Fall is in full force, and there’s nothing stopping college football fans from conquering the world as there’s a terrific slate of games on tap for Week 7.
Let’s turn our attention to the college football player props market where a bevy of bettable options await.
My college football picks for Saturday, October 12, focus on a trio of players, highlighted by RB sensation Ashton Jeanty.
College football props for Week 7
- Antonio Williams Over 43.5 rec yds (-114 at FanDuel)
- Kaden Feagin 80+ rush yds (+105 at DraftKings)
- Ashton Jeanty Over 185 rush yds (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 10-11. Read full analysis of each pick.
College football player props this week
Prop bet #1: Antonio Williams Over 43.5 receiving yards
Best odds: -114 at FanDuel
The Wake Forest Deamon Deacons have been a trainwreck defensively and this likely won’t be the last time I fade them. I did it last week en route to an easy cash as tight end Justin Joly easily eclipsed 40 receiving yards against this porous defense.
The next rider of the 'Wake Forest Fade Train' is Clemson Tigers wide receiver Antonio Williams. He’s the alpha of this emerging offense, leading the team in targets (26), receptions (19), receiving yards (284), and receiving touchdowns (four).
He’s the go-to guy in the passing game for a superb offense averaging 39.4 ppg while ranking 11th in EPA per play. My, my... how things can change in a year’s time.
If Wiliams is averaging 56.8 receiving yards per game but the books have priced his receiving yardage prop down at 43.5, surely this must be a difficult matchup? My poor child, no.
Wake Forest defines the word turnstile on defense, ranking 133rd in success rate. There are only 134 teams in the FBS, so... that’s not great.
The Demon Deacons have been particularly vulnerable against the pass, ranking 127th in EPA per pass and 134th (yes, dead last!) in passing success rate. They don’t create any pressure (127th in front-seven havoc), and their team leader in both TFLs and sacks (Kevin Pointer) missed last week’s game and is considered doubtful to play against this week’s bully.
The injury concerns don’t stop there, as starter Capone Blue is also considered doubtful, and two other contributors left last week’s game after getting banged up. This is all icing on the cake for a mispriced prop.
Prop bet #2: Kaden Feagin 80+ rushing yards
Best odds: +105 at DraftKings
I’ve targeted running back Kaden Feagin before in this column to mixed results, but I have no qualms about going back to the well in a fantastic matchup against the Purdue Boilermakers.
If you thought I put it on too heavy in disrespecting Wake’s defense in the first prop, things won’t get much different when I try to explain Purdue’s defensive performance through six weeks.
The Boilermakers don’t believe in tackling opposing football players or preventing them from scoring. It’s a firm stance, too, hence the bullish stance on Feagin.
Purdue is a disgrace to the “three yards and a cloud of dust” brand of football the Big Ten has openly embraced. The Boilermakers (you’ll need to consume at least three to stomach watching them play a competitive sport) rank 131st in EPA per rush and 121st in rushing explosiveness.
The defensive line is particularly atrocious, “aiding” the cause for ranks of 125th in line yards, 121st in power success rate, 104th in stuff rate, and 111th in front-seven havoc.
Notre Dame ran for 363 yards and six scores (fresh off a home loss to mighty Northern Illinois), Oregon State ran for 341 and four scores, and Wisconsin just hit them for 228 yards and four scores despite being down its top rusher.
Feagin is an athletic freak who broke out as a true freshman a year ago and averaged 66.5 rushing yards per game in his last two contests against very stout defenses (Penn State and Nebraska). Purdue doesn’t deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as those teams.
The 'Purdue Fade Train' is moving along and Feagin’s cost of admission is cheap enough for me to buy.
Prop bet #3: Ashton Jeanty Over 185 rushing yards
Best odds: -110 at DraftKings
So, about that Ashton Jeanty guy. He cannot be tackled, leading the country with 49 missed tackles forced (10 more than the next-closest competitor) and 7.95 yards after contact per attempt.
The current Heisman frontrunner leads the nation with 206.2 rushing yards per game, a stat which becomes even more incomprehensible when you factor in he sat out the second half in two of his team’s five games.
The Boise State Broncos face a decent defense in the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (10th in success rate overall, 40th in rushing success rate), but honestly, that might help him hit this rushing yardage prop Over.
The only hindrance thus far has been sitting out the second half of blowouts, and any resistance Hawaii can provide will just encourage the Boise staff to feed Jeanty.
The Rainbow Warriors have been playing at a makeshift home site called the T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. This venue has been very windy, and this Saturday will be no exception, as the forecast calls for winds of 14.5 to 16.6 mph throughout the game.
Hawaii has been superb against the pass (sixth in passing success rate), and the added winds will likely only encourage more Jeanty usage. The man is a freak of nature ready to punish any and all willing tacklers, and I’d rather be on the right side of history.
Not intended for use in MA.
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