With their chances at the College Football Playoff dashed with an upset loss last week, can the Memphis Tigers regroup to compete for an American Athletic Conference crown?
They host the Rice Owls — who are coming off their own upset stunner in Week 10 — on Friday night as 9.5-point favorites in the college football odds.
My Rice vs. Memphis predictions have this one coming in close, with the Owls threatening to throw another wrench in the AAC picture in my college football picks for November 8.
Rice vs Memphis prediction and best bet
My best bet
Rice +9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Memphis Tigers' dreams of qualifying for the CFP were blown up with a 44-36 loss to UTSA last week, but they still have three games left to play.
They’re still technically in the mix for a conference title, and they’ve guaranteed themselves a bowl game, but this next matchup against the Rice Owls might be a tough one to play through.
The Owls enter this one having dumped the Navy Midshipmen, 24-10, knocking them from the ranks of the AAC unbeatens. They also have a win over UTSA this year — the two teams that have hung losses on the Tigers.
Rice brings a top-tier defense to the table, ranking 23rd in the nation in total yards allowed, which will go head-to-head with Memphis’ offensive attack that sits 26th in total yards at just under 440 per game.
It should be a real battle of wits in the passing game. Memphis is 21st in the country and Top 3 in the AAC, churning out 282.9 yards per game. But the Owls are a Top 10 unit defending the pass, surrendering 159.2 yards per contest.
Memphis has scored at least 20 points in every game this year and have cracked the 30-point plateau six times, averaging 34.2 points per game on the season.
Despite going 2-3 in their last five, Rice has only allowed one team to score than 24 points and are allowing 23.3 points per game on the season.
The Owls are 3-1-0 against the spread in their last four as betting underdogs in each, while the Tigers are 1-5-0 ATS in their last six, each time as a betting favorite.
This has emotional letdown game all over it. Memphis is still more talented and should beat the Owls, but moving past the big picture disappointment with the current task at hand might take a few quarters to shake off.
Rice vs Memphis same-game parlay (SGP)
Rice +9.5
Seth Henigan Under 273.5 passing yards
Mario Anderson Over 109.5 rushing yards
Memphis QB Seth Hanigan is coming off his biggest statistical effort this season, putting up 454 yards passing and four TDs in the UTSA loss. He’s got a bit of a high total against Rice and that passing defense, which has not allowed any QB this season to reach 260 yards passing.
Henigan has topped this total just four times on the year, once against FCS school North Alabama, as well as North Texas and UTSA, teams ranked in the bottom four pass defenses in the AAC. The highest ranked pass defense was against Navy, seventh in the AAC.
That plays into the next part of the parlay, and Tigers’ running back Mario Anderson Jr. He is coming off a rough outing against the Roadrunners, with just 53 yards on 12 carries, but he did score his 14th TD of the year.
Anderson had rushed for at least 117 yards in four of his previous five games, and although this is a very high total of 109.5, running the ball might be the best way to puncture the Owls’ defense.
Rice’s run defense is middle of the pack in the AAC and 84th in the nation, giving up 157.9 yards per game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rice vs Memphis odds
Rice vs Memphis live odds
Rice vs Memphis opening odds
- Rice vs. Memphis spread: Memphis -10.5
- Rice vs. Memphis moneyline: Rice +300, Memphis -385
- Rice vs. Memphis Over/Under: 52.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Rice vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis
- Rice has yet to win a game on the road this season (0-4-0).
- The Tigers are 5-0 at home this year, but just 2-3 against the spread.
- The Owls have cashed the Under in four of their last five.
Rice vs Memphis betting trend to know
Ten of Memphis' last 11 games against conference opponents have gone Over the total. Find more college football betting trends for Rice vs Memphis.
Rice vs Memphis game info
| Location: | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, 11-8-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Rice vs Memphis latest injuries
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