The California Golden Bears have only played the Texas Tech Red Raiders once before, a 45-31 Texas Tech win in 2004 in the Holiday Bowl. Years later, they meet again tonight in Shreveport, LA.
Both teams are without their starting quarterbacks, which is just the tip of the iceberg when trying to find value in college football odds. Regardless, we have you covered with our free college football picks and predictions for California vs. Texas Tech on December 16.
California vs Texas Tech best odds
California vs Texas Tech picks and predictions
Of Texas Tech’s 14 touchdown passes to receivers this season, two targets responsible for nine of those catches have entered the transfer portal.
When a single position group takes a hit like that, it warrants more notice than broader transfers or opt-outs. The duo represented wildly different skill sets, with Myles Price, a 5-foot-8 athlete, using his small frame to his advantage as a savvy route runner, while Jerand Bradley, standing tall at 6-foot-5, provided a towering presence for contested catches.
Losing that will slow the Red Raiders’ passing game, even with a month to prepare. For that matter, junior quarterback Behren Morton struggled to close the season, even when he had those targets available, throwing just four touchdowns in his final four games while adding five interceptions.
Three of those four defenses — TCU, Kansas, and Central Florida — are rather average against the pass. California is a bit better than each, ranking No. 44 in adjusted expected points added per opposing dropback, and that is the lesser half of the Golden Bears’ defense.
Of course, praising Cal’s defense is usually followed by scoffing at its offense, one that was somewhat propped up this season by advantageous field position. Overall, the Golden Bears thrived on explosive plays, something Texas Tech does not make a habit of giving up.
Of the four units on the field in Louisiana, the two defenses should be the best two, by far. Yet, this total continues to sit as high as 57.5.
The Raiders’ receiver losses should slow their offense, one that did not like leaning into the run but now may need to even against a stout rush defense. Meanwhile, Cal’s struggling offense will not match up well with Texas Tech’s worthwhile defense.
My best bet: Under 57.5 (-113 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
California vs Texas Tech same-game parlay
Under 56.5
First half Over 27.5
Jadyn Ott anytime touchdown
Yes, you read that right. Under on the game but Over in the first half. That is a curious needle to thread, but it is one that boosts any same-game parlay playout.
While both programs have other tasks to worry about (namely the transfer portal and Early Signing Day coming next week), between those visits are plenty of flights with film study. Ultimately, both Cal and Texas Tech should have encouraging opening scripts schemed up for this one.
There is value in betting on those opening scripts to work before the overall expectations of this game set in. In other words, there is value in betting a first-half Over despite firmly believing in the full-game Under, and that combination alone creates a parlay worth +550.
How a Jadyn Ott anytime touchdown then pushes this SGP to +800 defies some understanding. Ott has 14 total touchdowns this season and has found paydirt in 10 of his 11 games. As long as Ott is playing in this game, then counting on him to cross the goal line is an obvious choice.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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California vs Texas Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
When this line reached all markets, Texas Tech was listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 56.5.
The Raiders quickly became 2.5-point favorites, then -3 just a day later, where this line has held since. As hard as it can be to use the season to influence bowl-game betting, Texas Tech is 1-3 against the spread this season as a short favorite of -3 or less, and 2-2 outright.
The total quickly jumped up to 58.5 before dropping to 56.5 on Thursday, right about when more genuine bowl betting begins to take place. Always look for movement 48-to-72 hours before these postseason exhibitions.
California vs Texas Tech betting trend to know
Cal has hit the 1H game total Over in seven of its last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Cal vs Texas Tech.
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Californiavs Texas Tech game info
| Location: | Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
California vs Texas Tech latest injuries
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