Michigan State looks to remain perfect under its new head coach when it travels to face Boston College in a Week 4 showdown.
The Spartans will be down several starters tonight, and young quarterback Aidan Chiles will find himself under pressure — as such, my Michigan State vs. Boston College predictions believe BC will win this one comfortably.
I explain why the Eagles are set to soar in my college football picks for Saturday, September 21.
Michigan State vs Boston College prediction
My best bet
Boston College -6.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
News broke Friday evening that Michigan State would likely be without starting receivers Nick Marsh and Jaron Glover. That makes it much easier to take the Eagles and lay the 6.5 points on Saturday.
Aidan Chiles will be making the second road start of his career, and he performed well in the first one against Maryland, completing 24 of 38 attempts for 363 yards and three touchdowns.
But 14 of those 24 completions went to Marsh and Glover, with the former catching a 77-yard downfield bomb. Chiles also threw two picks on the day, and according to PFF, his rate of turnover-worthy throws is eighth-highest among all quarterbacks in college football.
The loss of Marsh goes beyond just his relationship with Chiles. He’s an elite speedster, the kind of player who forces a defense to stay in check and account for him possibly going deep.
Without the ability to take the top off the Boston College defense, Chiles will struggle to find space to throw the ball. Michigan State’s passing success rate is just 27% on the year, while the Eagles are allowing a success rate of just 19% on passing downs while playing much tougher opposition.
Why is this important? First, the Spartans are among the most-penalized teams in college football. They rank 128th or worse in penalties per play, penalty yards per flag, and penalty yards per game. And they come into this game with a third-stringer starting on the offensive line.
Second, their run game has been ineffective. That’s allowed defenses to try to key on Chiles, and the absence of his favorite target makes that even more effective. The Spartans rank 107th in completion rate when throwing the ball, and Chiles has one of the worst interception rates in all of college football.
Boston College ranks in the Top 40 in both EPA per run and EPA per dropback. Michigan State’s defense is stout against the run, but they struggle on third down and are giving up way too many explosive plays.
Thomas Castellanos is among the Top 10 quarterbacks in the nation in completions of 20+ yards and QBR. He can buy time with his legs against Michigan State’s pass rush, and the Eagles will keep drives moving as they chew up the clock. Chiles will turn it over twice, and Boston College will capitalize and cover the spread.
Michigan State vs Boston College same-game parlay (SGP)
Boston College -5.5
Under 45.5
Lewis Bond 40+ receiving yards
In addition to taking BC -5.5 points — BetMGM isn’t offering the -6.5 number for SGP purposes — we’re tacking on two additional plays.
Only four teams are running their offense at a slower rate this season than the Eagles, and they’re still trying to find sustained success with their ground game. Both of these defenses stop the run very well, and the absence of his favorite weapons will stifle Chiles and the Spartan offense. This total will go Under.
Lewis Bond is Castellanos’ favorite target, and he’s caught at least four passes each of the last two games. That includes a four catch, 51-yard outing against Missouri last week.
He has at least 40 yards receiving in 11 of 16 games going back to the start of the 2023 season, including six of his eight home games. Michigan State allowed 38+ receiving yards to three players in their game against Maryland, and Bond will reach that floor here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan State vs Boston College odds
Michigan State vs Boston College live odds
Michigan State vs Boston College opening odds
- Spread: Michigan State +6.5 (-110) | Boston College -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan State +!90 | Boston College -250
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Michigan State vs Boston College spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston College opened as a -6.5 favorite, and the line briefly moved to -7.5 before retreating. The Eagles lost at Missouri last week, but they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games while Michigan State is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine, including 1-2 this season.
- The total of 45.5 has stayed steady since opening. Two of BC’s three games have gone past this number so far, but the Under is 6-3 in its last nine games.
- Meanwhile, Michigan State has had just one game go past 40 points. The Spartans have also seen the Under cash in five of their last six games.
- The low total is in large part due to how well both teams play against the run, as well as the slow pace of play. Add in Michigan State’s penalty issues, and you have a strong recipe for an Under.
Michigan State vs Boston College betting trend to know
Boston College has hit the moneyline in seven of its last 12 games (+11.15 Units / 61% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Michigan State vs Boston College.
Michigan State vs Boston College game info
| Location: | Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
Michigan State vs Boston College latest injuries
Michigan State vs Boston College weather
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