The Liberty Flames roster has been decimated by roster attrition in the last month, pushing the Buffalo Bulls to be unexpected favorites.
My Buffalo vs. Liberty predictions recognize how cloudy that can make handicapping, but also how much value that can bring in my college football picks for January 4.
Kick-off is at 11:00 a.m. ET on ESPN2
Buffalo vs Liberty prediction and best bet
Who will win Buffalo vs Liberty?
In a more normal circumstance, one in which Liberty still enjoyed its starting backfield and most of its starting offensive line, the Flames might be two-score favorites in this matchup.
However, it could still spring this upset. The Flames’ gameplan will not change, a run-heavy offense that stays ahead of the chains better than anyone else in the country. And that kind of success rate — a rushing success rate of 52.3% this season, per cfb-graphs — should be trusted to raise the floor no matter the roster situation.
This line has thus moved too far, and Liberty as an underdog should still get the win, particularly since Buffalo struggles defending the run, ranking No. 84 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against.
My best bet
Liberty moneyline (+125 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This is entirely a bet on the value of this line moving so far. To use ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings as a barometer, Liberty would have been favored by about nine points in a vacuum.
Moving the line made sense, to an extent. The Flames are without starting quarterback Kaidon Salter (15 passing touchdowns and seven rushing in 11 games), as well as leading running back Quinton Cooley (1,254 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 6.12 yards per carry) and at least three offensive line starters.
But it's not like Liberty has nothing remaining. Senior running back Billy Lucas has taken more than 100 carries for 5.53 yards per attempt this season, and the offensive line depth chart is riddled with veterans.
This is an offense that hardly throws the ball, anyway, choosing to run the ball 15.5% more often than the average team would be expected to in a given game state, per cfb-graphs. To lend that context, only six teams ran more often, and three of them were service academies.
So while losing Salter is a frustration, it will not doom the offense as much as many may expect. Buffalo is also prone to giving up successful rushes, a big part of why this defense ranked No. 100 in the season in EPA per snap against.
Liberty’s offensive gameplan should keep the Bahamas Bowl close, and that higher floor should always be enjoyed with a moneyline underdog.
On the other side of the ball, Buffalo does not do anything well enough to inspire fear. Frankly, its offense will be the worst unit on the field. Its floor could be sea level on Saturday, furthering the logic for betting on Liberty.
Buffalo vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Liberty moneyline
Under 50
Betting on Liberty is betting on its running game, and betting on its running game is betting on a shorter game. Thus, the Under coincides with the Liberty moneyline.
To emphasize how bad Buffalo’s offense is, know that it turns just 38.3% of its possessions into quality drives, No. 100 in the country. Repeated failures like that will be all the more obvious after a week in the Bahamas.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Buffalo vs Liberty odds
Buffalo vs Liberty live odds
Buffalo vs Liberty opening odds
- Buffalo vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -2.5
- Buffalo vs. Liberty moneyline: Buffalo +115, Liberty -135
- Buffalo vs. Liberty Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Buffalo vs Liberty spread and Over/Under analysis
- Buffalo originally opened as a 2.5-point underdog, a number that held firm for nearly a week before falling to +1 and then jumping the fence. It spent Christmas week steaming to -2, climbing to -3 just after New Year’s.
- Moving nearly six points is one thing, and to cross zero while doing so is even more notable.
- The total opened at 51.5 and climbed to 52.5 for a chunk of December before falling on Christmas Eve to 51.5 and on Christmas Day to 50.5.
Buffalo vs Liberty betting trend to know
This presents a worry in contrast to the above best bet, but it should still be noted that Flames head coach Jamey Chadwell is 0-4 ATS in bowl games. Find more college football betting trends for Buffalo vs Liberty.
Buffalo vs Liberty game info
| Location: | Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, BS |
| Date: | Saturday, 1-4-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Buffalo vs Liberty latest injuries
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Buffalo vs Liberty weather
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