This season in the Big 12, it's out with the old and in with the new.
Out go blue blood programs Texas and Oklahoma, who are off to the SEC. However, while many thought the departure of the Red River showdown would be the downfall of the Big 12, that’s not the case at all.
In comes 2021 and 2022 Pac-12 champions Utah, Deion Sanders’ Colorado, plus both Arizona and Arizona State. And with plenty of good incumbent Big 12 teams, the college football odds say this could be one of the most competitive and exciting conferences in the entire county.
Big 12 predictions for 2024
- Utah to win Big 12 (+320)
- Colorado Under 5.5 wins (+110)
- Iowa State Over 7.5 wins (-160)
- Best Heisman bet: Ollie Gordon (+7,500)
Click on each pick to read full analysis.
Big 12 championship odds
| Team |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
 Utah Utes |
+320 | +280 |
 Kansas State Wildcats |
+380 | +400 |
Odds as of 8-23.
| Team | |
|
|---|---|---|
 Oklahoma State Cowboys |
+750 | +850 |
 UCF Knights |
+900 | +850 |
 Kansas Jayhawks |
+950 | +1,000 |
 Iowa State Cyclones |
+950 | +1,000 |
 Arizona Wildcats |
+1,100 | +1,100 |
 Texas Tech Red Raiders |
+1,400 | +2,100 |
 West Virginia Mountaineers |
+1,800 | +1,800 |
 TCU Horned Frogs |
+1,800 | +1,800 |
Odds as of 8-23.
| Team | |
|
|---|---|---|
 Colorado Buffaloes |
+2,800 | +2,500 |
 Baylor Bears |
+6,000 | +8,000 |
 Cincinnati Bearcats |
+8,000 | +8,000 |
 Arizona State Sun Devils |
+10,000 | +12,000 |
 Houston Cougars |
+11,000 | +10,000 |
 BYU Cougars |
+12,000 | +14,000 |
Odds as of 8-23.
It's a numbers game
If the Big 12 has taught us anything in the past, it’s that things don’t often go as scripted in this conference.
The competitive nature of the conference could be its undoing when it comes to the College Football Playoff. If these teams all beat up each other, it could mean only the conference champion gets into the CFP.
That said, I’m betting one program is a step above the rest and will punch its ticket, Big 12 title or not.
The favorites
To me, Kyle Whittingham's Utah Utes are the clear-cut frontrunners in the Big 12. When a team usually transitions to another conference, it is a step up in competition, but I’m not sure that’s the case with the Utes.
This is a Utah team that won back-to-back Pac-12 titles in 2021 and 2022, beating the likes of Bo Nix and Oregon and Caleb Williams and USC to get those crowns. Frankly, Utah would have had a chance to three-peat if not for a knee injury that cost Cam Rising the entire 2023 season, but he enters this season healthy and ready to roll.
The incumbent Big 12 favorite is the Kansas State Wildcats, and a lot of that hype has to do with quarterback Avery Johnson. The sophomore signal caller showed flashes of his potential as a true freshman, and it’s easy to think he’ll be the best quarterback in the Big 12 someday.
However, Chris Klieman’s team returns just 12 starters (four on offense) and Johnson only completed 56% of passes last season. That means the door in the Big 12 title game could be open just a crack.
The rest of the field
The Oklahoma State Cowboys boast the top running back in the country with Ollie Gordon, but can their defense improve at giving up big plays?
Meanwhile, it looked like the Big 12 was a big step up in competition for the UCF Knights last season, but has the team’s overall talent improved enough to change that? Kansas is also a legitimate title contender if Jalon Daniels can stay healthy.
We could see some crazy results in the Big 12 this season.
Pick to win the Big 12: Utah
Odds: +320 at DraftKings
In a conference that could be as crazy as they come, I’m sticking with what I know when it comes to picking a winner, and that is Utah being the class of the Big 12.
Whittingham is one of the best coaches in all of college football. He returns 15 starters to his team in 2024, including Rising.
Not only has Rising passed for 5,572 yards and 46 touchdowns while rushing for nearly 1,000 more as the Utes quarterback, but he is the unequivocal leader of the Utes and a big reason why they were able to win back-to-back Pac-12 titles.
Rising will be playing behind a solid offensive line and gets his top target back in tight end Brant Kluithe, so his offense should see a big boost in production this season. Meanwhile, led by Junior Tafuna, Utah's defensive line could be one of the scariest in the country.
The Utes' defense allowed just 19.3 points per game last season, despite facing Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr., Noah Fifita, and Shedeur Sanders. The Big 12 does not have that level of QB play this season.
This is the most complete team in the Big 12, as they are well-coached and know what it takes to win. I also believe the Utes will perform well enough this season to make the College Football Playoff (+200 at bet365), even if they lose the Big 12 title game.
Big 12 best bets for 2024
Colorado Under 5.5 wins
Odds: +110 at DraftKings
The hype train around Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes can’t be slowed down, but don’t we remember what happened last year? Colorado began the year 3-0 before taking an absolute nosedive and going 1-8 the rest of the way.
So, why is the hype train steaming along with the Buffs’ win total sitting at 5.5 and the juice on the Over? Let’s call it the College Football 25 effect. Yes, I am referencing a video game in my betting preview. When the game released its team ratings back in July, the Buffs were ranked as the 16th best in the country.
While Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are both great, they won’t have much time to play catch. The offensive line is arguably the worst in the conference and maybe one of the worst in the entire Power Four.
Through the transfer portal, Coach Sanders attempted to improve a stop unit that had the seventh-worst defensive success rate in the country and allowed 34.8 ppg, but I’m not sure the talent brought in will offer much hope.
Then take a look at the Buffs’ schedule. Please, I am begging you. Point out six wins to me.
Hell, even their non-conference opener isn’t a gimmie, as FBS powerhouse North Dakota State comes to town as 9-point underdogs. There’s no denying Prime can create hype, but I can’t help but see the value in the Under 5.5, particularly at plus money.
Iowa State Over 7.5 wins
Odds: -160 at DraftKings
Matt Campbell’s Iowa State Cyclones always seem to perform at their best when they are the most overlooked. And while I mentioned them as a contender in the Big 12 this season, they certainly aren’t getting the love some of the other top teams are.
Iowa State was dealt a serious blow last preseason, as a gambling scandal resulted in the loss of its starting quarterback. However, backup redshirt freshman Rocco Becht revitalized the offense and threw 16 touchdowns to just five interceptions in conference play.
Becht has had another season to grow, and the Cyclones now turn a whopping 19 starters. That includes the entire offensive line, four receivers, and 10 bodies on defense.
The schedule lays out pretty well for Iowa State. I have them starting the season at 4-1, or even 5-0, depending on how the rivalry game with Iowa plays out. After that, they face a series of toss-up games before taking on Cincinnati in Ames on November 16. The Cyclones then wrap up the season with a road game at Utah, followed by a home game against Kansas State.
In a conference full of crazy outcomes, Campbell and Iowa State are as reliable as they come.
Best Big 12 bet to win the Heisman: Ollie Gordon
Odds: +7,500 at FanDuel
It sounds like Gordon will avoid any sort of game suspension discipline for his offseason DUI.
The Cowboys running back is an explosive threat who measures in at 6-foot-2 and 215 lbs. Last season saw the junior total 1,778 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground, at a clip of 6.1 yards per carry.
He’s also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, having hauled in 39 passes for 330 yards. Gordon will run behind a Pokes offensive line that returns all five starters. If he can improve on those numbers in 2024, there is definitely some value in him winning the Heisman.
Big 12 stat to know
Want to know how close and competitive the Big 12 can be this season? According to Bill Connelly’s (ESPN) SP+ rankings (a predictive analysis stat), the top Big 12 team (Kansas State) ranks 15th in the nation, while the eighth-best program (Texas Tech) is 43rd.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
