Iowa hopes to keep pace with the leaders in the Big 10 when it travels to face Michigan State tonight.
The Hawkeyes have a schedule that sets up nicely for them, and at 2-1 in the Big Ten, they’re right in the thick of the conference title race. They’ll hope to punish a Spartan defense that has been hurt badly of late by strong rushing attacks, while Michigan State looks to avoid falling below .500 on the season.
I explain why fans of scoring might be disappointed in my Iowa vs. Michigan State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 19.
Iowa vs Michigan State prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 7.5 1Q (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
When it comes to offense, nobody’s going to confuse the Iowa Hawkeyes with the likes of Ohio State or Oregon. After all, there’s a reason Iowa has typically been involved in the lowest pregame totals in recent memory.
But the Michigan State Spartans held both of those high-powered, explosive offenses in check early in recent games. The Ducks didn’t find the scoreboard when they hosted the Spartans until the final seconds of the first quarter, when Dillon Gabriel scored on a nine-yard run with 22 ticks remaining.
And when Ohio State rolled into East Lansing two weeks ago, they were met rudely by a Spartan defense that limited the Buckeyes to a single field goal in the opening stanza. The Buckeyes would score less than a minute into the second quarter, but it came on the back of a 14-play, 80-yard drive.
The Buckeyes were forced to run 25 plays in their opening two possessions to gain 143 yards, and that’s with a very dangerous passing attack. Iowa doesn’t have that aspect to its offense, and it’s a big reason why the Hawkeyes rank 14th in run rate and 11th in rushing yards per game.
Iowa scored 40 points last week against Washington, but only seven of those came in the opening quarter. Kaleb Johnson’s six-yard touchdown run with 1:33 left on the clock marked the only points in the opening stanza, after Washington missed a field goal to end a 14-play drive that chewed up half the quarter.
Both offenses rank in the 100s in yards per game, and both have serious flaws. Michigan State has been awful in the red zone offensively this season, but its defense is one of the best in the conference inside the 20. The Spartans also can’t protect their quarterback, a big reason they rank 97th in third-down distance.
Michigan State’s last three games have featured a total of 17 first-quarter points, while Iowa has yet to see more than seven points scored in the opening 15 minutes of its six games thus far. Michigan State also has one of the best punters in the country as Ryan Eckley is averaging 48 yards per punt, which also helps force long drives when the Spartan offense can’t produce.
The Hawkeyes will run the ball — and the clock — early and often in this one, but Sparty has shown they will force long drives early. On the other side, the Spartans will struggle to move it at all against an elite Iowa defensive front.
Combine the two, and you’ve got a recipe for another low-scoring opening quarter.
Iowa vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5 1Q
Kaleb Johnson first Iowa TD
Iowa -5.5
Michigan State has been solid in the red zone, but its defense will be no match for Kaleb Johnson. Only Ohio State has kept him from finding the end zone multiple times, and he rushed for two while also housing a reception in Iowa’s win over Washington last weekend.
But perhaps more impressively, Johnson has scored Iowa’s opening touchdown in every game outside of the opener against Illinois State. I’m backing him to do so yet again.
As the game goes along, Michigan State’s defense will wear down. It’s been a similar script in each of Sparty’s last three games, as the offense is unable to maintain drives and the defense keeps getting put on the field.
Iowa will wear them down with the run, and once that happens, Aidan Chiles will be unable to rally them. The Hawkeyes will cover the 5.5-point spread as they simply pound the Spartans into submission.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Michigan State odds
Iowa vs Michigan State live odds
Iowa vs Michigan State opening odds
- Iowa vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan State +6.5
- Iowa vs. Michigan State moneyline: Iowa -275, Michigan State +220
- Iowa vs. Michigan State Over/Under: 41.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Iowa vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Iowa is a 5.5-point favorite, coming down a point from Sunday. The Hawkeyes have been favored in five of their six games this season, but they’re just 3-3 ATS and lost outright to Iowa State. The Spartans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs, and 3-1 ATS in conference play.
- Iowa’s strengths match up perfectly with Michigan State’s weaknesses, especially in the turnover department. Chiles will once again cough up the ball a time or two, and Johnson will be key in ensuring the Hawkeyes win by at least a touchdown.
- The total of 39.5 is the lowest of any college football game this slate. It’s actually come down from 41.5, where it opened on Sunday, with the public thinking it simply wasn’t low enough.
- This is a very tricky number. Iowa’s defense ranks Top 20 in EPA/run and rushing yards allowed, and Michigan State’s passing game has been abysmal. As such, it’ll be tough for Sparty to contribute to the total. That said, I could see Iowa getting a backdoor Over with some big second-half runs, not to mention having some short fields with the frequency that Chiles turns the ball over. I lean Under, but I’m staying away from this one.
Iowa vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Iowa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+7.20 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Michigan State.
Iowa vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-19-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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