If nothing else, it’s always fun to see what Deion Sanders and Colorado will do next. The Buffs are coming off a much-needed win over rival Colorado State, and tonight they open Big 12 play as they welcome Baylor to Boulder.
Colorado is a slight home favorite in this matchup, but my Baylor vs. Colorado predictions see nothing but a total ripe for the picking.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, September 21.
Baylor vs Colorado prediction
My best bet
Under 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Colorado Buffaloes experience sure is something else. You can’t call it a roller coaster though, because that would indicate there are highs for the Buffs.
While Colorado is coming off a 28-9 win as 7-point road favorites over rival Colorado State, a result like that should be expected when you consider the talent discrepancies between the two teams.
The week prior the Buffs got bullied by Nebraska, losing 28-10 as 6.5-point road dogs. Between that loss and the scare North Dakota State put into them in the season opener, we’ve got a pretty good idea of who Colorado is — a very flawed team with some very talented players and some questionable coaching.
The offensive line is still a mess. Nebraska sacked Shedeur Sanders six times and held him to 23-38 passing for 244 yards with one touchdown and one pick.
Now, the Baylor Bears' defensive line might not be as good as the Cornhuskers’ but head coach Dave Aranda would call it one of his team’s strengths. Mix that with a secondary that returns four starters and it could be another long night for Sanders & Son. In fact, Baylor enters this game leading the country in defensive success rate.
So, the Bears are a really good team, right? Well, not so fast. Baylor’s offense is definitely still a work in progress.
The Bears were led by Toledo transfer and reigning MAC player of the year, DeQuan Finn but his transition to a Power Four conference wasn’t smooth. Finn completed just 54 percent of his passes for 307 yards with three touchdowns and two picks over his first two games.
He then suffered an arm injury, keeping him out of the 31-3 win against Air Force where backup Sawyer Robertson went 18-28 for 248 yards with no touchdowns or picks.
No Baylor is listing both as the starting quarterback for this game against Colorado. And what’s the old saying? “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.”
I think Baylor knows this and that is why the team has leaned heavily on the run game this season, rushing the ball more than 64% of the time this season. And to give the Buffs some credit, they haven’t been the worst against the run, limiting opponents to just over four yards per carry.
All that to say I’m targeting the total. We missed the best number here, but even at the current number of 51.5, there is still value on the Under. These teams would have played below this number in five of their six combined games.
Baylor vs Colorado same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 51.5
Bryson Washington 50+ Rushing Yards
Bryson Washington Anytime TD
Now, while I just said Colorado’s run defense isn’t bad, it isn’t the best either, ranking 59th in opponent EPA per rush. And if I didn’t make it clear, Baylor is committed to running the football.
The Bears already have three running backs with over 100 yards rushing this season and four they have given regular carries to. Plus, DeQuan Finn is a rushing threat if he’s on the field. But the back I want to focus on is Bryson Washington.
Washington, a sophomore back with just 10 carries last season, was the breakout star in Baylor’s 31-3 win over Air Force. Washington who missed Baylor’s first two games with an injury rushed 12 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. He also added 23 yards on a reception.
Washington got plenty of praise from Dave Aranda in camp and you should expect a heavy dose of him in this matchup against Colorado. Let’s add Washington to hit 50+ yards and find the end zone in this one.
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Baylor vs Colorado odds
Baylor vs Colorado live odds
Baylor vs Colorado opening odds
- Spread: Baylor -1 | Colorado +1
- Moneyline: Baylor -115 | Colorado -105
- Over/Under: Over 54 | Under 54
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Baylor vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis
- Another week, another ridiculous amount of Colorado love. This line opened with Baylor as a 1-point road favorite but the line has jumped the fence and its now Colorado that is a 2-point favorite.
- I don't know what Colorado has done to get all of these people to wager their hard-earned dollars on them. This is lined as a close game for a reason and I can see a wide array of outcomes. I'll stick to the total thank you very much.
- Speaking of that, the total hit the board at 54, and early bettors jumped on the Under taking the number down to 51.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- According to BetMGM, this game has the third most Over tickets of any game this week. That means it is likely sharp money that has caused this move. This is one case where I'll happily fade the public.
Baylor vs Colorado betting trend to know
Baylor has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games for +1.50 Units and an 11% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Baylor vs Colorado.
Baylor vs Colorado game info
| Location: | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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