Dear Pac-2, we here at the “Friday 40-Yarder” understand you were fighting for your lives. We get that. The world did it to you.
But did you have to go raid the Mountain West during the season? Could you not have waited until there were no actual college football games for three straight days to tilt the news cycle back to realignment? Did you really want to change this weekend’s narrative from scorned in-state rivals to the next versions of poachers?
Oregon State and Washington State had chances for the best revenge this weekend, facing Oregon and Washington, respectively. These rivalries are what make college football great, and an upset in either game this weekend would have felt like universal vindication for what was done to the Beavers and Cougars.
Instead, now our lonely hearts empathize with UNLV, Nevada, San Jose State, and New Mexico — along with Air Force, Wyoming, and Utah State.
And, most of all, with Hawai’i.
Woe to the college football picks who embrace the Hawai’i test multiple times per season. The test will live on, though its stakes and opponents may just be diminished.
There are 7 Hawaii Tests this season.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 23, 2024
Tomorrow's midnight ET kick is going to be a hard one for me to stay up through, though we all know I will, after I am ...
LIVE AT 9 A.M. with @Covers_Caley for College Football 134.
It'll air on the @Covers account as well as on YouTube.
College football betting news for Week 3
- Genuine Playoff Implications
- Group of Five Upset Hopes
- Bonus Bet from Douglas
- Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
- A Bet for Every Saturday Window
- Tuesday recap
- Saturday sneak peek
Douglas's CFB news and notes
Genuine Playoff Implications
Is there a game this weekend where both teams have genuine College Football Playoff hopes? Sorry, Badgers, but Alabama at Wisconsin does not fit that description. Memphis at Florida State may have once, but no longer, given the Seminoles lost two ACC games before anyone else lost even one.
Sadly, there is not such a game. The closest argument to one would be Friday night’s Arizona at Kansas State matchup. Both teams entered the year as trendy picks to win the Big 12 — though let’s make one thing clear, this is a non-conference game, and if you suggest a lifelong Big 12 fan go to it, no matter how tongue-in-cheek the suggestion may be, you will be sternly rebuked.
That is why this game is not one with genuine Playoff implications. Maybe Arizona could surprise the world and run the table this year, no longer needing to win the Big 12 title game to reach the Playoff. However, this thought is meant for “genuine” Playoff hopes, and a 12-0 Arizona has never crossed anyone’s mind as plausible in 2024.
Kansas State can dream of that 12-0 run after needing some luck to survive Tulane last week, but its offensive line worries were on display, and these still cannot be considered realistic Playoff hopes without a Big 12 championship.
The total for tonight's Arizona-Kansas State is up to as high as 61.
— Andrew Caley (@Covers_Caley) September 13, 2024
THIS IS WHY YOU TUNE IN TO THE TUESDAY EDITION OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL 134!!
Where I gave out Over 58... pic.twitter.com/6Is09VJ07w
Group of Five Upset Hopes
Speaking of Tulane, the Green Wave’s vague Playoff hopes can survive last week’s loss to Kansas State if they upset Oklahoma on Saturday.
Tulane’s defense is more primed than perhaps anticipated in the first year of Jon Sumrall. The Green Wave returned four starters among its front-seven, that consistency allowing them to continue to punish the run.
Admittedly, Oklahoma does not run the ball much, doing so 8.2% less than game state would usually expect thus far this season, per cfb-graphs via collegefootballinsiders.com. However, there is a reason for that: The Sooners offensive line is an issue, and rushing for all of 86 yards on 26 rushes (3.3 yards per attempt, sacks adjusted) against a paltry Houston defense last week underscored this Oklahoma concern.
The Green Wave will focus on stopping the Sooners’ passing attack (much more of a worry), but if Oklahoma sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold is off at all, Tulane could suddenly get feisty.
Tulane catches my attention at 20-to-1. ... But the Green Wave needs to win this weekend at Oklahoma.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 11, 2024
Take the +425 and enjoy a payout this weekend, roll it over if you see fit.
This is not a pick of Tulane (+430 at FanDuel), but it is a suggestion to keep an eye on that game and watch the Green Wave’s Playoff hopes perhaps rise.
(No, Colorado State fans, potentially upsetting Colorado does not burgeon your Playoff hopes. The Buffaloes do not much help your résumé.)
Bonus Bet from Douglas
This week’s best bets column ran five picks long, and some of them were made with egregious amounts of confidence. Yet, two more bets were left on the cutting room floor. One because of a hook, and one because of a lackluster amount of analysis.
Both have moved to more advantageous numbers in the last 24 hours, meaning that both should now be hit. Let’s start with the removal of the hook.
As of Thursday midday, Vanderbilt was a 10.5-point favorite at Georgia State. Needing double digits from the Commodores on the road is a bold ask. This is, despite being 2-0.
But Georgia State is worse off. The Panthers are in a terrible position this year, done a disservice by former head coach Shawn Elliott leaving after spring practices had begun.
Ponder that timing. Cringe at it. It’s a reality. The Georgia State roster felt the pain of that timing, with many players leaving but few of merit able to be brought in.
The Commodores should clear their preseason win total this weekend, and they should do it with a double-digit win. This line moving to -9.5 on Friday makes this now a value bet, the hook working in our favor rather than counter to our hopes.
This week, those nine ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 9, 2024
Arizona: +7 at Kansas St. on Friday.
Michigan: -22.5 v. Arkansas St.
Boston College: +16.5 at Missouri
Buffalo: -4.5 v. UMass
Washington: -4 v. Wazzu in Seattle.
Georgia St: +10 v. Vanderbilt
San Jose St: -19 v. Kennesaw St
UCLA: +2.5 v. Indiana https://t.co/NaUR9ce9bS
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Vanderbilt -9.5 (-108 at FanDuel)🏈
Bonus Bet from Douglas, pt. ii
Now, about the lackluster amount of analysis. Covers has certain editorial standards, and one of them is: Do not file a handicap where the entire text is repeating “Wake Forest is bad” until the expected word count minimum is met.
Corporate overlords frown upon that kind of scribbling.
Here is the thing: Wake Forest is bad.
When Virginia averages +0.083 expected points added (EPA) per dropback against you, finding success on 44.5% of dropbacks, you know your defense is woefully lost.
To face Mississippi when that is your reality, good luck Dave Clawson. You’re going to need it.
Some look at this lofty spread and worry the Demon Deacons may piece together a pair of backdoor touchdowns to slip inside the cover. However, the 2024 version features a weak passing game and hardly ever runs the ball.
There, that was nearly 100 words of analysis. Add in those original four, “Wake Forest is bad,” and it is a full hundred.
🏈Bonus Bet from Douglas: Mississippi -20.5 (-112 at FanDuel)🏈
A Bet for Every Saturday Window
You do not need to always have a bet down. You shouldn’t. You should bet only when you see clear value. But if you insist on having at least one piece of action for every moment of Saturday...
12:00 ET — Miami (OH) +3.5 (-105 at BetMGM) pairs nicely with the Under 46.5 against Cincinnati, if you are inclined to live boldly. If wanting to live even bolder, the RedHawks are +145 on the moneyline at BetMGM.
3:30 ET — West Virginia -2.5 at Pittsburgh
7:00 ET — Eastern Michigan +105 (at Caesar’s) vs. Jacksonville State
After Dark — San Diego State at Cal Under 49 (-110 at Caesars)
College Football 134 Tuesday recap + Saturday sneak peek
Tuesday recap
“College Football 134” records twice a week for a pile of reasons. One of them is to try to give you a headstart on some weekend lines. Take Utah at Utah State, for example. That was a best bet on Tuesday at Under 46.5. As of Friday afternoon, it sits at 43.5.
There is value to be had to subscribing and listening to that Tuesday episode as it hits your feeds on Tuesday nights or perhaps on your Wednesday morning commute.
⚡️Listen to Tuesday's episode of the Covers 134 pod here (EMBED SPOTIFY LINK BELOW)⚡️
Saturday sneak peek
There is not a question Douglas Farmer and Andrew Caley would not answer during the Saturday morning live show. All you have to do is ask it. Preferably, it is about college football. Curious about Kennesaw State at San Jose State? Have at ‘em.
Wondering about “100 Miles of Hate”? Great.
But if you want to ask for life advice, what’s the worst that happens?
Check out the College Football 134 podcast Saturday pregame show at 9 a.m. ET on the Covers YouTube channel.
Not intended for use in MA.
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