Two teams looking to stay in the hunt for bowl eligibility square off on Friday night as the California Golden Bears head to Winston-Salem to visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.
Cal has lost four of its last five games while Wake has some steam, winning three of its last four.
Read on to see my California vs. Wake Forest predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 8.
California vs Wake Forest prediction and best bet
My best bet
Wake Forest +7 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Friday night’s game should be hotly contested as both the California Golden Bears and Wake Forest Demon Deacons are fighting for a bowl appearance. Cal is still looking for its first-ever ACC victory, whereas Wake is looking for its fourth win in five games.
It’s been a frustrating season for Cal. The Bears have played quality football, for the most part, but are winless in conference play with their four losses coming by a combined nine points.
Wake has been the slight inverse in that the Demon Deacons’ last three wins have come by a combined 10 points. Both teams have a habit of playing in one-score games — Wake has done so in four of its last five while the same could be said of Cal — so I’m taking the points with the Demon Deacons in what forecasts as a close contest.
Wake was without its two corners, Jamare Glasker and Capone Blue, against Stanford but both might make their return this week. Glasker was out with a fever and is likely recovered after the bye.
The Demon Deacons have been poor on defense (120th in EPA per play) for much of the year but are getting healthier, and it’s not like Cal has been deadly on offense (84th in success rate).
The Bears really struggle to block, ranking 115th in line yards, 126th in front-seven havoc, and 96th in stuff rate. It’s hard to trust a team laying a full touchdown on the road for a cross-country road trip, especially when it can’t block. The Bears were the victim for Florida State’s only victory of the season, surrendering 12 TFLs in a total collapse up front.
I don’t see enough separating these teams to trust Cal at this number. For example, Wake is PFF’s 54th-graded team overall while Cal is 70th. These are two teams of a similar caliber so I’ll grab the points with the home team in what seems like a close game.
California vs Wake Forest same-game parlay (SGP)
Wake Forest +7
Fernando Mendoza Over 254.5 passing yards
Jaydn Ott anytime TD
Horatio Fields Over 49.5 receiving yards
Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza has thrown for at least 270 yards in five straight games. He matches up with a Wake secondary that has struggled all year long, ranking 127th in EPA per pass and 133rd in passing success rate.
Cal’s biggest issue offensively is that it can’t block, but that concern is mitigated against a Wake team with just 10 sacks on the year and a rank of 129th in front-seven havoc.
The Bears have a star running back in Jaydn Ott. The NFL Draft prospect accumulated 1,484 yards and 14 touchdowns a year ago but hasn’t been able to display his ability this year while struggling with injuries. He made his return to the field last game and was described as the healthiest he’s been all year, and I expect him to look a bit more like his former self following the much-needed bye week.
The Wake player I’m focusing on in the prop market is Horatio Fields.
He’s locked into a high-volume role in the absence of teammate Donavon Greene, seeing at least seven targets in four of his last five games. I’ll bet on him reaching 50 receiving yards as one of his team’s top options offensively, especially if star running back Demond Claiborne is at less than 100% after leaving the Deacons’ last game and putting ice on his shoulder.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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California vs Wake Forest odds
California vs Wake Forest live odds
California vs Wake Forest opening odds
- California vs. Wake Forest spread: Wake Forest +7.5
- California vs. Wake Forest moneyline: California -275, Wake Forest +220
- California vs. Wake Forest Over/Under: 54.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
California vs Wake Forest spread and Over/Under analysis
- This will be the first-ever meeting between these two schools. Cal has traveled East three times this year, beating Auburn and losing to both Florida State and Pittsburgh.
- Cal has struggled in conference play under Justin Wilcox for a while now, going 2-10 in its last 12 games against conference opponents.
- Wake has tended to get into high-scoring first halves, hitting the 1H Total Over in seven of its last 11 games. That makes for a contrast of styles against a Cal team that has cashed the Under in six straight away games.
California vs Wake Forest betting trend to know
In Cal’s last 18 games against Power Conference teams, it has won by more than seven points just twice. Find more college football betting trends for California vs Wake Forest.
California vs Wake Forest game info
| Location: | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC |
| Date: | Friday, 11-8-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
California vs Wake Forest latest injuries
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