said, this is an A+ matchup and we should project Sanders to do better than his average performance.
NCAAF odds Week 11
Here are the full NCAAF odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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